Peter Podalko: “The war won't be because of the Kuril Islands!”

The professor of Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo Peter Podalko told in interview to our portal about the territorial dispute of Japan and China because of Senkaku Islands (Diaoyudao). Japan argues with Korea too because of Takesima Islands (Tokto), but there are also the old claims of Japan for the Southern Kuril Islands which it doesn't consider as the Russian territory.

Peter Podalko tells about how today in Japan treat “Kuril problem” and how the situation changed in recent years:

- Before coming to power of Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev practically nobody in the Soviet Union and not so much in Japan who knew that we have certain territorial debates. By and large all these conversations began in the 80th years and the statement which was made by Minister of Foreign Affairs Edward Ambrosis dze Shevardnadze of that time became a push to them. He told that there is a sense to return to conversation on existence of certain unresolved problems between two countries.

All this occurred just in those times when we and the People's Republic of China resolved similar issues concerning border on Amur. In Japan it was right carried on that is quite clear: Japan of that time had a reason to increase the degree in the relations as the Soviet Union already obviously was on recession and Japan just the opposite – on lifting.

- How did the situation change lately?

- It only was aggravated; in that sense that nobody now knows how to solve it … After all, on the one hand, we recognized the existence of a problem and then also confirmed for several times. And our elected president says each time that he would like to solve this problem during his presidency. But presidents, as we know, can be re-elected so it can mean this year, for example and the next decade and simply sometime …

This everything isn't so clear to Japanese. But the matter is not only in that – the matter is that there is a powerful system of information updating in the country concerning the Kuril Islands. The ideological machine works which is debugged long ago! Every week there are materials in Japanese mass media surely with a reminder that the problem exists and that it still isn't resolved and it is necessary to solve it by all means. And, it is obligatory to solve on the basis of declarations of 1956 and 1991 years. And happens that such materials appear more often than once a week …

- What does Japan want? Do they have, if I may say so, the maximum program and the minimum program at least?

- Japanese want to receive absolutely precisely all four islands of the Southern Kuril ridge: Kunashir, Shikotan, Khabomai and Iturup. The main thing, on what the Japanese party makes stress, that all these islands officially weren't included into structure of Russia till 1945. But we have other arguments which the Japanese party knows. And we, naturally, don't want to give the islands. Such precedent isn't necessary to Russia, after all other questions can be aroused– for example, about the status of Kaliningrad …

If to tell frankly, nobody wants the transfer of islands, probably. First of all, recognizing that it can lead to creation of weight of unnecessary consequences! And not only for us, but for the majority of the countries of the modern world.

- That is, there is no discussion in Japan: they consider two islands as own or all four?

- Principle is such: or all four islands, or nothing. The variant with two islands was absolutely not for long. Boris Nikolaevich Yeltsin offered it during a meeting in Krasnoyarsk with Japanese prime minister Ryutaro Hasimoto. According to the informed people, he made this proposal spontaneously and unexpectedly even for the immediate environment. Hasimoto wasn't ready to discuss it at once – as a result he spent the night for negotiations with Tokyo. Well, meanwhile Yeltsin was convinced that it is impossible to do it … And next morning, when Hasimoto approached to him with the offer to continue the conversation, Boris Nikolaevich answered that it was necessary to think earlier …

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin said that the issue can be resolved. But only in “half” option that categorically doesn't suit Japan. It is explained by existence in Japan very powerful political forces on the extremely right flank: they demand that Russia gave all four islands.

- Why this subject is so important for Japan? The essence is in economy, or the policy sphere prevails?

- Really it is necessary for nobody. If in late Soviet period the leaders of our country didn't do eases and if M.S.Gorbachev didn't try to please all possible neighbours, so in my opinion there would be nothing in general. Economically the Kuril Islands won't give such special to Japan and in the political sense it can be seen only in opportunity to create such precedent then to put pressure upon neighbours. After all Japan has the territorial disputes as well with Korea and China.

- How Japan treated the visit of the president Dmitry Medvedev to the Kuril Islands?

- This visit according to Japanese has very negative impact on a condition of the bilateral relations as had no logical explanation. It is considered that the idea was prompted to Dmitry Anatolyevich by someone from his immediate environment. And the matter is that none of the Russian, Soviet and Post-Soviet leaders never visited the Kuril Islands: neither emperor, nor secretary general, nor president … Here he was prompted that it is possible to become the first!

But here noticed that purely geographically the way from Hanoi to Moscow is not through the Kuril Islands at all. To arrive for three hours and to make the couple of memorable pictures – it is difficult to find rational grain in it. To render the economic help to the Kuril Islands? But it can be done from Moscow. Generally, in a situation of fall of 2010 Medvedev's visit to the Kuril Islands in Japan apprehended as a certain call.

And there was just the new party Minsyuto in power in the country. It had to correct quickly the position taking into account the new circumstances. Thus Japan noticed that the Russian president moved on “Nissan patrol” jeep on islands and this circumstance caused brisk comments. Observers concluded that it isn't so patriotic – it is better the president of Russia of that time would go by the domestic car …

- There was information that one of bought Mistral helicopter carriers by Russia in France will be deployed on the Pacific Ocean. Is it somehow discussed in Japan?

- It isn't discussed in any way. This purchase interests nobody there.

- A number of the Russian experts, for example, Sergey Pereslegin, very much even seriously discussed not so long ago the possibility of armed conflict because of the Kuril Islands. Is such scenario possible?

- No, it can't be! All the matter is that it would be the war with America, instead of Japan. According to the existing constitution Japan can't wage war without participation of the USA. Respectively, the war with Japan becomes the war with the USA, and any party won't go on such.

I think, as for the Kuril Islands, there are no variants today. It is unlikely the situation will change in this or that side.