Alexander Ivanov: “Common people in Kyrgyzstan support integration with Russia!”

The chairman of the Russian Unifying Union of Compatriots in Kyrgyzstan, the responsible secretary of Public advisory council at the president of the country on interethnic and interfaith development Alexander Ivanov answered the questions of our portal about the political situation in the republic:

- How does the republic treat the possible introduction the Customs Union?

- We have a group of young and vigorous politicians which is incited sharply against it, speaks: we can’t enter there! Also speak everywhere — why. They constantly act on this subject in different audiences, print articles in mass media. Regularly make statements in this respect. The essence of their arguments is reduced to that Kyrgyzstan if enters into Customs Union, will lose the sovereignty, independence that in the country then the general double-exit courtyard will be.

The common, usual, not politicized population of Kyrgyzstan, you communicate with these people every day in the market, taxi, on the streets, speaks so: would Putin come to us as soon as possible! Would we become the part of Russia as soon as possible!

There is no trust to present political elite. People consider that Kyrgyzstan can’t simply rise without Russia. If we now held a referendum about accession to Russia, 80% would come, and 90% from them would vote FOR! For accession to Russia.

— Many countries show interest to the country too?

- There is interest to Kyrgyzstan, of course. We have all Mendeleyev’s table here, there is a lot of uranium. There are always people who wish to use it. Chinese go while slowly — not really hurry. Now Turkey behaves most actively. They are both in banks and in business … The president has a big business in Turkey — all knows it. Therefore Turks also behave in Kyrgyzstan as kings.

But though the latest events please: Russia came to economy. Rosneft came and already redeemed the airport Manas. Rosgidro is now here too.

— Won't the American military base be already exactly?

- Almazbek Atambayev told that it is indecent to be the military base at the civil airport that it will be removed. But why he didn’t tell that the base will be output out of borders of the republic? Probably, already there is any certain arrangement taking into account the Turkish interests.

The sense is that the military base will slowly but surely be relocated to the south of Kyrgyzstan. For example, in Batkentsk area. There both Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan is much closer. There is no airfield there now, but I think that it is not a big problem to construct it. But this is my personal opinion.

-— There is such feeling that there is a lot of nonprofit organizations in Kyrgyzstan …

- Earlier civil society could enter any political processes through supervision, promotion etc. Now all this is stopped! It is possible to work now only through political parties. However, all active politicians who are today in the republic, have the NPOs.

They created generally those political parties where the present active youth just enters. Literally everyone has organization! And here they can get grants: American, European … That is, the system of financing of political parties via the NPO mechanism is created. And this scheme works in Kyrgyzstan.

- There is a point of view that the policy in Kyrgyzstan in many respects is determined by the well-known Dordoy Bazaar.

- People who though are a little grounded politically, they understand that the illicit goods from China won’t arrive to the Customs Union. And, so the local won’t be able to earn on it! After all here today it is the most important to buy cheaper from Chinese and then to sell further to Russia through Dordoy. There is an important point: today in Kyrgyzstan there is very cheap customs clearance. At an average salary in 100−150 dollars there are many cars as at you. It is already impossible to go across Bishkek — so many cars that there are continuous jams. The reason is simple: quite good car in Kyrgyzstan now can be bought twice cheaper, than in Russia.

We will enter the Customs Union and the luck will end, after all it is necessary to live by rules. Dordoy is the whole city, there precisely a quarter of Bishkek is … Also it is the main transit point on a way of goods from China to Russia. Here now some owners of containers begin slowly to remove money from Dordoy and put in real estate. They understand that if Kyrgyzstan will enter the Customs Union, the market habitual by all will die. Well, and politicians will exploit all this.

If Kyrgyzstan doesn’t enter the Customs Union, all would remain: the goods from China will go, and it would be resold and stolen again. There will be exactly the same lawlessness everywhere. After all there is a smuggling shaft from China. Drugs, weapon, much still that goes where there are only Kyrgyz frontier guards. But if we enter the Customs Union, it is clear that there not only they will already stand!

- Again we come back to a subject of the Customs Union. Probably, it is very actual for the republic.

- Certainly! Thus the common people want that Kyrgyzstan entered both the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union. It is clear that many problems of the country then will be solved.
For example, at the moment Kazakhstan doesn’t pass our meat, other products through border. It is all of pure policy — there are no other reasons. All know that meat from Kyrgyzstan is the best that it is impossible to compare with Kazakhstan meat. There is no any secret: our meat is environmentally clean.

Kazakhstan is afraid of the competition, but, nevertheless, Kazakhs prefer to get our meat. And expose such requirements to our production that don’t show to own at all. They are simply far-fetched. But the way out all the same in Kazakhstan was found by consumers: a half of the country eats our meat which is transported by smuggling through Chu river.

The only production which now is in the country is sewing. Production of Bishkek can be found in any boutiques of the largest cities of the CIS. If you are told that is sewed in Turkey — it means actually in Bishkek. Here everything is done: the best-known brands of France, Italy …

- How the political situation looks now? After all Kyrgyzstan passes from the presidential republic to parliamentary.

- Introduction of the parliamentary republic in Kyrgyzstan is Omurbek Tekebayev’s idea. He several times tried to become the president of the country, but unsuccessfully. His Ata-Jurt party is obviously nationalist sense.

And the president Atambayev is compelled to carry out the decision on transition from presidential to the parliamentary republic. He measures every day the term of the powers: how many it remained to him? He speaks about it on all big actions. The main point is that according to our constitution Atambayev can’t run for presidency for the second time. And he simply dreams to stay this term up to the end! It isn’t casual that he always emphasizes that won’t change the constitution.

In Russia the president Atambayev is called as the pro-Russian politician, but it isn’t so. He is a politician from the category «both yours, and ours». Our all politicians would dance for a five-copeck coin, as they say! But Atambayev understands that conclusions from last revolution should be drawn — doesn’t want to step on Bakiyev’s rake by no means. He doesn’t want to offend Russia somehow, because then hу would be taken away tomorrow.

Here it is interesting thing. In 2010 during events there was such euphoria in society — people were sure that it is Russia helped to deal with Bakiyev. And people thanked Russia for this support. There was such interesting fact: all Bishkek channels during crisis were under the Russian flag. To show: as if they are the Russian television …

- Kyrgyzstan is the country where there are revolutions regularly …

- Kyrgyzstan is considered in Central Asia not only as the country with the highest level of Internetization, but also it is considered the most democratic republic. Thus always our revolutions are mentioned. It is necessary to tell that events are always developed not as, say, in Ukraine. Our revolution keeps within day — two. The crowd goes to the White house where the power sits — the president runs, the militia runs up, and it isn’t visible anywhere. Then the city is lefy to crowd for day — two on worry, and next day there is the silence already.

If we remembered Ukraine, I want to tell that the Kyrgyz option of 2010 now is just applied there. Bishkek was taken, the president Bakiyev ran to the south. He tried to organize anti-meeting there as Yanukovych, but it didn’t turn out. Then he ran away to Nazarbayev by helicopter and further from there. In Ukraine the same it is observable now.

— What politicians are supported by the USA?

- America not only puts in Kyrgyzstan on nationalists — it really influences them. Technologies are very similar to the Maidan. There is one young politician from that group about which I spoke — Ravshan Zheenbekov. He studied both in Russia and in the USA. And worked in the power too. He was in Ata-Meken party, but left it. Now this party is in opposition, it wasn’t included into ruling coalition.

Kamchybek Tashiyev, the leader of «Ata-Jurt», always opposed the Russian language and Russians. What is interesting, Russian is opposed by that who have problems with it! But the most interesting that the same Tashiyev during events ran away not somewhere, but to Russia. And he left the family for safety there. Now there is a pressure on this party, its many members who held high posts both at Akayev and Bakiyev. Many now accuse of economic crimes therefore they are in hiding.

Zheenbekov went to opposition too, began to visit Maidan in Ukraine, even acted there. Obviously he accumulated experience. And now it is possible to state that the actions in inverted commas will begin soon.

We already had one Maidan in 2005 — only it was called kurultay. Then on March 17 everything began, and revolution began already on March 24. Undoubtedly there are those who experience of Ukraine is ready to introduce to us. It can be repeated also in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan; in Kazakhstan while it isn’t present. The emphasis will be placed to the south again.

- What are the forecasts for succession of events in 2014?

- There will be a restless year exactly. In March the nationalists already will start the boat shaking. There are always dissatisfied with the power. Especially if situation in economy is not brilliant. Further money will simply be necessary. Last time 500 catfishes (300 roubles) paid for that to stand and shout with the poster — it is a large sum for many people.

Responsible political forces? We have no such. And the third revolution in Kyrgyzstan will happen — not in the spring, but in the fall! It is inevitable. But now will be in a different way. I think that extreme now can make Russians. And, it wasn’t before. For example, in last revolution of 2010 the emphasis was placed on Jews. Discussed that Bakiyev’s wife, Tatyana Vasilyevna is not the Russian, but the Jew. And in an environment of the omnipotent son of president Maxim was people with the corresponding surnames. Many mass media then printed the poster in Bishkek: «Jews, go away!"

— How the president Atambayev can move himself in such situation?

- We have such national myth. The essence is reduced to that a gold deposit Kumtor will provide all Kyrgyzstan for years forward, and we will prosper, without being troubled with any cares. The share capital is divided in a proportion 50 on 50 with Canadians, and it causes big discontent of opposition. It considers that the share of the Kyrgyz party can’t be less than 70% in any way. That the Kyrgyz party won’t be able to operate all this difficult complex at all, it isn’t taken into account.

The people are given one thought: Kumtor is ours. Kumtor is the rescue, it is necessary to nationalize it! I think that it will be the first point on a way to new disorders, and the second — complications on border with Tajikistan. There it is very easy to develop a situation in any party, considering very difficult relations of two countries. You know that sometimes there was firing on border already.

Further can be so. Once a year the question of confidence to the government can be discussed if it would be brought. In March it can just be! And then Almazbek Atambayev has only two ways. If he says that trusts the government, he is obliged to dissolve the parliament which has voted for a vote of no confidence. And if it isn’t?

There is a big temptation at the president suddenly to declare parliamentary elections! In due time it was made successfully by Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Then he held the presidential elections a year earlier. All reasons are obvious: the opposition wasn’t prepared, there is no turmoil, the economy didn’t fall yet up to the end … Why not to hold elections?! In this case the parliamentary.

It will allow to clean «Ata-Jurt» and already discrediting «Ar-namys» («Advantage»). The president Atambayev in such scenario will be able to build elite under himself, and then it won’t be necessary to worry for the powers. In such option he will precisely stay till 2017. And there everything will begin in a new way …