Facebook as the weapon: the improbable thing is always quite possible …

We continue to acquaint you with the reflections of a known analyst and historian Sergey Pereslegin. Today the matter will be a theme which interests many people in many countries of the world, namely about the reasons of rough events in the Arabian world. All the more the analysts promise their repetition not only in Africa but in the Near East …

- The question, whether the events in Egypt are connected with "Facebook", is not such trivial as it can seems at first sight. There were many events in Africa which all of us try to apprehend as one event but …

But the events in Tunis aren’t connected by no means neither with Facebook, nor with “abominable conspiracy” of Europe and America against unfortunate Africa and Islam. It was still known in a year of 2005—2006 that there would be a revolution and local residents openly spoke about it. In Tunis when the president becomes old and sick and can't fulfill the duties that becomes clear on his behavior – there is a revolution. As a rule, it is without blood. And the young and healthy president continuing the same policy comes to the power. It is simply a change of the power.

The events in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen have absolutely another character. It is the most serious dynastic conflict. The matter is that the Saudi dynasty has got a lot of power. From the point of view of freedom-loving Arabs, this is simply inadmissible in general (the Arabs are very freedom-loving people, despite everything that the western press writes). And there is quite strong friction. Roughly speaking, they try to bring the Saudi down a peg or two and they want to make their country a normal classical monarchy. I don't know who will win but this is the internal conflict which nobody inspired.

As to Egypt, so it has passed a huge way for 40 years – from the poorest country to the country with a high standard of living (certainly to the African standards) and with very good education of the youth. I can tell that having visited Egypt not once or twice, I didn’t see neither direct nor indirect slightest discontent with Mubarak. Neither in army, nor among dealers, anywhere …

Three versions of events are possible: choose any; all three are interesting.

The first version is classical Marxist. Marx and Engels learn us that the revolutionary movement and in particular the change of a feudal system to a normal capitalism occur not in an economic crisis as the majority of people thinks for some reason but just after quite intensive economic growth. In this situation the relations of production remain former and the productive forces change very strongly for forty years of economic growth. In the conditions of Egypt this contradiction is shown, as the youth contradiction, as struggle of youth against the stiffened state administrative structure in which the bureaucracy became a brake of economy development. That is, not concrete Mubarak but all control system has annoyed everybody to such degree …

So, the first version is especially Marxist: the national indignation will lead to normal bourgeois revolution and construction of the democratic state. Such things happen in the world …

The second version is cryptohistorical: it is not simply so! Pay attention that El Baradei became a banner of events in Egypt. This is a head of IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency) and IAEA is especially American organization, created not to admit creation of nuclear power and especially nuclear weapon in all those countries at which they still aren't present till now. In this respect a post of the chairman is always American! And if El Baradei was the head of IAEA, so it could be done only exclusively by the USA. And his role in the events is appreciable!

Here again there is such obvious thing that the events in Egypt are created by the Americans. A question – what is for? There are two standard answers. This is a part of game of dollar with euro that is quite clear. I start with simple things. For example, these events have few times partitioned Suez Canal off. It is almost non-significant for the Americans but it is already real deterioration of a situation in the market of energy carriers for Europe, for Europe that is extremely intense.

But another is more interesting, namely Camp David agreements which describe some modus vivendi of Israel and Egypt and by that grant to Israel the right to life in the Arabian world and which are completely based on a figure of Mubarak. Hosni Mubarak leaves and it means that earlier or later, but Camp David agreements will be reviewed. And it is very curious and very unpleasant for Israel.

And look further: the USA isn’t too necessary in the Near East after Camp David. And now America again has a possibility to act in a balance zone: Egypt – Israel. Perhaps, to support Israel against Egypt and may be to give Israel and support Egypt at any situation, having received a huge influence in the Arabian world. If you consider that America will cry across Israel, so you are mistaken. There is a second version: the events in Egypt are inspired the USA and this is a part of the American plan of game firstly against Israel and secondly against Europe.

There is a third version. It is the most improbable from my point of view. But the most probable! As it is ridiculous, but it can be the test of Facebook as a weapon. And the test made not from reasons of any difficult policy or custom-made. And it is simple at level: let's look what is possible to make with this piece? Oh, how beautifully it turned out …

If you think that there are no such things in the modern world, you are mistaken. People who has Facebook, has possibility to hand over the information to millions of people in the world simultaneously! It is out of control of any government. So, it can be such version.

By the way, I am inclined to consider that all three versions are true to certain degree.

P.S. According to foreign mass-media data today most of all users of Facebook are in the USA – 155 million persons. Further follow: Indonesia – 36 million, Great Britain - 30, India – 24, Philippines – 22, Brazil – 16.
In Russia the number of users of Facebook is 4,5 million persons and in China, for example, 400 thousand persons …