Moldova doesn't trust the politicians at all

The large-scale political crisis proceeds in Moldova. The political forces of the country can't find a compromise in any way to elect the high-grade president of the country. They can’t or don’t want to change “rules of the game”. The head of the Moldavian branch of Association of orthodox experts, the political scientist, the expert of the information- analytical portal of ava.md Vladimir Bukarsky shared the thoughts on a today's situation in Moldova with us.

- What is the present arrangement of political forces in the highest power echelons of Moldova? What political parties and social movements are popular among the population?

- Today the right-liberal “Alliance for the European integration”, consisting of three parties is in power in Moldova: two right-of-centre (Democratic and Liberal Democratic parties) and one extremely right Liberal party. The real power is in the hands of Democratic Party of Moldova (DPM) and Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (LDPM) in the person of their leaders – the acting president Marian Lupu and prime minister Vladimir Filat. The Liberal party generally carries out the functions of “ideological supervision” of ruling coalition, but also has a number of key governmental portfolios (in particular, the Minister of Defence Valery Marinutse is the ardent supporter of the introduction of Moldova into NATO).

The parliamentary opposition is presented by the Party of communists of the Republic of Moldova (30 deputy mandates) and Party of socialists (3 mandates). The unparliamentary opposition is presented by the former right and nowadays the centrist Christian Democratic people's party and also a number of smaller left parties (Social democratic, People's democratic, “Patriots of Moldova”, “Equality” and other parties). At the same time there is also a right radical National Liberal party in opposition.

The dynamics of political and social and economic processes in Moldova is characterized by the following indicators:

1. The acute political crisis caused by extreme imperfection of system of presidential election and ignoring of opposition opinion by ruling alliance.

2. The crisis deepening in the economy, caused by inconsistency of ministers’ actions and “coalition wars” in the government.

3. The deepening of social crisis caused by a general crisis in economy, rash antisocial measures of the government, growth of municipal tariffs, closing of schools etc.

According to poll of Association of sociologists and demographers of Moldova, carried out in January, 2012, 45 % of the population doesn't trust any of the politicians. The opposition Party of communists uses the greatest popularity. If the elections took place on the next Sunday, nearly 32 % of respondents would vote for PKRM. However, as a whole it wouldn't allow to resolve a crisis situation in the power all the same. The alliance parties as a group would gather approximately as much: LDPM -17,5 %, DPM - 7,8 % and Liberal party - about 6 %.

The Orthodox Church, mass media and local authorities use the greatest trust among the population and are on the first place among the establishments.

- What is the relationship between the leading politicians of the country - V. Filat, M.Lupu, M. Ghimpu and V. Voronin? What is your prospects assessment of the development of the Russian-Moldavian relations?

- I bring the following table to your attention:

• Situational cooperation
• Personal conflict or conflict of interests
• Ideological conflict

The Russian-Moldavian relations are difficult and hard predictable for today. The periods of the sharp conflicts and gradual improvements distinguish the relation of both countries during 1990-2000th years.

Mircea Snegur's period (1990-1996) was noted by the sharp conflict at the beginning of board (1991-1993) with gradual improvement by its end (1994-1996).

Peter Luchinsky's period (1996-2001) was noted by a tendency to gradual improvement of the Russian-Moldavian relations as a whole.

Vladimir Voronin's period (2001-2009) was the most difficult period: considerable improvement of the relations (2001-2003), then their sharp deterioration (2004-2007), then again prompt improvement (2007-2009).

Post-Voronin period (since 2009) is characterized by deterioration of the relations as a whole, as on April 7, 2009, “Twitter revolution” passed under the anti-Russian slogans with West support.

The period of acting president Mihai Ghimpu (2009-2010) is characterized by the greatest deterioration of the Russian-Moldavian relations since 1993.

The period of the acting president Marian Lupu (since 2010) is characterized by aspiration of Lupu and prime minister Vladimir Filat to adjustment of the relations with Moscow. However the moderating of Alliance from the USA and the European Union and also ideological patrol over Alliance from Liberal party and the right wing of LDPM doesn't allow to hope for fast improvement of the relations.

The ambassador of Russia in Moldova Valery Kuzmin uses special hatred from almost all parties of ruling “Alliance for European Integration”. The next splash in the anti-Russian hysteria was noted after New Year's incident on a peacekeeping post when the Russian serviceman peacekeeper mortally wounded the local, the citizen of Moldova after that he broke a check point regime by the car for several times in a defiant form.

- What directions are first-priority for a foreign policy of Kishinev? What are the prospects of Moldova participation in the subregional association the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development GUAM and in EU program “East partnership”?

- The definite course on European integration is characteristic for a present foreign policy of Kishinev. Now the government tries to achieve a visa-free regime for Moldova with EU countries. And, according to the expert of the Polish Center of east researches Rafal Sadowski, Moldova already overtook Ukraine in the course of liberalization of a visa regime with EU. The present westernized leadership of Moldova enjoys all support of the European Union countries. In particular, the European states and banks allocate the credits and grants for repair and development of infrastructure, highways and railway transport of Moldova.

Moldova is the country - cofounder of Guam from the moment of creation of this association in 1997. The revival attempt of GUAM as anti-Russian sanitary cordon was in 2005-2007 when the Russian-Moldavian relations reached the lowest point of cooling. Therefore Moldova actively participated in revival of GUAM: the first summit of this revived organization was carried out in Kishinev in April, 2005 (before it Voronin received the support on presidential election from allies in GUAM Yushchenko and Saakashvili).

Moldova took part in the summit of GUAM in 2006, having become the cofounder of association Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM. In December 2005, Moldova became the founder of Community of the democratic choice, the president Vladimir Voronin took part in the Vilnius summit of 2006 where the vice-president Dick Cheney acted with scandalous anti-Russian speech.

However, since 2007, Kishinev, aspiring to improve the relations with Moscow, sharply reduces the interest to GUAM. Vladimir Voronin blocked the creation of a peacekeeping battalion GUAM and in 2009 declared that this organization “is impractical and unpromising”. However he didn't decide on an exit of Moldova from GUAM.

After 2009 the new leadership of Moldova repeatedly expressed aspiration to stir up the activity in a framework of GUAM, but today already Ukraine doesn't burn with the desire to intensify this association.

Moldova actively participates in programs of “East partnership”. At the beginning of February the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary Janos Martonyi, having estimated the efforts of the Moldavian authorities in the course of liberalization of a visa regime with EU among the participating countries of the European program “East partnership”, called the Republic of Moldova as “success history”.

Nevertheless, according to the leading scientist of the European Council on Foreign Relations Andrew Wilson, “the joining of Moldova to EU is impossible within the next 10-20 years”. The reasons, according to him are “both slow implementation of reforms and huge internal problems in the European Union”.

- What disturbs the development of the Russian-Moldavian interregional relations? What steps from Russia are waited by the management and the people of Moldova?

- Three factors stir to the development of relations:

1) Lack of regulation of the Dnestr conflict;

2) Existence of the strong anti-Russian lobby in the Moldavian establishment which is supported of a number of social groups and regions of the country (the humanitarian and creative intellectuals, scientific community, students, inhabitants of rural areas of the central and priprutsky regions of the country);

3) Weak interest of Russia in fight for Moldova and activity stirring up in this region.

The management and the people of Moldova wait for the following steps from Russia:

1) Settlements of the Dnestr conflict;
2) Elimination of peacekeeping posts (at least where they aren't necessary – in particular, in the heart of the territories being under jurisdiction of Moldova);
3) Activization of bilateral trade and economic relations;
4) Access of the Moldavian alcoholic and fruit-and-vegetable production on the Russian market and the terminations of activism of the Russian Agency for Health and Consumer Rights led by Gennady Onishchenko;
5) Simplifications of conditions of stay and employment of the Moldavian workers in Russia;
6) Allocation of the credits and grants to Moldova on various economic and infrastructure projects;
7) Increase in quotas for the Moldavian students in the Russian higher education institutions.

Besides, the Russian-speaking population of Moldova (about 15-20 % of the population of the country) waits of additional support of their ethnic and linguistic rights from Moscow and also the support of their efforts on prevention of Romanization of Moldova.

- What states act most successfully on the market of Moldova?

- The USA and EU countries act most successfully on the Moldavian market. From 2006 to 2009, the number of the American companies acting in the Moldavian market exceeded 380 and investments into authorized capital passed for 40 million dollars. There are also Russian, Ukrainian, Romanian and Asian companies In the Moldavian market.

- What steps are undertaken by Kishinev on a diversification of sources of hydrocarbons import?

- Now Moldova buys 100 % of natural gas in Russia from JSC Gazprom which has the control stock (50 %) of JSC Moldovagaz.
Moldova intends to diversify the import sources of energy resources and to buy the Azerbaijani natural gas within the international power projects on transportation of energy resources from the Caspian pool to Europe - Nabucco and AGRI (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector).

However, according to the senior expert of Fund “Institute of power and finance” Sergey Agibalov, the participation of Moldova in such projects is up in the air that is connected with lack of money and low volumes of consumption.

Now the number of the Moldavian villages comes back to heating of schools and other rooms with straw and a waste of livestock products. According to the Minister of Economics Valery Lazer, ownerless in the past more than 700 thousand tons of straw on fields of Moldova can replace 25 % of imported Russian gas. Thus, according to Lazer, the energy received from straw not only in times is cheaper some consumed gas, but for this purpose it is not necessary to spend the months and sometimes the years for negotiations on its delivery: more than one could ever want, it rolls under the feet.

Besides the use of the biological fuel in Moldova, the project on creation of the modern wind park started by means of Turkish investments, capable to provide, according to the deputy Minister of Economy Illarion Popa, another 10 % of all energy consumed in the country.

- What is the position of the Russian-speaking population and state of the status question of the Russian language?

- The position of the Russian-speaking population in Moldova is better, than in the countries of the Baltic States. At the beginning of the 90th, “zero variant” of the nationality was accepted in Moldova, according to which each permanent resident of the former Moldavian SSR was provided with the citizenship of the Republic of Moldova.

According to population census of 2004, 75,8 % of the Moldavians, 8,4 % of the Ukrainians, 5,9 % of the Russians, 4,4 % of the Gagauzes, 1,9 % of the Bulgarians live in Moldova (not including Transdniestria). 16 % of the citizens use the Russian in the daily communication.

The Russian language, according to the law of languages functioning of 1989 year, is the language of international communication in all territory of Moldova. In the territory of the Gagauz autonomy, the Russian language is one of three official on a level with the Moldavian and the Gagauz languages.

PCRM after coming to power, carried out in 2002 the law through parliament on use of the Russian equal in rights on a level with the Moldavian and about obligatory studying of the Russian language at schools, but the constitutional court cancelled this law under the pressure of nationalist performances.

Since 90th years, the gradual narrowing of usage of the Russian language is characteristic in Moldova. The prestige of getting education on the Russian falls that is shown in a shortage of schoolchildren in the Russian schools and students in the Russian groups at universities. It is a consequence not only of the share reductions of the Russian-speaking population owing to labor migrations abroad, generally to Russia, but also the result of language policy of the authorities of Moldova which is carried out in education and also the personnel policy interfering the employment in public institutions and the organizations of persons, who got the education in the Russian language.

The mass dismissals of experts from various departments (especially from the sphere of finance, education and power structures) were carried out throughout all twenty years' period of independence of Moldova because of lack or weak knowledge of the state language. This policy was actively carried out in the 90th years and partially after PCRM coming to power (generally at lower level). The Russian-speaking experts practically are absent among the staff of the Ministry of Health, Culture, Education, Foreign Affairs. The share of the Russian-speaking twice less than their numerical share in population structure in total number of the judicial case of the republic (most clan).

Since 1990, the number of comprehensive schools with the Russian language of training was reduced more than twice. Teaching of the Russian is reduced to a minimum. So, according to the curriculum of 2007 year, it was allocated for the Russian language the following: 5 form - 4 hours per week, 144 per year; 6 form - 3 hours per week, 108 per year; 7 form - 2 hours per week, 72 per year; 10-12 forms of humanitarian profile-1 hour per week, 36 hours per year.

The access to different information on the Russian was purposefully limited. The million volumes of literature in the Russian language, including Pushkin, Dostoevsky's creations, Gorky, Sholokhov, the Russian and Soviet classics, including living and creating in the territory of Moldova were withdrawn from the library stocks on the basis of departmental instructions. The situation with providing of the Russian schools with educational and methodical materials became aggravated to a limit.

The Russian textbooks arriving in the area of the governmental program of the help to compatriots, are used in educational institutions of pre-university link of the Republic of Moldova and free of charge extend on schools. However any of the Russian textbooks are used as the basic that is connected with the established requirement to use only the textbooks created in Moldova and curriculum corresponding to program requirements in a subject as the main textbooks for national school. Thus, various Russian textbooks are used only as “additional” at the choice and discretion of the teacher or educational institution.

One of the serious problems, which the Russian-speaking population faces, is poor quality of teaching of the Russian language in Russian educational institutions. It is connected as with low level of teachers’ preparation in higher education institutions of Moldova and the reduction of number of the groups preparing the experts on the Russian language, and that the state practically withdrew from preparation of textbooks, methodical manuals in the Russian language.

In the conditions of considerable presence of the Russian language in the electronic mass media, the local authorities take measures for support of distribution of a state language in this sphere. According to the Code of Television and Radio of the Republic of Moldova, which came into force on January 1, 2007 (at power of PCRM!), not less than 70 % of a broadcasting time should be filled with transfers in the Moldavian language.

Almost everywhere on the address submitted to the authorities in the Russian language, the official answer arrives in the Moldavian language. Quite often the citizens are refused in the oral address in the Russian to representatives of power structures (especially in judicial authorities). Now the bodies, registering the acts of civil status, practically all documents (certificates on marriage registration, the birth, death and others) make out only in the Moldavian language.

Despite of that the law regulated the order of spelling of names and surnames only the persons of the Moldavian nationality, the establishments of health care, social security and others continue the execution of registration documents of citizens of other nationalities with violation of the established rules that leads to distortion of surnames, names and patronymics. The visual information, beginning with the signs on buildings of bodies of the public power, is made, with rare exception, only in the state language. The similar situation with information is in medical institutions, establishments of internal affairs, vessels, prosecutor's offices.

- What is going to do Kishinev for change of a peacekeeping format in a zone of the Moldavian-Dnestr conflict and also for the termination of the Russian military presence in the region?

- The leadership of Moldova intends to bring an attention to the question of a conclusion of the Russian peacekeepers during negotiations in a format “5+2”. For the sake of this purpose (and at the same time for the sake of influence decrease of Russia during these negotiations) they achieve the raising of the status of the USA and EU in a trunk-call format from observers to permanent members. Moldova will achieve the support of these requirements from external forces (the USA, Germany, France, Ukraine and other countries) with their subsequent pressure upon Russia. Carrying out of the “mass” actions directed by the authorities against the Russian peacekeepers and other provocations is planning at the same time.

- How the Moldavian, Dnestr and foreign political scientists, politicians, scientists and public figures estimate the prospect of Dnestr settlement?

- As a whole the assessment of these prospects is rather negative, than is positive. For today the parties stand on the mutually exclusive positions which are not reduced to any general denominator. Especially it concerns the moods in the Moldavian and Dnestr societies. At the same time the majority of experts are positively adjusted concerning the tactics of “small affairs”, that is concerning concrete actions for trust restoration between the parties, works of the joint commissions and improvement of life of simple citizens. In particular, unblocking of railway communication through Transdniestria, the solution of a telephone problem, joint recognition of diplomas and many other things … The share of optimistic moods considerably increased in Tiraspol after the power change and coming to power of president Evgeny Shevchyuk who has made a number of essential steps towards to Kishinev.

In the short term, it appears, both parties considerably will give the most part of time to internal affairs, than to permission of the Dnestr conflict. On the other hand, both parties can use a factor of the Moldavian-Dnestr conflict for the internal purposes: the building from an image of “the general enemy”, mobilization of society and strengthening of a personal authority. On the other hand, the opposition forces on both coasts can use the concessions of the authorities as the proof of their “national betrayal”.

A lot of things will depend also on intensity of external forces intervention in the conflict settlement: first of all, the USA, EU, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Romania and other countries. Russia will try to settle the conflict anyway, pursuing the aims of preservation of the presence at the region while other players will make efforts for replacement of Russia from the region. Such tug-of-war, undoubtedly, will amplify after Vladimir Putin's election as the president of Russia and also during presidential campaign in the USA and after it. Especially, if “hawk” will win on presidential election of the USA.