Grand chessboard: secret springs of the Ukrainian crisis

Actually the West now accuses Putin that he didn’t repeat Stalin’s mistake on June 22, 1941. And the Russian liberals, pouring him the dirt that he «missed the beginning of war and didn’t listen to arguments of investigation», now «don't see» that the aggression against Russia prepared in Ukraine. Putin was more perspicacious than Stalin and prevented it. Therefore now the West is in shock, rage and powerless rage. The Canadian journalist Argyl Turner is told about it by Brzezin Zbigniewski, the President of «Center of political forecasting and analysis».

- So, we will begin with obvious and will answer 3 questions:

1. Whether incidentally the West so insisted on signing of the agreement on association with EU by Ukraine which is extremely unprofitable for it, until the end of 2013?

2. Is it casual after refusal of the president Yanukovych to sign it the Euromaidan began which the West in every possible way supported right there and provided its victory?

3. Whether incidentally Putin addressed to the Federation Council to allow the use of armies in Ukraine, the Crimea and Sevastopol declared accession to Russia, and in the Southeast of Ukraine the national excitements began?

Answer to the first question. It is well known that government bodies in the course of preparation and decision-making are guided not only and not so much by messages of mass media, as by many reports of special services. So what could they report Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2013 concerning the future association of Ukraine with EU? Certainly, that association with EU in the form in which it prepared, conducts Ukraine to full financial and economic breakdown. About what the Russian president many times spoke to the Ukrainian management and, as a result, convinced him.

Both the USA, and EU the transition of Ukraine under their influence was extremely necessary as the western economy is in a serious condition, and unemployment in many countries reached already inconceivable limits. Merger of the Ukrainian market provided though temporary, but after all the growth of the western economy.

The military-political calculations increased, that is, realization of possibility of creation in Ukraine a military enclave which can be used soon if not for direct aggression against Russia, but for creation of the center of intensity near its borders.

Is it possible to doubt that the Russian investigation didn’t report Vladimir Putin? Certainly, no.

We will pass to the answer to the second question. It is undoubted that true inspirers and organizers of the Euromaidan, including financial, were outside Ukraine. The Euromaidan was accompanied from neo-Nazi groups not only by furious anti-Russian rhetoric, but also by the threats of physical destruction of Russian and Russian-speaking. Their leaders not once openly declared the plans to develop terrorist war in the territory of Ukraine.

It is impossible to believe that these appeals weren’t accompanied by real actions especially as the whole world knows that training of the West Ukrainian fighters was carried out in territories of Poland and the Baltic States since 2006.

As showed the events of the last days, it is possible to intercept telephone negotiations of the Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland or Catherine Ashton, the E. U. High Representative for foreign affairs, that is, it is possible to claim with a big share of confidence that process of preparation and probable application of the Ukrainian fighters became known to the Russian investigation.

Is it possible to doubt that the Russian investigation didn’t report Vladimir Putin? Certainly, no.

Thus, the president of Russia was put before a choice by the West: to remain further in position of the detached onlooker, endangering that not only the country, but also tens of millions Russians in Ukraine or to take timely adequate measures.

And, at last, the answer to the third question. It is thought that the truth moment for Putin came after the Ukrainian president Yanukovych couldn’t cope with aggressive actions of so-called «protesters» on Euromaidan who ruthlessly attacked unarmed militiamen, throwing them «Molotov's cocktails».

Concern of the Kremlin increased even more when Euromaidan began to seize public institutions with full connivance of the Ukrainian power. And, at last, concern developed into full understanding of real threat after aggressive nationalists took tens of thousands units of the weapon and one hundred thousand units of ammunition in the Western Ukraine.

Is it possible to doubt that the Russian investigation didn’t report in details of it to Vladimir Putin? Certainly, no.

And after that Euromaidan won, the agreement of February 21 wasn’t observed by all who signed it, and the people belonging to those aggressive groups who declared the misanthropic intentions concerning the Russians began to be appointed to the state posts in Ukraine. Thus all protests of Russia were ignored.

At the same time numerous robberies and murders of those who dared to show disagreement with Euromaidan victory proceeded. The mass violence threatened to extend quickly on the Southeast of Ukraine and to the Crimea. Threats started arriving not only to the Ukrainian citizens, but also the heads of the Russian regions, simple inhabitants of Russia.

The nationalists who have come to the power showed special hatred concerning inhabitants of the Crimea. And they weren’t limited to simple words, and already started getting into the Crimean cities. There was a real possibility of capture of arsenals and military units in the Crimea in the same way as it occurred in the Western Ukraine.

And at the same time the Ukrainian management which has come to the power, absolutely illegitimate from the point of view of international law completely fulfilled requirements of the radicals, planning to make genocide of the Russians in the territory of Ukraine.

So what Vladimir Putin had to make? He made that any responsible head of the state would make in conditions when the world community on behalf of which only the western countries acted, completely ignores the opinion of Russia concerning which the obvious threat of its own safety is available.

Instant and timely effect of Russia were completely unexpected for the West and not only in the military-political relation, but also economic.

Militarily the investigations of the NATO countries had the full grief that at hearings in the Congress of the USA senator John McCain brightly spoke: «There was a massive failure in the analysis of motives of Putin!"

The countries of the West cruelly miscalculated in the economy: after blocking of the Ukrainian military facilities in the Crimea on March 1 and 2, 2014, already on March 3 the Russian stock exchange simply failed, frightened of «war» unexpectedly beginning to dawn ahead. The prices of the Russian assets catastrophically fell off.

Sharply the shares of all largest companies of Russia which redeemed for «American money» considerable volume (in certain cases to 30%) of the shares of own monopolies at foreign owners who in a panic started selling them at the reduced cost and by that considerably strengthened the financial independence fell in price. That is, actually Russia withdrew huge assets from pre-crisis western economy.

Thus, the hysterics of the USA and EU is quite explainable. However, those steps which they now take, practically don’t threaten Russia in any way. The declared sanctions are simply ridiculous and, most likely, will simply strike on their initiators.

Putin’s authority sharply amplified in Russia. Russians felt external threat and that is quite explainable as more than once happened in their history, will sharply rally. As they speak in England, «Curses like chickens come home to roost».

It shouldn’t be claimed that Putin already coped with such problem as observance of human rights in all Southeast of Ukraine. But with support of all population of Russia this task is quite feasible.