Academician Nikolay Dobretsov: Russia has the triune task in the Arctic

The institutes in several scientific centers, namely Novosibirsk, Yakutsk, Tyumen are engaged in the Arctic researches in the Siberian office of the Russian Academy of Sciences … The Institute of oil and gas geology and geophysics of A.A.Trofimuk of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science very actively works in this direction. The Academician Nikolay Dobretsov who is the coordinator of the subprogramme “Complex researches of the Arctic shelf” of the program of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells about the problems of Russia in the Arctic:

Three tasks in the Russian Arctic

- All questions concerning the Arctic can be divided conditionally into three categories: the military-strategic, the questions connected with oil and gas production on a land and in the adjacent water area and the questions connected with the development of climate and development of transport ways, including the stable development of the Northern sea way.

The main thing in the strategic questions - can the shelf territory belong to Russia? Two hundredth mile zone is already defined and it doesn't cause any questions. And the territory which is between the ridges of Lomonosov and Mendeleyev can become a zone of economic influence of Russia. If it will be proved that this is the continuation of the continent. Then this border can be specified according to the international marine law. In 2003, Russia already made an application to recognize this territory as a zone of its economic influence, but the special commission of the United Nations recognized this demand insufficiently reasonable.

Why this territory is necessary for us? Including to make it rather closed from the point of view of strategic questions. What kind of? – It is possible to guess between the lines …

We have the scientific coordination council which was formed by the Russian Academy of Sciences and “Rosnedra”. Quite big program which consists of three parts is developed for three years. The first is the specification of bottom relief as the border is carried out on an edge of an excess of a shelf and deep-water plains. The second part is geophysical profiles and the third is the project of Institute of Oceanology and the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science. Here it is a question of evolution of the Arctic taking into account the dating of breeds and the proof of that this piece, which else name as Arktida, existed for long ago and is an integral part of the continent. And it will be the most important justification along with geophysical profiles.

When the proofs will be prepared and shown, this territory can be defined by the United Nations as a zone of economic influence of Russia. The latest methods will be used. For example, seismography of the Arctic: the matter is about the depth of 110, 220, 430 and 640 kilometers. It becomes for the first time – and this is one of our achievements! Generally, all three tasks demand scientific support. We have the programs and the corresponding subprogrames.

Now the new unique possibilities appear after Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's visit to Tiksi and visit of station on the island Samoylovsky where some years the joint Russian-German expedition is carried out. Putin was unpleasantly struck that it was “hut on wobbly stilts” and gave an assignment to construct urgently the modern scientific station here. And it was constructed for about one year – last year it was put into operation. This station corresponds to all working conditions in the Arctic; here up to 50 people can live and pass winter.

The Germans are going to give us the steamship catamaran which can float on shoal, including, the delta of Lena. The Siberian Branches of the Russian Academy of Science together with the German party prepare the big program. There is a vessel construction project for drilling in the Arctic waters – the ice breaker “Aurora Borealis”. In the end of the year the ship tests will pass and further it will begin the drilling in the Arctic seas. It is possible to drill tens wells from this vessel, however, not so deep – to 500 meters. But it is important! The Germans invite Russia to take part in this project, but the special intergovernmental agreement for this purpose is necessary. Russia has own icebreaking fleet, but there are no special ships for drilling yet and isn't expected in the near future. It means, it is necessary to participate in the international program.

And the larger network of basic stations is necessary for us in the Arctic. There is a station on Spitsbergen, but it is necessary to put a question of its modernization. There is an offer on construction of the same modern station on the Russky Island near Taymyr. There was earlier an offer on station construction on Wrangel Island. If all these offers would be realized, we will have a basic network for researches in the Arctic. And, so to say, you will not make much in the Arctic for a short while and only by the helicopter– the modern infrastructure, a network of stations where people can live for a long time, different types of transport are necessary.

The monitoring of climate and ice is very important also. The minimum of ice was in 2007 and further, the ice started to grow over again. The cold weather was setting in the Arctic again, therefore the legend that an obligatory warming waits for us is only a legend. Now it is already obvious. There will be the fluctuations in the next century: then will become warmer or become colder; the ice in the Arctic will grow or lessen … But the general fall of temperature, but not the warming will be by the end of century – such is a modern forecast. And the network of stations in the Arctic is necessary for us to know it more exactly. The Arctic is a kitchen of weather.

Fight for the demand

The data concerning a shelf were presented in 2003. But the tone in the Commission of the United Nations is set by the Canadians and Americans who are generally not so interested … There was a lack of data in the first demand, first of all, of course, no data on geophysical profiles which would confirm that here there are well remained pieces of a continental bark at least. The paleomagnetic data is also necessary – about the absolute age. More difficult system of proofs is required; it now also prepares.

We will represent the proofs not to ourselves, but the international commission. And the tone is set there not simply by the Canadians and Americans, but the experts of the highest level. And we should be approached with the same measures! The task of all Academy of Sciences is to lift our justification on the necessary level! It is necessary to sate it with the actual material and to present the results of modeling, with which it will be difficult to find fault.

2013 year is a term of our demand. It can be repeated only in 10 years. But if our demand would be rejected for the second time, we have few chances that this offer will be ever considered in general according to the international law. Today 245 demands are in the United Nations worldwide. All are interested to expand two hundredth mile zone and this tendency is clear. Resources on a land are already divided – either by the states or the international corporations. Resources of an adjacent part of the ocean aren't divided yet and the competition increases.

Many people aspire to the Arctic

The Arctic is the most direct way from Asia to Europe. The time will be spent to 3-4 times more on a route through the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal where there are different events and unstable situation. Therefore equally there is an interest of the European and Asian countries. If the economy quickly develops, it demands both an import and export. For this reason the Northern sea way is one of the major transport ways, but now it isn't so mastered yet because of the climate.

But the interest is not only in the Northern sea way, but also in oil and gas resources therefore all will be yearning in consortia on the development of the North Sea. It is said that these resources are still the long-term future. But it remains remote if we aren't engaged in it today! And if we will be engaged, so we would be ready by 2050. And even by 2030 in relation to the Kara Sea. But if we will not be engaged, so there would be nothing to the end of the century …

The main thing in the Arctic is infrastructure, but we have lost it considerably. We had good operating ports in East Arctic: Tiksi, Pevek. They function today on 10 percent from the possibilities. The same as Igarka and many other … In the Western Arctic the ports are substantially already restored and even the new are constructed in connection with the development of fields on Yamal.

Of course, the Norwegians, Canadians and Americans are the leaders from the point of view of the creation of scientific stations. The Americans set the tone on the level of researches, but also they can't work without stations. There are Norwegian and international stations on Spitsbergen, the Danish and international are in Greenland, the international, Canadian and American are on Alaska and in Northern Canada. We should have at least four modern stations and also the ports, airfields, meteorological support …

And it is necessary to begin today - tomorrow will be late.