Bobo Lo: China has still the immature foreign policy …

The head of programs of Russia and Eurasia of Royal institute of the international relations Bobo Lo is the known expert in the field of foreign policy of China. In the Centre of the European reforms in London he worked as the director of programs of studying of Russia and China. Besides, the Australian political scientist and the diplomat wrote a set of works, among them: “Vladimir Putin and revolution of the Russian foreign policy” and “An axis by calculation: Moscow, Beijing and new geopolitics”.

Having meeting with young Russian politicians, Bobo Lo answered the most different questions:

Arab world and democracy

The Arab world will remain so monotonous, as well as today. There is a various political culture and various regimes in this world and similar variety will remain. The legitimacy tries to get very not attractive authoritative regimes, including by alliances with the West. Saudi Arabia will look for legitimacy of the regime through Islam. Similar regimes will zealously defend the thesis, that exactly they are the main pillar and are defenders of Islam. Perhaps, with any changes …

For example, the women will be allowed to drive the cars in Saudi Arabia through any time. But it seems to me that Saudi Arabia remains the most traditionalist state, in the same way, as well as Yemen, despite quasi-revolutionary changes there. And in other countries we will see big liberalization: it is a question of Libya or Egypt. Certainly, it is possible to say that the Muslim Brotherhood came to the power in Egypt however it doesn't mean the Islamic fanaticism! Not at all…

I believe that the forms of Islam and a political regime in the Islamic countries will be very various. What of the Arab countries will be the most democratic? It seems to me that the prospects of Libya are rather good, prospects of Egypt – are also very good. I think that in some years Iran becomes democratic. I’m not sure about Azerbaijan. To tell the truth, I don't see the processes of early democratization in this state – partly because of mister Aliyev and his clan. The countries of the Mediterranean pool and, of course, Turkey become more democratic countries. Though the last becomes also more Muslim country.

Why China supports Assad in Syria?

So, why China supports Assad in Syria? Syria means very little to China in a context of interests – the relations with Moscow for Beijing is much more interesting! Therefore, there is a question how the Chinese perceive Russia. There are, of course, different measurements, but China aspires to good relations with Russia that Russia didn't become a problem on a way of the Chinese interests. Let's say there is a problem with the USA and China in an ideal would like that Russia supported it, well, in the last resort, won’t disturb …

China understands that Siriya is very important question for president Putin. Also there is no sense to break a spear concerning a question which for China doesn't possess great value. But thus the Chinese authorities understand a priority of the national sovereignty and non-interference: yesterday Libya, today Syria and tomorrow may be China or Russia! Therefore, it is obvious that it is necessary to kill the principles in a germ, allowing the intervention in national affairs on the humanitarian bases …

There is one more factor. We speak about the Chinese civilization and culture, as about numbering many millennia. Everything is right, however the modern Chinese foreign policy is very recent phenomenon, to which no more than 30 years. Throughout the millennia the Chinese perception of foreign policy consisted that the world comes to China. To the Celestial Empire … In any way on the contrary! Therefore, it is possible to say that China has actually immature foreign policy. It seems to me that the foreign policy culture is in China is at an early stage in many respects.

How does China see itself?

Chinese don't see themselves as the developing great power, but as the reviving great power returning to a place in the world after rather long period of historical humiliation.

On the one hand, China thinks that it is remarkable. But on the other hand they are alarmed that something can go not in proper way. Therefore they also say: we are the developing country in the world. But China doesn't want to be in vanguard. When in America say about “the big two”, that America and China have to rule the world, China answers: by no means! We aren't ready on a similar configuration, we don't need leadership, after all leadership means a headache … But on the other hand, they notice: well, “the big two” is the interesting idea …