Russia and the West don't give special value to the Ukrainian elections

The political expert, the director of Humanitarian Strategy Fund Mikhail Pavliv answers the questions of Internet portal “The world and we”.

What is the reason of pressure of the West on the operating Ukrainian management? Only because of Tymoshenko's case or there are any more significant reasons?

- My opinion that the reason is only one here– the lobbyists of the Ukrainian power in the West appeared in losing situation concerning the lobbyists of the Ukrainian opposition. The priority was given to the offers which were made by the Ukrainian opposition. Possibly, they appeared more attractive, than the offers of the present power. It is the reason of an observable situation.

Probably, the recent steps from the ruling team, directed on cooperation development with Russia cause such reaction of the West?

- In my opinion, here is the opposite sequence. Owing to an existing position of Euro - Atlantic community, the representatives of the Ukrainian power started to develop the cooperation with Russia to a greater extent.

How can you comment on dynamics of ratings of the main political forces for the last some months, growth of ratings of Party of Regions and return trend of the United Opposition?

- It is an expected result concerning the Party of Regions because there was a certain electoral mobilization and it remained within the same Party of Regions and, traditionally, the communists. If to speak about a jumping rating of the United Opposition, so there is a matter of the work of political strategists. Due that they were in a shadow of the “rating dependent” leader for long period, now appeared not ready, inadequate to the conditions of this company.

What can you say about Udar party? Some people call it as the certain “spoiler” which works for the Party of Regions. Is it so?

- First of all, it is not the third force. Secondly, it hardly the project of Party of Regions, it doesn't look so, at least. It is nothing surprising that a number of politicians picked up this project who appeared unclaimed at three other main participants of elective process. This political force, without locating own serious human resources, simply accepted to itself those who possessed very much odious image and had a certain experience and weight in the Ukrainian policy. Thus this party was created.

In what degree the current pre-election situation is influenced by Russia and the West? And for what of the parties the upcoming elections are more critical from the point of view of geopolitical interests?

- That is interesting, neither to Euro -Atlantic, nor for Russia the results of these elections have no critical value. The configuration of the Ukrainian power won't change. Especially technological moments, tools will be involved, some negotiation process conducted, of course. But, considering that really will change nothing, it is difficult to say that these elections have any basic value for these two parties.

In your opinion, for what reason there is no real third force in Ukraine which would meet the requirements of citizens and everything is in same “contours”, nothing changes?

- These are the objective realities. Today we still endure the consequences of 2004 year events. And now those political forces which were issued fully owing to events of 2004 participate in the elections. When they will descend from political “sky”, there will be some “third” force which right becomes the first. The Ukrainian society isn't so stratified that there was any third party. It always will have any two parties. Simply the third force will be the first or the second. Two main ideas act generally. Therefore I consider impossible the formation of the third force in Ukraine.

Can the All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” pass in parliament?

- It can, there is such chance. All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” and “Ukraine - Forward” are in boundary situation. How their resources and possibilities will be realized in recent days before elections, such result we will see. The Svoboda party has more chances in this situation. They already are in a “front” zone about 5 % and, probably, already pass this boundary. In any case, they have more chances to pass in parliament than the party of Korolevska.

What are your forecasts according the results of elections? Whether they will correspond to the current ratings of the main political forces or surprises are possible?

- They won't differ from the ratings declared now much more. In principle already now, that the small period is left, the mobilization is high, practically everyone who anyway is going to participate in elections, already stated the position in ratings. Therefore, nothing will change considerably. Correction in some percent is possible only. It is difficult to assume, that in Ukraine according the Georgian example there was something such because of what one of the political forces will have a sharp correction down.