Elections in Kazakhstan: the parliament will be not the one-party exactly

The early election of the majilis’s deputies (the lower chamber of Kazakhstan parliament), elected under the party lists, is fixed on January 15, 2012. The deputy corps of the majilis consists of 107 persons; 98 deputies are elected under the party lists and nine deputies are delegated by the Assembly of the people of Kazakhstan.

The image formation of actively developing modern state became one of the diplomatic brands of Kazakhstan fir the last years. However the successes in social and economic sphere are disturbed invariably by the republic reputation in the field of free elections carrying out.

Kazakhstan speaks about the burning necessity of political reshuffle. “The parliament updating is necessary for the scale modernization which occurs in the country, marks the president of republic Nursultan Nazarbayev. - … The society needs the multi-party parliament”. According to the president, the democratic vector of the politics development should be consistently realized. On a plan of the authorities, just this step will allow to improve the international image of Kazakhstan.

According to the last changes brought in the constitution, not less than two political parties should be presented in the parliament lower chamber. For this purpose the reform of political system has been spent in republic, in particular, the election of deputies under the party lists is entered. All elective places were occupied with the representatives of the party “Nur Otan” headed by Nursultan Nazarbayev before the majilis dissolution.

Other parties participating in last parliamentary elections of 2007 year couldn't break the seven-percentage barrier necessary for passage to parliament. At least two parties will receive places taking into account the recently accepted amendments to parliament of new convocation, even if the second won't type the necessary percent. According to the Kazakhstan authorities such amendments to the current legislation will allow to overcome the representation of the international experts about the undemocratic nature of the elections in Kazakhstan.

There are no doubts that the representatives of party in power “Nur Otan” will occupy the majority of places in new majilis. And the forecasts of experts and political scientists on other parties are the following: “Nur Otan” (“Fatherland Light”) deputy mandates will be divided with two more parties – “Ak Zhol” (“Light Way”) from 15-18 % and the National Social-Democratic Party “Azat” (“Freedom”) from 7-8 %. The others, probably, can't break a seven-percentage barrier …

Also the applicants distinctly understand it and therefore some of them try to use all possibilities that “to shake a boat” under the known scenarios of “color revolutions” with an overall aim - to postpone the elections for later term. The demonstrative statements for an exit from pre-election race, the appeal to president Nazarbayev about the necessity of his refusal of leadership to parties and appeals to a setting out of elections in the spirit of “Who will go on elections, that is the villain! And who won't go – well done” are put forward. The opinions on inevitability of regime change in the country and expediency of an exit “outdoors” sound also.

Along with it, one of the most “well-publicized” and favourable themes for the oppositionists now is the theme of recent disorders in the city of Zhanaozen of Mangistausk Oblast. Here a big field for imaginations and actions with the unique purpose: to discredit the basic competitor – party in power.

So, the radicals together with the western “stars” and centers of “true democracy”, simultaneously being their “curators” and financial donors, trumpet about the roughest infringement of the rights and freedom of citizens of the republic, expressed in “execution of striking peace demonstration by the authorities” in Zhanaozen.

That is, from their words as it turned out, the peaceful people have gathered in Zhanaozen and the police began to shoot on them for some reason … From their point of view, nothing serious has occurred in Zhanaozen; a fur-tree, administration buildings, the office of oil-producing enterprise “Ozenmunaygas”, hotels, shops, the cars caught fire by themselves obviously and thirty policemen made the wounds themselves of various weight. The peaceful people have gathered there, having taken the pistols which have casually got under their hands, pomegranates, sawn-off shotguns, axes, knifes, the traumatic weapon. And to carry the incendiary bottles on peace demonstrations is the ancient local tradition …

At the same time, if to speak objectively, the key factors of domination of party in power “Nur Otan” for today are its indisputable popularity in the people plus dissociation and weakness of the opposition.

“The management of Kazakhstan wishes to establish two-party system, the conversation is constantly about it, but in this case there is an absolute must of search of party which would become loyal opposition”, the author of the book “Formation of party system of Kazakhstan” Rico Isaaks has noticed in one of interview.

According to the Supreme commissioner of OSCE of affairs of national minorities Knut Vollebaek, “the elections aren't any reason of possible future crisis and that the electivity and the election in the Republic of Kazakhstan can be held is a sign of health”. Such estimation of occurring changes in political system of Kazakhstan from OSCE testifies the trust of the international experts to reforms spent in republic.

It is obvious that, whatever was the outcome of forthcoming early election in the parliament of the lower chamber, Kazakhstan will receive “world community approval”. Having selected the special, “Kazakhstan” way of development, the country slowly, but confidently moves ahead on a way to democracy.

It is impossible to say that the one-party parliament has completely settled the trust of the population. However the essential changes in political system will allow to lower discontent of segments of the society deprived of the political representation today.