Kazakhstan isn't threatened by “Ukrainian scenario”!

Political scientists, historians and sociologists took part in the work of an interregional expert platform «Oligarchs as threat of national security on the former Soviet Union». Action took place in the walls of the Siberian Institute of Management — branch of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Service at the President of the Russian Federation. Its organizers were the faculty of policy and the international relations of the Siberian Institute of Management and Novosibirsk office of the Russian Association of Political Science.

In speeches of experts various subjects connected with threats proceeding from oligarchic clans for the state construction were touched. We bring to your attention the experts assessment of a today’s situation in Kazakhstan.

What does Nazarbayev let know?

Even more often the representatives of business join in fight for the political power and defend corporate interests. In this sense similar manifestation in policy becomes complicated in modern political process of Kazakhstan also that so-called administrators of the development, urged to form the favourable institutional environment for realization of state programs, in fact, opposed corporate and administrative and bureaucratic interests to public priorities. According to the Forbes edition the share of the state business and influence of businessmen on which depends all national economy grows in Kazakhstan. In a rating of a consequence the former executive officer of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Bulat Utemuratov is in the lead.

A number of large businessmen entering administrative and related circles are also presented in the list most influential people of the country. For example, Timur Kulibayev, the chairman of presidium of National chamber of businessmen of the Republic of Kazakhstan, chairman of the Kazakhstan association of the organizations of the oil and gas and power Kazenergy complex, board member of Russian «Gazprom», co-owner of JSC ALMEKS Holding Company. The largest company of Kazakhstan is JSC Samruk-Kazyna. Represents holding on management of the state assets and included 583 subsidiaries by data for 2012. Among deputies of Majilis of Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan concerning business, it is possible to allocate the daughter of N. Nazarbayev Dariga Nazarbayeva and Darya Klebanova who own media business. Dariga Nazarbayeva and Rakhat Aliyev also are included into group of influence on a presidential environment and business community according to the experts.

One of high-profile cases of the last years in fight of elite groups can be called the process in the matter of murder of the oppositionist Altynbek Sarsenbayev. The next turn in business came after refusal of the ex-head of the office of the senate of parliament Yerzhan Utembayev of former indications and the announcement customers of punishment by the ex-ambassador of Kazakhstan in Austria Rakhat Aliyev and the former head of committee of national security of Kazakhstan of Alnur Musayev.

Thus, the experience of the Post-Soviet states allows to say that formation of the administrative market which was built in «clan capitalism» led to support search at the state and to inefficient balance as a result of existence of «institutional traps». At the same time, the state and administrators of development, in fact, appear «hostages» of own administrative and bureaucratic class defending the interests of financial and industrial groups. Experts see the prospects of positive institutional changes in democratization and political modernization of Kazakhstan.

It should be noted that the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev presented «Strategy-2050», having designated thereby the national idea of the all-Kazakhstan house «Мәңгілік ел». It means that Nazarbayev not only thinks by time and policy space, but let to all know that the state fights for the right to be the main institute and the administrator of development, forming the new institutional environment which will allow to be among the developed countries.

Alexander Barsukov, the Candidate of Political Sciences, senior teacher, faculty of political sciences and sociology, chair of political sciences of the Kemerovo State University.

Political ambitions of oligarchs are unreasonable!

Not political participation of oligarchs as that, but their lobbist activity, and system political opposition of the power is considered as dangerous. If it is accompanied by creation and the maintenance of opposition parties or attempts of political consolidation on an anti-governmental basis. In Russia B. Berezovsky was, probably, the last such figure, thus, probably, slightly demonized.

In Kazakhstan the corresponding «proscription list» was longer than the power. Rakhat Aliyev, N. Nazarbayev’s former son-in-law who has been in absentia sentenced in 2007 by 20 years of prison, including, for revolution attempt is in it. Bolat Abilov, one of the leaders of the oppositional movement «For Fair Kazakhstan», Akezhan Kazhegeldin, chairman of Republican people’s party of Kazakhstan. Mukhtar Ablyazov, who provided the activity of oppositional People’s Party «Democratic choice of Kazakhstan» for 90% until recently. And this list is incomplete …

In this regard the results of discussion of a role and estimates of certain oligarchs from Kazakhstan at debatable seminars of young Novosibirsk political scientists are curious who formulated today the questions on which tried to give answers. We will bring them for descriptive reasons without notes.

Question 1. In your opinion, why Russia wants to receive Mukhtar Ablyazov? Is a political component in this desire or it is a question only of financial things after all?

- Answer: The aspiration of the Kremlin to receive Ablyazov is a little exaggerated. And those words that sound now in Kazakhstan from lips of so-called «experts» that Moscow will use him as the lever of pressure upon Republic of Kazakhstan is frivolous to put it mildly. As Ablyazov’s figure as politician looks doubtfully in all respects, and the Kremlin hardly would began to play on this field.

Question 2. Will Russia give out Ablyazov to the authorities of Kazakhstan if there is such situation?

- Answer: Certainly, it will give out resting on great friendship and strategic partnership. But only the doubt is in other. Will French give out him to Kiev or Moscow? There is still the Strasbourg court, and London can request him too. There is still a lot of human rights activists, who will rise in defence of the pseudo-fighter for freedom and democracy on open spaces of the CIS …

To be fair, we will notice that the structure of the economic and criminal offenses imputed to called and other persons, impresses. There a question, what their political activity is motivated — the valid ambitions, or the admission on a way to the status of the political refugee. But the fact is that in Kazakhstan the oligarch who showing strategic political loyalty of the power and has refused absolute domination in any segment of business, is a figure quite accepted for the power.

Moreover, this layer is a natural counterbalance to other components of a socio-political design for the power on which this power leans — to powerful bureaucratic clans, regional elite and power structures. As a matter of fact, the Buonaparte power holds today some median position on the axis the poles of which are an oligarchic mode on the one hand, and a mode of absolute bureaucracy on the other. Both that and other alternative is destructive for both countries to existing Buonapartism. Democratic alternative if it is possible, so or in its Ukrainian option including institutes Walk — fields, or in the option of Kyrgyzstan showing a train of shocks, economic degradation and terrible corruption.

Since the time of Aristotle it is known that the stable democracy leans on numerous, influential and responsible middle class that isn’t present in Kazakhstan. Disaggregation of oligarchic groups can be considered, in principle, as the first and very modest steps in this direction.

Valery Demidov, Doctor of History, the head of the department of humanitarian bases of public service of the Siberian Institute of Management, Alexander Lifanov, Candidate of History.

The authorities of Kazakhstan are capable to neutralize the threat

The president of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev realizes the complex strategy of industrial modernization and seeks to create modern effective political institutes, to take away the country from «raw» model of development, to create general and clear «rules of the game» and rules of interaction with the power for large business. In this situation the attempt of certain oligarchs (as outside the countries, and in the hidden form — inside) are counterproductive, they aren’t interested in modernization strategy which create strong national middle class and gradually destroy their exclusive positions.

Their conversations on democracy are a propaganda screen for coming to power and receiving access to repartition of national wealth, for creation of personal business empires. All conversations on democracy, freedom of speech and pluralism will be finished when any of oligarchic clans will seize upon the power. The Kazakhstan power and civil society has necessary resources for counteraction to clan «games» and oligarchic opportunism. M. Ablyazov, A. Khrapunov, R. Aliyev biographies are the graphic evidence to that.

Certainly, among the oligarchs who have emigrated from Kazakhstan there are the people, wishing to get monasteries of the Russian oligarchs of the 1990th years or to repeat achievements of present Ukrainian «colleagues» on protection of the interests by means of the inspired scandals and crises. Here is a question — in degree of force of the Kazakhstan power, in degree of a consolidation of the Kazakhstan elite and society which would allow to counteract similar scenarios. In my opinion, the power and society of Kazakhstan possess all necessary resources for neutralization of similar threat, and the country isn’t threatened by «Ukrainian scenario».

Sergey Biryukov, Doctor of Political Sciences, professor of the Kemerovo State University.