Central Asia: water is a policy!

At the economic forum “The European dilemmas or rivalry” which has passed in Poland, the one of the most interesting reports was devoted to… Central Asia. The subject was declared so: “Water problems of Central Asia”. The author is the Russian mountain engineer-geophysicist Leonid Papyrin.

Even in 1967 he arrived for the work to Tajikistan by the personal invitation for the organization of specialized party and introduction of geophysical methods in practice of engineering and geological, hydro-geological and geoecological researches. He worked as the chief of Pamir geophysical party, about all Tajikistan visited by the car and flew by the helicopter. In 1994 he was compelled to leave the country as the refugee in connection with closing of Pamir party because of departure of all its experts … Now Leonid Papyrin works in the Center of the Regional Geophysical and Geoecological Researches GEON of V.V. Fedynsky.

Water problems are the most important in the relations between the former federal republics of Central Asia. Experts predict the interstate conflicts in the region because of water. The situation becomes complicated according to Leonid Papyrin, that “in the normal states the water problems are ecological and economic. And Central Asia try to politicize this problem”.

At our request the author of the report “Water problems of Central Asia” shared the conclusions of rather today's condition of a problem and possible succession of events in the near future:

1. The current state of Sarez Lake represents the greatest danger to the states of Central Asia. The automobile highway of Dushanbe-Khorugh (on that site where it passes on the coast of Pyanj) will be destroyed as a result of Sarez accident. All bridges through the river Pyanj and Amu-Darya will be taken down or as a result of shift of the course become not necessary. The water improvement constructions in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, including both Kara Kum Canal and settlements on its coast will be destroyed. The railway communication between three republics will be interrupted. It is meaningful to start the rescue and recovery operations only after passing of the third high water, i.e. not earlier, than in a year after the accident beginning.

2. The simplest and cheapest way of fall of danger degree of Sarez Lake is the fall of lake level by strengthening of a filtration of water through a dam on 40-50 meters. Cost of the project is 30-35 million dollars.

3. The project of reduction of Sarez Lake in the guaranteed safe condition and construction of system of Pamir hydro power are described, which provided the following: the initial fall of level of Sarez Lake and construction of a protective dike and dam. The liquidation of all landslides and the weakened sites by means of the way of transformation of grandiose landslides to large fragmental scree, developed by the author.

The construction of four power plants and Pamir power ring. The general capacity of four Pamir hydro powers in the summer is 400 megawatt and on winter is 1300 megawatt. (Now the general capacity of two Pamir hydro powers makes 21 megawatt and also is planned its increase at 14 megawatt, i.e. totally 35 megawatt). The capacity of an offered power system is sufficient for lighting and heating of all settlements, supply by the electric power of all enterprises of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) and delivery of a part of electricity to export. A total cost of the project is 7 billion dollars. Cost of prospecting works is 700 million dollars.

4. Construction of Gudarinsk hydro power and the electrification of a valley of Bartang River will allow to strengthen the prospecting works in this area where there are prospects of opening of fields of ore minerals according to the geophysical materials. The production of ore minerals in the long term can compensate all costs of implementation of the project of taking of Sarez Lake in the guaranteed safe condition and system construction of Pamir hydro powers.

5. For drawing up of the construction project of Rogun
hydro power it is necessary to carry out the additional engineering researches and only after that to start the drawing up of the feasibility report and the final project. Costs of additional researches, elimination of the local failures, the probability of which is very great, considerably will increase the cost of a construction of Rogun hydro power. The biggest hydro power in the world is constructed in China and is called “Three gorges”. Its capacity exceeds five times the design capacity of Rogun hydro power – 18000 megawatt. Hydro power dam is concrete. Cost of construction of the Chinese hydro power is 25 billion dollars. Therefore, the cost of Rogun hydro power if its dam would be concrete is 5 billion dollars. But as the dam of Rogun hydro power is bulk, so the total cost of a construction of hydro power will be more expensive – 7 billion dollars.

The miscalculations of designers and unqualified engineering and geological researches can increase this figure. It is not excluded that after carrying out of modern researches it would be necessary to refuse the construction of Rogun hydro power and to look for other alignments and schemes for big hydro power on Vakhsh.

6. The water power resources of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are a gift of the nature and they should be used as much as possible. All know that the costs of researches and hydro construction in highlands in the conditions of the increased seismicity sharply increase, but it is the unique way of safe construction. Thus it is necessary to remember a saying: a miser pays twice and very miser - three times.

7. The payment should be taken for using water for any purposes. The countries of lower reaches should pay in summertime for using water to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and this payment should compensate all losses from hydro power work in the meliorative regime. Water is raw materials, and it is necessary to pay for it depending on its quantity, quality and timeliness of giving.

8. For Aral's recovery it is necessary to make study of the scheme of such project. In a northern part of the Caspian Sea where the mineralization of sea water is lower at the expense of influence of Volga, to construct the powerful pump station on the beach, capable to lift 1000 m ³ / second on height about 100 meters. Nearby to construct the nuclear power plant for electricity supply of this pump station. To lay the hydrotunnel from the pump station under a plateau of Ustyurt and when its target portal will appear on marks of 70-80 meters, the channel towards the Aral Sea. Gradually the sea will be filled with the sea water to the initial marks and will bury the polluted, great mineralized waters. At the same time to achieve the dream of reclamation experts of the 60th years – to construct the Trans-Caspian collector.

When the Aral Sea will reach a design point, to send the surpluses of water to the same collector and biological resources of Aral will be restored gradually and the ecological disaster will be liquidated.

The oil and gas companies will pass to drilling of wells from platforms as on the Caspian Sea. To consider Amu-Darya below Kerka as a regional drain and to send it to the Trans-Caspian collector too. The implementation of the offered project of restoration of the Aral Sea can incline the scales in favor of construction of the canal Sea of Azov — the Caspian Sea in the competition to the construction project of the second Volga-Don channel. And then the Trans-Caspian collector will be the ship canal connecting the Caspian Sea with Aral and Amu-Darya River. And Uzbekistan and Tajikistan become the sea states.

9. To carry out detailed hydro geophysical researches on all irrigated massifs of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for the purpose of studying of mineralization and filtration properties for modeling of optimum position of the main and irrigation channels with a waterproofing and the drains, guaranteeing the washing of soils. To provide the laying of water emphasis in the form of geo-membranes or a polyethylene film on sites with a superficial bedding of underground waters with a high mineralization that will promote the washing of soils too.

10. The states of Central Asia need to conclude the Agreement or the Contract among themselves according to which all hydro powers should be built in upper courses of the rivers, but on request of lower reaches they should work in improvement regime. Under the same agreement, the countries of lower reaches should liquidate all small reservoirs and construct new uniform system of irrigation and drainage channels and gradually pass to introduction of new water saving up technologies of farming and real reduction of a consumption of water.

11. It is necessary to create the organization of the International Atomic Energy Agency type with emergency powers in Central Asia for control of quality of construction of hydro power, the condition of reservoirs and lakes.

12. To oblige all states of Central Asia to make the declarations of safety on all GTS and to compensate the losses to neighboring countries in case of failures on them.

13. To create an integrated power grid and a common market of the countries of Central Asia for realization of production connected with water and power production.

14. To create in Tajikistan the engineering and geological center equipped with modern equipment for carrying out of high-quality engineering and geological researches, and, especially, geophysical. To invite the experts from Russia and other countries to work on a contract basis according to competition for provision with the modern work of the center.

15. The countries of lower reaches need to understand that if they won't pay for water or to invest money in hydro power construction, the economy of the countries of upper courses will come to complete decline and they will constantly conflict with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Namely the absence of monetary compensation for delivered water compels them to force the hydro power construction at any cost, without reflecting on quality of researches and constructions.

16. Water will benefit all countries of Central Asia only at their continuous and honest cooperation.