Marek Dombrovski: Euro stands fast, but it will be difficult!

Professor Marek Dombrovski is the chairman of the board of the Centre of social and economic researches in Warsaw. As the expert he participated in research and consulting programs in Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Egypt, Iraq, Yemen, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, Russia, Romania, Macedonia, Serbia, Syria, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and in Ukraine. He worked as the First Deputy Minister of Finance of Poland, was the deputy of Polish Seim, the member of council of monetary policy of National bank of Poland. He is the consultant of the World Bank and Program of the Development of the UN.

The view of the Polish economist of world economy development is far from optimism today. Here is about what he told, being with working visit in Russia:

- I’m one of many analysts, trying to trace that occurs in the economy world. But a situation now is such that it is very heavy to understand what occurs. Without the correct analysis it is impossible to define what occurs as though in the centre of the world economy – in the USA and countries of the Western Europe which are in a condition of the next stage of financial crisis.

Financial crisis began in the USA in 2007 year as the marginal phenomenon. And from the second half of 2008 to the second half of 2009 the world economy saw the falling of global trade for the first time after the Second World War. In 2010 the period of growth began and, it appeared, the crisis is already more or less overcame. But the new stage began– the crisis of the state debt: at first Greece and then other countries of the European zone. And now we are in this stage. There is a question: and what is further? And it is difficult to predict…

Having comparing a situation of the first half of 2012 with the last year, we can see a serious difference. The developed countries had the lifting and now the European countries are in a stagnation stage. In the USA the growth is not at so high level, Japan while is on the development way, but after all it actually was in a condition of stagnation in the last 20 years. It seemed that the financial sector was restored, but today it is obvious that many large European banks need the additional capital. The situation worsens, and the banking system is very vulnerable to such shocks.

If to speak about the developing countries, so in 2001 there were the record rates in Asia, Latin America and Africa. Now they are slowed down everywhere. There was a powerful inflow of the capital and even now the outflow is observed. We can speak about the International Monetary Fund forecast – there is a statistics in this respect. There will be a delay of growth rates – it began in the second half of 2011 and affects Europe first of all. The falling will be sharp in the Central and Eastern Europe. As for BRICS, the delay will be very serious in Brazil and in China and Russia – not so. In China the rates are slowed down more seriously than it was expected. In the CIS the rates slowly decrease too. The situation in Azerbaijan isn't clear up to the end – a lot of things depend on production of oil there and it will decrease by the end of decade according to forecasts.

The debt crisis develops at the developed countries. In the European zone the national debt grew in 22% of gross domestic product for 4 years and reaches 90%. Also the matter is not only about Greece! Except the countries as Greece and Italy which traditionally are the debtors, we can speak about Ireland where there is one of the highest levels of a debt – already more than 100% of gross domestic product. Even in Germany, Austria, Holland the debt grows quickly. And here in some countries of Eastern Europe the debt level is low: in Slovakia, Slovenia … Hungary is in a dangerous zone for many years and its prospects are in doubt. Poland slowly approaches to a risk side. While in Bulgaria is low level, there was even its some reduction. The example of Bulgaria shows that after all it is possible to leave a debt trap if there is a political will.

In the USA a situation is rather disturbing – most likely it already left for a side in 100% of gross domestic product and the political prospects of the solution of this problem aren't very much looked through yet. Let's look what results of elections will appear this fall. And Japan is a big riddle for me. This country has to be the bankrupt in principle, but it has big assets. However, the level of a debt of 160% is very serious problem!

What influences a situation? We see the toughening of monetary policy in the USA, we see that the consequences of the fact of an overheat affect in the markets of developing countries in 2010, at last, the credits become more expensive and less available.

Problems are in Ukraine where 40% of the banking sector is supervised by the European banks. And the CIS has own problems. For example, Russia is influenced by fluctuation in prices of oil and possibility of outflow of the capital. Metallurgy influences Ukraine, oil influences Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, gas - Turkmenistan… Ecological dependence is very considerable, the bankruptcy of pension systems is possible and first of all in the East European countries. Such specific factor as business climate influences also. Corruption is generated by authoritative political regimes and there will be no democratization yet, these issues won't be resolved. And the financial sector is very fragile and unstable here.

It is impossible to avoid the continuation of crisis of debt. But the matter is what scenarios will be? I don't consider the scenario of the European zone disorder as the probable. But if it happened, it would be the additional negative push for all world economy. Especially for all European Union countries and their neighbours; moreover, China and the USA would be affected too!

I don't exclude the scenario of crises wave in emerging markets: Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Romania … In China the state has enough means while to support the large banks. But it isn't excluded, as China will be affected by any wave of financial crisis too.

The national debt of Russia is very low in comparison with other countries, but after all I consider that a situation now is another in comparison with crisis of 2008. Then there was a big surplus and serious resources in reserve funds, now the surplus is scanty and the considerable part of resources was spent during the crisis. Serious falling of oil price can't be excluded therefore it is necessary to refuse the doubtful projects, to enter pension reform and to raise a retirement age. Russia doesn't differ from the modern European countries in this respect: the present pension system is absolutely impractical.

One more moment: there are changes in the USA and Canada as a result of which they refuse the gas import. Moreover, the USA already became its exporter! In this regard, all projects connected with liquefied gas in Qatar, Yemen, in the Middle East change - now this gas goes to Europe, so the gas prices have to fall strongly. Also it is a call for Gazprom and for Russia. Process, of course, doesn't happen in a year, but in the next 10-20 years there will be revolutionary changes in this sector. As for the oil, it is more conservative sector and it will keep the value still long enough.