Peter Podalko: “Positive became more in Japan in relation to Russia!”

In July the Chinese newspaper “Wenweipo” which is considered to be close to the authorities, published the article under the name “Six wars in which China has to participate in the next 50 years”.

The essence is simple: “China isn't the united great power. This is the humiliation of the Chinese people, shame of sons of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of a national unification and advantage China has to carry out 6 wars in the next 50 years. Some would be regional, others, probably, of total character. No matter what, all of them are inevitable for the Chinese reunion”.

All these wars are listed in article: the first is the association with Taiwan (2020-2025), the second – return of Spratly islands (2025-2030), the third – South Tibet's return (2035-2040). The fourth war will be with Japan for Senkaku islands (2040-2045), the fifth – association of External Mongolia (2045-2050), and, at last, the sixth war is planned with Russia. It looks so: “Return of islands from Russia (2055-2060)”.

We asked to comment on this article of our expert - the professor of Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo Peter Podalko. He teaches at faculty of international policy, economy and communications, conducts special courses on history and geography. He defended in Japan two dissertations in Japanese, wrote some books about the Russian-Japanese relations.

- I read this article. Here that is interesting: it is printed in July, and English translation appeared only in September. It is necessary to tell the original looks where threatening: the mass of illustrations there– fighters in the sky, paratroopers land from the sea … And below small such note: this material reflects especially author's point of view, the editorial staff doesn't bear the responsibility for it.

- As a rule, such texts don't appear simply. They always carry out certain tasks. For example, to probe public opinion or to start couple of new ideas …

- Probably, that it is the same in this case. In Asia these methods are widely applied too; there are also authors who are engaged in it and special editions where everything is published.

I have communicated to the Chinese colleague concerning this article – he says that he never met such author before; most likely the pseudonym is specified.

More interestingly is another: this edition is Hong Kong, but it is better known on the continent! That is, it is something like such the window from Hong Kong to continental China. Also it reflects exclusively the point of view of the continent on the most different questions. By the way, the edition isn't so popular in Hong Kong, unlike the same continental China. And the edition headquarters in general is in Aberdeen!

- One of the wars which the article predicts to China in the future is a war with Japan because of disputable islands. What does Japan speak about it today?

- Nobody remembered Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands while last year they were unexpectedly nationalized. The most interesting that legally the islands, really, belonged to Japan, but, so to speak, in a private order – they were owned by one Japanese family. And the fact of transfer of islands from private in state ownership generated a known collision. Actually, the Japanese became the hostages of actions of local nationalists.

There is very noticeable politician of this sense – the former governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishikhara. In the past he is very known writer, the popular playwright, he politicized about 15 years ago and many years were headed stretch by Tokyo. Something like our Yury Mikhaylovich Luzhkov … He left policy when was already more 80 years.

But, having left on rest, he unexpectedly formed the block with very right, radical politician from Osaka who is called as local “Fuhrer” in this city. It is a question about Toru Hasimoto. And so, Ishikhara, still being the mayor of Tokyo, made surely sharp political statement at least once a year. For example: to move immediately all immigrants from Japan or to stop learning of foreign languages …

The next initiative put forward already a duet: if the government of Japan can't find money for purchase of these islands, the prefecture of Tokyo can buy Senkaku. Though look at the map: where is Tokyo and where are Senkaku islands?!

- How does the public opinion of Japan react?

-Frankly speaking, it is all the same to broad masses. The inhabitants simply spit on it. The reason is simple: they never wrote, didn't speak about Senkaku unlike “northern territories”. Five years ago it was impossible to present that someone will speak about Senkaku!

So, the public opinion on this question while isn't created really. And if to offer the average Japanese citizen a choice: for what to fight – for the Kuriles or Senkaku, this choice would be unanimous and unambiguous.

- There is such point of view that the growth of power of China has to rouse Russia and Japan to forget about disagreements and to establish contacts, figuratively speaking. Is such point of view discussed in Japan?

- Absolutely no! You understand, today Japan has territorial problems with all the neighbors. It challenges Senkaku islands with China, applies for the Russian territory – the Kuril Islands, and argues because of the Takeshima (Tokto) island with Korea. And only Senkaku are the territory of Japan at present; there is the Korean patrol on Takeshima …

However, it is necessary to tell, that it is not the first of all discussion in Japan – the subject of “number one” here is a problem of the introduction in the Pacific partnership which is lobbied actively by the Americans. There are big conversations round it: how to enter, on what conditions, when?

- Now about the Russian-Japanese relations. How the country of the Rising sun treated idea at first to sign the peace treaty, and then to solve problems which are available?

- There are no motions still. The position of Japan remains invariable: at first give us the islands, and we will sign the peace treaty then.

But I want to tell about the new trends. Here very positively estimate the meetings of the president of Russia Vladimir Putin and the prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe. There were no such meeting in such format ten years and this year Putin and Abe, since the spring, met already four times. And president Putin the first of foreign heads congratulated the Japanese prime minister that Tokyo acquired the right to carrying out the Olympic Games. Here it was estimated very positively. And Abe right there told that heis not against to go on the Olympic Games to Sochi …

By the way, it is more written about Russia in newspapers, especially after initiatives of Russia of situation settlement in Syria. Now the subject of Russia quite regularly rises in Japanese editions, and not in the negative sense as it was earlier, but in such moderate and informative key.

The idea is very popular nowthat it is necessary to master new formats of Russian-Japanese negotiations participated not only bosses, but also key ministers (format “two on two”). Intensity of negotiation process grew and it is very much welcomed in Japan.

I want to tell about one more thing. The leading Japanese newspaper “Mainichi Shimbun” now publishes the color appendix “Russia Now” once a month under the agreement with “The Russian newspaper”: there is a lot of information, including, about the Russian regions. As a whole the relation to Russia improved both at official level and at the level of mass media, but thus according to the peace treaty Japanese don't depart from the positions yet.