Oligarchs, opposition and nationalists are the three-headed dragon of Euromaidan

The director of the Centre of the Politological Analysis and Technologies (Donetsk city) Sergey Anatolyevich Baryshnikov answers the questions of «The world and we» about the reasons and consequences of Euromaidan.

— What are the main driving forces, in your opinion, which support Euromaidan existence and protest actions in Ukraine?

If to compare 2004 year and the present situation, that «orange» Maidan and present Euromaidan differ, first of all, that now together with definite purposes a number of factors merged together. It is both internal factors and external influence. And their combination, symbiosis is today aggravating for the power and the president Yanukovych personally the moment. Here the part of oligarchs is involved in the arisen situation. Of course, the attempt of «yesterday's orange» who are in opposition to return to the power on a wave of national discontent with a social and economic situation in the country. And it is the outstanding «passionarity» of a certain part of Ukraine which is unused to some extent, first of all, the western areas — inhabitants who all these four years the Party of Regions saw how the certain hostile pole. At the same time for these areas Yanukovych is a certain foreign matter, the enemy No 1 who has to be prostrate in any way.

All this in the sum created an external outline of today’s system crisis. Though, of course, in itself this system crisis is generated by inability of Ukraine to full existence and development, as independent state in modern conditions of globalization. Ukraine unlike smaller both on the territory and on the population countries participates in world processes less actively and isn’t capable to become subject not only of world politics, but also even the European, regional policy. It is only the object of all levels of political process.

— What role in occurring events is played by nationalist forces, whether they can get out of hand and create any critical situations in this situation?

It was obvious that the country leaders cultivated this right radical pole to some extent all these years. The scenario was played which appeared today the extremely dangerous. Even in vague result we see that right radicals rather easily get out of the control of masters of secret, unofficial games of politics. Their over activity and, actually, transition to a stage of street fight confirms it. Therefore the Party of Regions in the person of the president and his immediate environment, obviously played in this game. It can become the beginning of very serious destructive situation in the country. And, probably, already there is.

— Can the agreements signed between Ukraine and Russia on December 17, radically change a situation in Ukraine?

Not so long ago the prime minister told the words that actually Russia saved Ukraine from inevitable economic and system collapse, from slipping in an abyss. And it occurs, at least, not for the first time. So was in 2003 at the president Kuchma when there was a serious food, grain crisis. In that case Russia shared stocks from the strategic grain with the brotherly state. And I see a root and a fundamental basic basis of those agreements to which the Kremlin went, without looking at any internal and external political circumstances of the last time.

The Russian President has no illusions concerning the one whom are the top officials of the Ukrainian power, in particular, Yanukovych, how great his degree of reliability as partner. Three and a half years they told about the course invariance on European integration. Certainly, hardly Russia was delighted with it. But Ukraine in chaos and at the bottom of an abyss is least acceptable for Russia. Russia to a lesser extent, than some imperious circles in Ukraine, is interested in its destruction, disorder and final crash as it sounds strange for our some «patriots». Therefore Russia was compelled to offer really the hand, to lend the «economic» shoulder without any visible conditions. Though I am sure that any conditions have to be sounded in bilateral dialogue, in the closed or half-closed mode. But the European plaints concerning not signing by Ukraine of the Agreement on the association, any figures sounded already a post factum in 20 billion euro — it everything a propaganda peel, no more than an air shaking on public. And really the first tranches went from Russia and absolutely not adequate people can challenge a positive effect from this help.

— Is the change of a foreign policy of Ukraine towards the Customs Union possible in this regard?

There is an important point here — whether Ukraine is necessary in such state, with the obviously maneuvre position to any union? I think that it less necessary owing to these circumstances, than Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and some other countries. It is necessary to construct originally steadier political system, to have more accurate and predicted external and internal political strategy. And then Ukraine will be the partner who potentially is basic, satisfying all scale of the multilateral international relations, first of all, on the former Soviet Union.

Economic rapprochement in this direction is dictated by close political connections, including social and humanitarian block. And I hope that our Ukrainian figures if they manage to keep in power, will draw the corresponding conclusions. Clearness and clarity has to be in everything, there are certain parameters which exceed the limit not permissibly — the strategic partnership has to be filled with the corresponding contents. If these conclusions are drawn, it can install careful optimism of rather further development of a situation because with the present Ukrainian power the optimism can be only careful.