Konstantin Parshin: “The outcome of elections was predetermined in Tajikistan”

The presidential elections passed in Tajikistan. According to official figures, 86 percent voted from total of voters. The next victory was won by the incumbent president Emomalii Rahmon — the candidate from People’s Democratic Party, the Union of Youth and Federation of Labour Unions. He received 83,6% of votes. Five other candidates received insignificant quantity of voices.

At our request the known journalist in the republic and the coordinator of media projects Konstantin Parshin told about the elections in Tajikistan:

— Were the elections of the president of Tajikistan a big event in political life of the republic?

- Presidential elections are the big event, after all a course of development of the country is defined for seven years. Other question is what was the sense specifically in these elections and as far as they are legitimate?

Many experts call the legitimacy of these elections into question.
Here that the local press wrote about it: «Strong candidates weren’t allowed to elections. The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of OSCE noted the actual lack of election campaigns at Rahmon’s competitors. The state mass media „provide large-scale lighting in a positive key of activity of the president — was spoken in the report of mission of observers of ODIHR for October 22. Notable campaign of other candidates isn’t observed yet“. Nothing has changed in the last weeks to elections».

As for counting of votes, it is better to listen to opinion of observers of OSCE who absolutely clearly expressed the opinion about it. The prime attention of foreign observers was drawn by data on a voter turnout on elections on November 6. To 6 p. m. the power reported that over 80 percent of the registered voters of the republic numbering 4 million people voted on elections.

Observers told that so many people simply couldn’t vote, considering that fact that 1,5 million citizens of Tajikistan are abroad in labour emigration! These people make enormous part of electorate — 30%, and may be even more …

This figure isn’t a secret — there is the corresponding statistics of the international organizations which is in a free access. The Central Election Commission reported that compatriots (Tajiks) could come to polling stations in 27 countries of the world! Probably, it is so, but I don’t think that labour migrants in Russia or Kazakhstan, so are interested in policy in general and elections in particular. It would be better to sound figure — how many voters visited polling stations in 27 countries of the world.

— What is it possible to tell about competitors of the permanent president Emomalii Rahmon?

- Names of competitors of the incumbent president became known literally before elections — there were no campaigns. These are little-known state officials. Candidates were from Party of Economic Reforms, Agrarian party, Socialist party, Democratic party and Communist party. And here two strongest opponents of the incumbent president simply weren’t allowed to elections.

At first the known businessman was taken away from political arena: the prominent businessman Zayd Saidov was arrested, who declared in the spring about intention to create new political party. The charges under several very serious articles were brought to him.
Then one more powerful candidate was «removed» — Oynikhol Bobonazarova, the known human rights activist whom nominated as the uniform representative Party of the Islamic Renaissance and Social democrats. Bobonazarova heads the public association «Prospect +", is engaged in protection of the rights of prisoners, women and labour migrants.

The only serious opposition candidate was refused in registration allegedly because she didn’t manage to collect necessary number of signatures. Bobonazarova openly said in the press that the authorities intimidated her supporters.

— That is, all other candidates were only a background for Emomalii Rahmon’s next victory?

- In Tajikistan practically nobody knows these people. I came on sites, talked to people — voters had no concept about whom there is a speech … The press wrote much about it.

And still such interesting moment: three from these five «competitors» eulogized the leader in the pre-election speeches, repeating, «that there is no alternative to the incumbent president» … It turns out funny— the candidate actually agitates for those whom logically he has to struggle?!

- Did the power react somehow to negative estimates of last elections?

- Lately the authorities don’t react to any statements in general. The non-governmental press in Tajikistan is quite strong; the Tajik mass media are much stronger and free, than Uzbek or Turkmen. Our journalists are impudent in good sense and media organizations are quite solid and competent in the legal plan. But the power chose silence tactics. You can freely write, but the government ignores the thoughts of journalists and experts by and large.

It should be noted also the general political indifference and illiteracy of electorate. Educated people stay in apathy too — they simply were tired of economic and social problems, of the general stagnation. Labour migrants outside Tajikistan are far from policy in general.

— Why the opposition couldn’t expose the single candidate who could compete to the incumbent president? Is it too diverse?

- After all there was such candidate — Oynikhol Bobonazarova. But as I already told, she wasn’t allowed to elections. He had an interesting idea — to become «intermediate president» and gradually to transfer the country to parliamentary model. Thus, she was going to fight against regionalism and corruption.

Sceptics, of course, consider that transition to the parliamentary form of government all the same will change nothing, but I believe that such measure would promote decentralization, and would help the republic to move forward. After all important decisions will be made then by deputies of parliament, instead of one person who appoints the officials to all key posts.

— That is, the option similar on Kyrgyz is offered?

- Of course, there are pros and cons arguments — as far as it everything is acceptable in specific conditions of Tajikistan. But already there is no sense to argue on it — the elected president will rule the country in the next seven years.

— If to look at all Central Asian region where in your opinion the democratic institutes are more developed?

- I think that in Kyrgyzstan and in Kazakhstan. As for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the situation is possible to tell, pathological there and we are somewhere in the middle. It is softer at us, but authoritarianism elements, and, alas, a situation are clearly visible doesn’t change for the better. People don’t see justice and fall into apathy. And nobody will protest as, say, in Turkey or in Tunisia. Nobody wants repetition of that we had in the 90th.

As for influence on a situation of external forces then, as they say, all is obvious: Russia, the USA and Europe influence a situation. If they accept the present president, it will be so.

And democracy has nothing to do with it: it is possible to expose some candidates, but the state is now rather strong that can suppress opposition. Real opposition it isn’t expected. And so-called «Islam», more precisely «Islamic» factor, is a subject of infinite speculation. And everyone speaks about it …

I will repeat: there is no real political opposition in Tajikistan at present. Yes, there is a Party of the Islamic Renaissance and Social Democratic Party — the most serious forces. But last elections showed that they worked very illiterately in many respects.

- You have already told that the situation is influenced also by external forces. Whose influence is most notable?

- Russia had difficulty at signing of the contract on extension of term of finding of military base in the territory of Tajikistan. In my opinion, the Russian diplomatic corps behaves poorly: it is necessary to show more initiative and in all the directions — not only in policy; it is necessary to operate, first of all, on the economic front, to strengthen cultural relations; there is still a place for scientific cooperation.

The USA influences the situation very strongly. But we will note that Russia managed to be achieved ratification of the contract on military base parliament of Tajikistan till elections. Generally, rope pulling goes constantly between Russia and the USA. Europe is always on the party of Americans in geopolitical questions. China, in my opinion, conducts very wise policy. There are no any hints on the military cooperation, any conversations on the safety, any excess promises. Only the credits for infrastructure development — the considerable credits, it is necessary to tell, very competently and beautifully.

It is a lot of speculation round NATO withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2014 and that will follow it. Here the position of the USA and Europe, both a position of China, and a position of Russia matter also. Experts give the most inconsistent forecasts about possible succession of events.