About the parliamentary elections results in Abkhazia

On April 3, 2012, the long cycle of political struggle came to the end which should answer the question: what persons the Abkhazian voter wishes to see in the head of state? There is no doubt that the choice is done by Abkhazian voter, without the help of the political strategists.

The intense, sometimes fierce fight between “party in power” and opposition in Abkhazia played obviously positive role in a question of elections honesty – the ticklish question, as always. The Abkhazian opposition put under the doubt the results of elections throughout several election campaigns, but this time, obviously, the elective mechanisms are debugged so well, supervision is made so carefully that nobody could doubt the honesty and transparency of the last elections. The majority of politically active population has no claims of the equal rights provided to all candidates for propaganda, for performances on the state television, and, especially, in the independent press.

The elections of March 10-24, 2012 were planned in advance in the republic, the preparation for them went long ago. However any political scientist, any expert was going to predict what will be the state of forces in new parliament. Only careful suppositions were made, whether the opposition or “party in power” will dominate in parliament. In fact, only the vote on the first, but politically extremely important issue, who should become a speaker, finally cleared up a situation and made obvious the state of forces.

For the last eight years (2004-2012) there was a fight between two forces in Abkhazia constantly: the members of Bagapsh and Khadjimba. The members of Bagapsh won on presidential election of 2004 in unequal conditions, having won a victory over the protege of “party in power” Raul Khadjimba and since then strongly took the leading positions in the republic. Several times the opposition tried to take the revenge, but each time suffered defeat. From time to time “the third force” interfered in fight – the members of Shamba, i.e. the supporters of the ex-head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia Sergey Shamba. The last surge in this fight occurred in the summer of 2011.

The Abkhazian voter had to solve a difficult problem on elections in August, 2011: whom to consider as the successor of suddenly died president Sergey Bagapsh – Alexander Ankvab or Sergey Shamba, who took the positions of the vice-president and the prime minister accordingly? As a result the victory was gained by Alexander Ankvab: the population took him as the successor of the political line of popular Bagapsh. The parliamentary elections of 2012 became the last hope for opposition. However the implementation of their plans was difficult. In spite of the fact that the elections were carried out on majority voted system, i.e. the separate campaign is carried out actually in each district, the general tendency appeared indestructible: there are no mass protest moods in the republic, no desire to bring the oppositional parliament to power.

Meanwhile during the winter of 2011-2012, there were the conversations in the republic that the strong parliament is necessary for Abkhazia; the oppositionists meant by this phrase the oppositional parliament. However, already the results of the first round showed that it is not necessary to expect the mass arrival of opposition to the power. One deputy in the first round and three in the second round were chosen from the main oppositional party organ FNUA (Forum of the National Unity). It isn't enough even to the measures of small Abkhazia.

The consolation of opposition served that fact that one deputy passed in the first round and two more passed in the second from pro-imperious party “United Abkhazia”. Besides the leader of “United Abkhazia” Daur Tarba lost in the first round and the leader of the Abkhazian opposition Raul Khadjimba got 73 % of votes in the first round. Thus, the majority in parliament suddenly appeared at “independent” deputies, i.e. standing for parliament by petition. (Under the Abkhazian laws only 200 signatures are required for this purpose and it is not difficult to collect them). Two more parties, aspiring to play a role of “centrists”, i.e. Communistic and Party of economic development, also couldn't lead any candidate for parliament.

However nobody considered “independent” candidates as “the third force” in Abkhazia. The matter is that the legislation of Abkhazia allows to nominate only 11 candidates (a third of the Deputy corps) according to party lists. Therefore some candidates belonging to this or that party, simply didn't get to these lists and conducted the election campaign independently. Today, having appeared in parliament, they were divided on political sympathies at once.

These sympathies also were shown in the choice of the new speaker. Raul Khadjimba applied for this post first of all, the names of businessman Arthur Mikvabia (he is not so elderly, he appeared the oldest of the deputies; the new deputy corps appeared completely consisting of the men, the unique woman is Emma Gamisonia who is elected as the vice speaker) and also Adgur Kharazia and Valeri Bganba were called. Exactly the last one, the former head of administration of the Gagrinsk region, also was elected as the speaker of parliament. 21 persons from 33 deputies (repeated elections are coming on two districts in May, 2012) voted for his candidate. 11 deputies voted for Raul Khadjimba nominated by his supporters.

It is possible to say that these 11 voices are that maximum quota which was received by the opposition in parliament. Thus, Alexander Ankvab strengthened the positions not to a lesser extent than he won on the presidential election on August, 2011. The names of four vice speakers confirm this assumption. They are Adgur Kharazia, Otari Tsvizhba, Emma Gamisonia and the former commander of the Armenian battalion Vagarshak Kosyan – they don't belong to opposition.

It should be noted, as the new speaker and vice speakers (except Kharazia) were elected as the deputies in the first round. It is necessary to say that the new speaker don't consider as the unconditional supporter of the president and it means that he, most likely, will have an independent position on all important questions. Bganba is the business manager, well-known to the inhabitants of the Gagrinsk region, was elected as the chairman of local meeting and is elected already as the deputy for three times. The last, very important circumstance: Bganba was elected as the deputy for the first time even on the eve of the Georgian-Abkhazian war.

Thus, there are preconditions for formation of the steady government in Abkhazia supported by the parliamentary majority. As the radical opposition isn't presented in the parliament management, it appeared on the “big-time politics” periphery. But also “big-time politics” will possibly give way to economy for a while in the next years. The republic hopes for revival of economic life that is impossible without the political stability.