Elections in Egypt: the equation with many unknown quantities …

Marko Franko is known in Russia – he worked as the head of Representation of the European Commission. Now he holds a post of the ambassador of the European Union in Egypt and recently, being in Russia, has shared the vision of a situation in the country as which he considers as one of the leaders of the Arabian world and where already the first democratic elections will take place very soon after regime overthrow of president Hosni Mubarak:

- The analysis of that has occurred in Egypt is important not only from the point of view of region, but also all Europe as a whole. The word “revolution” I will quote at once because I’m not quite assured, whether it is the revolution? It is difficult somehow to characterize, as few time has passed: it absolutely nothing according to historical measures!

The Arabian spring has begun in December of last year and these events were absolutely not expected. When it has begun in Tunis all political analysts didn't expect something similar in Egypt. The movement, which swept off the ruling regimes, is actually not structured movement without clear ideology and leaders. Differently, it was the storm of national indignation.

All other countries in region, except for Lebanon, Palestine, Israel and Iraq, cope with the authoritative dictatorial regimes. There were high indicators of macroeconomic development in a number of the countries for the last some years, but from the point of view of distribution of incomes it didn't conduct to increase of well-being of the population. It is possible to ascertain the total absence of democratic freedom under Mubarak, the human rights were in a deplorable state. The regime of Mubarak became more and more antidemocratic for last years. The big stratification, the weakening middle class and the growing rich clique which is in power – all these conducted to intensity growth. Two sons of Mubarak had interest and actually controlled all investments into the country …

The army of Egypt has decided not to rescue the regime. Actually having taken Mubarak away, the military men have solved a question on successors – they have expelled the sons of Mubarak from game. Now we deal with a transition government which consists of a number of elderly respectable misters without any revealed concrete politics. There are three main forces in Egypt: army, the government and the bustling area. 20-25 % of economy is under control of military men.


The problem is to avoid the violent collisions. But there is no ideology and it is difficult to transform the democratic force in the street to democratic force in parliament. There are many not structured movements, the conservative forces much more solid. As to the population as a whole, so nobody knows how it will vote! The religious factor is important also – there is a danger of coming of Muslim fundamentalists to power.

Now all look at Tunis where the Islamic party has received 40 % of places in parliamentary elections. But Tunis is much more secular state than Egypt. The parliamentary elections will pass in the end of November in Egypt and the presidential elections will be already in the spring. It is the question how the military men will behave. They have got used to control the country, but don't want to manage it directly…

It is not enough the political debate and those concern the religion more likely. It is spoken too little about what should be the new constitution of the country. I think that conservative forces will get the upper hand more likely – they will have the majority in parliament. Probably, there will be a new version of naserism, but the value of the religious factor thus will increase. There will be a market economy with state intervention and all it would be supported by Islamism thanks to presence of corresponding party at parliament. Democracy will be more, but most likely the civil men won't order the military men. There will be more respect for the civil rights in the constitution, but the society becomes less secular.

And the government will have such problem: how to react to growing expectations and people requirements? And even if the parliament won't reflect the mood of a society, so the street will work as correcting factor. Egypt is not the first country in a transition period which transforms itself from authoritative to a democratic society. We saw it in Spain, Portugal, Greece.

Something should change and the second elections will much promising in the country in respect of advancement of democracy and interests of the people, where the youth rate of unemployment reaches 30 %. It doesn't see the prospects for itself and it will be reflected on the politics inevitably.