Kharkov united the experts

The I International forum “The Post-Soviet world 2020 — risks, calls, scenarios” passed, carried out by “League of Experts of Post-Soviet Space” with participation of representatives of 13 countries of the near and far abroad. The forum became the first large action of League which was founded in March of this year in the Crimea. Four tens of political scientists, statesmen, sociologists, economic experts, publicists took part in it. Problem of action is the analysis and the forecast of a situation for territories of the former Soviet Union for the next five-seven years.

Within two days the experts discussed the following problems: “Post-Soviet demography: calls and prospects”, “Power policy: the instrument of integration or separation”, “Continuity of the political power on the former Soviet Union”, “Cultural and language space: condition and expectations”.

And though the participants of the first forum held only “ranging” meeting, primary “review of forces” and though it is clear to all that because of a difference in views the united resultant position can't be developed, however the organizers consider the action successful as the substantial discussions were carried out which have come to the end by following results of meetings and discussions with the joint statement in which it is told: “We, the group of leading experts of the former Soviet Union, having gathered on May 14-15 in Kharkov on the first constituent meeting of League of experts of the former Soviet Union, state the existence of a number of common problems in the states represented by us.

We realize that these problems have system character and demand the operational decision. We made the report in which the options of overcoming of the crisis phenomena developed during discussion are offered the governments of our states.

Greeting to a forum from the ex-president of Ukraine L.Kuchma who was declared among the participants, but couldn't arrive, sounded the editor-in-chief of “The Kiev newspaper” V. Dolganov. In the short address it was noted: “We have many general subjects demanding impartial discussions”.

The Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine D. Tabachnik, the Plenipotentiary ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine M. Zurabov, the governor M. Dobkin, the Kharkov mayor G. Kernes took part in opening ceremony of a forum.

“Kharkov gave out to the former Soviet Union, to present independent Ukraine and Europe a lot of interesting facts and events which forever remained in memory and history and sometimes served as a starting point for many important and good issues — M. Dobkin fairly emphasized. Having opening a forum and noting an originality and even an immemorial advantageous position of geopolitical position of Kharkov, he reminded of events of the latest times — in particular, that passed a fatal Hierarchal cathedral of 1992 in Kharkov, without having allowed to disappear of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from a bosom of the Russian Church and the Blessed Vladimir (Sabodan) was elected as the metropolitan of Kiev and all Ukraine in it.

The governor reminded also that the presidents of Ukraine and Russia signed the Kharkov agreements on the Black Sea fleet in the building of the Kharkov regional administration which will define a situation “still at least thirty years”.

“I carry a today's event to those, M. Dobkin added, which will define a fashion or will have impact in the short term. … If the opinions and practices of political experts of the former Soviet Union, the European and other states would be useful to the leaders of the countries, would be considered at development of certain bases of the international and domestic policy, so think that Kharkov will give one more reason to be proud of. Because the first forum which is held at us, at the correct approach can be very useful not only for our society, but also for those states which else look for itself on the map of the modern world”.

The Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine D. Tabachnik noted that very long the former Soviet Union endured the complex of lameness imposed from the outside. The first it was realized by Russia and tries to change the current situation basically. Community of problems of our countries, in opinion of D. Tabachnik, consists in not fully formation of political elite, excessive social stratification, destruction of social elevators.

“We speak much about integration in the former Soviet Union. Economic, political and cultural integration of the one sixth part of the globe which 20 years ago was the united state is the most important vector of the development. Problem of a forum is to try to find those ways and instruments of development which are our own, to define that can be used from the best elements of world experience and it is designed by common efforts of the people which have the richest history, own layer in world culture and big scientific achievements”, emphasized D. Tabachnik.

According to the minister, Ukraine shouldn't have copied blindly, for example, Bologna Process. Let's note: it is really a negative example of our “European integration”. Words of the minister are confirmed also by practice: the education level fell in higher education institutions of Ukraine. The minister also noted that vicious there was also a practice of blind loan and transferring of experience of the countries of Europe in state, judicial and other fields of activity of Ukraine (it is fair for other Post-Soviet states): at the beginning of independence often the Ukrainian experts simply transferred the foreign legislation, practically without adapting it for local realities of life. So it wasn't necessary to arrive, considers the Minister of Education of Ukraine. “It is necessary to try to find those ways of the development, those tools, those trends which are our own”, concluded D. Tabachnik.

“Sad trend” of the foreign policy of Ukraine the minister called its situation and introversion and therefore inability to solve strategic problems.

Speaking about the problems of integration, D. Tabachnik added that the annual commodity turnover of Ukraine with the former Soviet Union makes 65 billion dollars or 40% of all foreign trade turnover of the country, and about 28%, nearly 40 billion dollars, with the European Union countries. All this should be meant.

As then it became clear, this thought is close also to many experts of a forum to whom it is obvious that “our own trends” meet in creation of new association of the countries formed as a result of a partition of the big country.
The surprising inseparable community of these countries remaining even later nearly a quarter of the century after disintegration of the USSR, the majority of experts noted, despite a difference of positions. And at the heart of this community there is just the Russian cultural and language code. Namely the Russian language continues to connect, forever, apparently, the disconnected.

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The ambassador of Russia M. Zurabov, growing to correspond to the general context of a forum and to formulate “calls”, at the beginning of performance he for some reason emphasized at once that is considered at citizens of Russia as “the enemy of the people”. But then from lips of the convinced monetarist the gathered people unexpectedly heard that at development of practical recommendations, first of all, the experts have to consider the interests of the people. Having told to experts about how he got at once two “German cars” for himself and for parents, how he did “upgrade” to the “the six-hundredth Mercedes”, mister ambassador declared also: “For me huge interest is represented by valuable limiters. I consider as values the state regulation and its borders, social justice and scales of its realization, confessional and cultural distinctions”. “The need for an ascesis gained the global character, the ascet Zurabov burned down hearts of experts, therefore the service, instead of enrichment today is necessary!” Having noted also the need of increase in life expectancy as the main civilization call and also a health care individualization as new stage of development of world medicine, Mr. Zurabov told that doesn't eat meat for 20 years and uses not patented combined bacteriophage and therefore never is ill. In summary the ambassador called the European Union as “German project” and stated confidence that EU will exist until Germany “won’t take” all Europe. Then the speaker unexpectedly for all remembered Sergey Radonezhsky...

Unfortunately, the chaotic and eclectic speech of the ambassador remained not understandable to the majority of experts.

The member of parliament of Armenia, the chairman of editorial council of Iravunk media holding A.Barbukhanyan noted that today's Armenia is the strategic partner of Russia and as Armenia is included into the union with Russia, it can't enter into other blocks and shouldn't. The expert added also that external western influence is carried out in the Post-Soviet countries according to one model: the growing up of the internal fifth columns operating in any conditions and directed only on a swing of stability. A.Barbukhanyan stated the reasonable and overriped wish that the system explanatory work showing to all the advantages of EurAsEC has to be conducted. Let's pay attention also to the statement of the Armenian expert that Russia is doomed to be one of geopolitical poles of the world. And in connection with strengthening of positions of Russia tension increase recently is designated, already there are almost direct threats from EU to our countries and appeals to refuse the Customs Union and EurAsEC.

A.Babukhanyan shared the supervision — the Post-Soviet countries which are consecutive in the foreign policy, are stable, unlike the fluctuating Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova.

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In the meeting concerning the issues of energy drinks, the general director of the Fund of national energy security K.Simonov (Russia) pragmatically rejected “abstract values, like the general last Slavic brotherhood” and declared that the power sphere can potentially become a good economic basis for integration of the countries on the former Soviet Union, but, unfortunately, the experience of the last years says that it is a factor of disintegration”. The speaker paid attention to the conflict as between the countries suppliers of energy resources Russia and Azerbaijan and between the countries suppliers and consumers Russia and Ukraine. And if in the first case the conflict has economic roots — Russia and Azerbaijan compete for an exit to the same sales markets of energy resources, in the second case, according to the expert, the economic reasons for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia aren't present, and the conflict can be resolved, having eliminated the policy from a gas subject.

The political scientist from “orange pack” told Baloga and Yushchenko V. Karasev told about illusory shale gas. “All present gas infrastructure of Ukraine was constructed under the interests of the USSR and it ties Ukraine to Russia, considers Karasev. Thus, the Soviet Union still lives in gas and power measurement. And the investigation, development and production of shale gas gives the chance to Ukraine to be entered in the new power world map where shale gas will be the main source. It will allow not only to lower the power expenses for the industrial enterprises, but also to be engaged in gas export”. The thinker doesn't trouble himself with such questions: and what price including ecological, with what problems for the population suffocating production of shale gas in Ukraine will turn back, in particular, on once native for Karasev Kharkiv region where it is already rich “anti-shale” pickets pass.

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On the expert “panel” devoted to a demographic situation in the countries of the former USSR, the participants of discussion were terrified by the statistics given by the Kiev sociologist E.Kopatko, the founder of the group of companies Research & Branding Group. Having noted that Europe got to a demographic hole, he showed some evident charts, not very comforting first of all for Ukraine. For example, the list of 30 disappearing megalopolises of Europe heads Dnepropetrovsk on rates of reduction of the population, on the third place there is Donetsk, then Zaporozhye, Nizhny Novgorod (Russia), Kharkov is on the 10th place, St. Petersburg – on the 11th place. In this thirty only two (!) cities are not from Ukraine and Russia: it is Budapest (the second place in the list) and Rome (at the end of the third ten). The population of Donetsk region since 1989 decreased from 5332 thousand people to 4387 thousand per 1 million!

Not less dreadfully looks other graph for Ukraine. For the same period (1989 — 2013) Ukraine lost 6, 3 million citizens (for today there were 45, 5 million), Russia - 3, 9 million whereas Belarus managed to grow on 0, 4 million, and, say, Uzbekistan — on 10, 1 million (!) .

It is clear that with such demographic tendency of two biggest in Europe, Russia and especially Ukraine, it would be extremely hard in the future to the states. If the living and work conditions in Ukraine don't change, so after 2030 year the decrease in number of its population to 32 million is predicted.

The people of Ukraine, unlike the same Russia, strongly gravitate to employment abroad. Today 3 million citizens of Ukraine working outside the country aren't going to come back! The speaker called three reasons of the difficult demographic situation which has developed in Ukraine: strong social inequality (from themselves we will add a formula of “oligarchic genocide of the population”), catastrophic falling of an education level, domination of centrifugal tendencies. The conclusion about a tendency to disintegration of some Post-Soviet border regions, in due time disappeared from big whole, is done also by the Kiev political scientist R. Ishchenko about the report of whom we will tell below.

According to co-reporter S. Markov, such actions of the state as possibility of affordable housing (state, free for families with three children), change of a valuable paradigm by refusal of ideology of consumer society, creation of a cult of a family and family values will help to rescue a demographic situation. “People have to understand that a family is good and that to have close people is fine. It is necessary to propagandize a healthy lifestyle, to create such behavioural model. To carry out the operated migration. To fight against a drug mafia, to enter the state monopoly for production and vodka sale under control of Ministry of Health, to reduce availability of vodka. Vodka is the murderer of the Russian people”, concluded S. Markov.

The director of information and analysis centre of studying of political processes in the former Soviet Union space of the Moscow State University of Lomonosov A.Vlasov, summing up this discussion, told: “The situation with population reproduction especially in Russia and in Ukraine isn't simply difficult, but catastrophic. Any deeper changes are necessary concerning the family status, the intra family relations, and, finally, distinct and accurate valuable reference points on which society has to be under construction. All experts agreed with him as it is one of the main problems actually of all countries of the former Soviet Union”. He raised a question of meanings, of the spiritual beginning in this problem.

Writer A.Kutnik (Ukraine-Germany) introduced the idea that the matter, maybe, is in presence or absence of hopes: if the society has it, then the demographic situation improves. Really, will the increase in a standard of living, consumption, the income per capita rescue the birth rate falling? Doesn’t the birth rate in the rich countries of “gold billion” fall? And didn’t the population grow in severe post-war conditions in the USSR?

S. Mikheyev, the general director of the Centre of a political environment of Russia, emphasized that in a demographic problem, in his opinion, the predominating position is taken not social, but by religious aspect. And he also paid attention that the pension reform doesn't work in any Post-Soviet state.

As S. Mikheyev added, orientation to the European project is a way to death as Europe dies. The way of Europe’s life and today's European outlook lead to reduction of indigenous people. Society in Europe degrades today as egoism, refusal of a child-bearing, family disintegration dominate in it.

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The second day of forum work began with discussion about continuity of the power in the Post-Soviet states. The known politician, the political scientist, the publicist, not on the permanent staff adviser of the president of Ukraine D. Vydrin stated the judgment that the power in the Post-Soviet countries will belong soon to groups of elite which were created after disorder of the USSR and for today are very closed social layers. “There is a power change, but the elite doesn't change in principle — the political scientist noted, having emphasized that on the former Soviet Union the elites developed quickly, having so quickly created the certain nomenclature closed environment to which it is very difficult to get from outside. Poses change, but the acting characters are the same”.

The director of the Ukrainian Agency of situations modelling V.Bala pointed to policy leaving in “grey area”. There is a cleaning of political stars and then there is similar cleaning in economy. It is necessary to create the mechanism and conditions of change of the power, the expert considers.

The editor-in-chief of the New Baku post newspaper T.Abbasov, for his part, emphasized that chose exactly G. Aliyev's strong power and supported the Azerbaijani people tired of bloodshed and chaos. The government of “popular front” did many troubles and today the people is ready to vote for the strong power for the sake of stability. Fresh examples of events in Syria, Tunisia and others simply terrify, emphasized T.Abbasov.

When there was a speech about the republics of Central Asia, in particular, A.Vlasov noticed that the decision on continuity of the power in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (because of an age factor) will be accepted in the foreseeable future during unofficial arrangements which will be subsequently legalize and issued by democratic procedures. Also the withdrawal of troops of an anti-terrorist coalition from Afghanistan will influence a situation, undoubtedly, for example, and therefore the power transition in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will need external secure, taking of distinct opinions of “the largest players on the map of Central Asia, Russia, China, the USA”.


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The most heated debate inflamed in connection with the report “Cultural and language space: condition and expectations” of president “Centre of the system analysis and forecasting” R. Ishchenko (Kiev). This performance should be read out as key in two-day discussion — first of all, from the point of view of a distinct integration message. Our post-imperial space isn't in a statics, marked out R. Ishchenko and today it is not simply the choice of language; choosing the language, we make a choice in either integration or disintegration. But it is necessary to understand that in case of disintegration the centrifugal tendencies will prevail and further crushing of parts on smaller will inevitably begin.

Cultural and historical and language unity by the beginning of the 2000th remained almost the only cramp of the former Soviet Union and it gave the ideological justification for start of process of political and economic reintegration.

R. Ishchenko is convinced that only Russia can provide sufficient political, diplomatic and military support to Post-Soviet reintegration. Cumulative military capacity of all other Post-Soviet states concedes the Russian in times, if not in orders.

Writer S. Minakov compared the Russian language to the rocket putting the culture of the people of the USSR to world orbit, gave some examples of all-Union and world famous writers from federal republics, first of all the Russian-speaking Ch.Aytmatov and O. Suleymenov. And if now the cultural, literary ties between Post-Soviet state new growths broke up, so the Russian language will help to restore them, considers the Kharkov expert.

The journalist O. Zinkovsky noted stability of the Russian language which has kept the role in the sphere of the international communications.

The main thing, the fastening language carrier, including in the business sphere, the Post-Soviet community chose the Russian, instead of English or other language, emphasized the expert from Germany.

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Reasons of the director of Institute of the Caucasus, the member of council of the League of Experts of Post-Soviet Space A. Eskandaryan are indicative: “After more than two tens years after disintegration of the USSR the centrifugal tendencies in the region still work. All these years, the former Soviet Union breaks up to separate segments of the new and new directions. It is a question not only of a distance of the states from each other which have arisen in the territory of the former USSR, but of a divergence of their interests, of emergence of the conflicts and contradictions between them. The matter is about of a rupture of information spaces, lack of communications between experts in the most different spheres, of accruing difficulties in exchange of information and expert data and so on. There is a direct need for creation of networks of experts in the former Soviet Union. The countries of this space passed something the general and something a various way of construction of the states, identities, economy and political systems. Similarities and distinctions of the ways passed by the Post-Soviet countries, undoubtedly, give to analysts a rich food for thought. Moreover, all this has far not only academic, but also applied interest. Idea of processes in the country as about unique, strongly disturbs the understanding of the events; respectively the quality of recommendations which experts make to the governments decreases also”.

The Kharkov forum “The Post-Soviet world 2020 — risks, calls, scenarios” is one more intellectual attempt to connect the former Soviet Union together. The hope is given by that fact that in this case the impulse goes from within this space, instead of from outside.

It is a question of attempt of network formation of the experts capable constantly to work in a mode of interaction and consultations. The Kharkov forum is celebrated by high level of the invited experts and the brilliant organization of the action. It is supposed that League forums in Kharkov become annual and this initiative will develop by the principle of political Davos for Europe and Asia.

The Russian agency of the international information of RIA Novosti news agency (led by the coordinator of Club of editors-in-chief of CIS countries, Baltic and Georgia Z.Vinogradov) and Rossotrudnichestvo representation in Ukraine acted as organizers of a forum along with the League of Experts of Post-Soviet Space. The meeting of experts took place with sponsor's support of charity foundation of D. Dobkin (the brother of the head of the Kharkov regional public administration M. Dobkin) and five-star hotel golf club of the Superior Golf and SPA Resort belonging to the Kharkov businessman Yu.Sapronov.