Shine and poverty of the Ukrainian fascism

Political forecasts are ungrateful matter. The situation changes sometimes so quickly that seeming yesterday indisputable, today looks very doubtful. And vice versa: that was represented recently absolutely improbable, becomes suddenly the reality. “We hear a lot of examples in the history”, as grandfather Krylov wrote once, though slightly other occasion. To act here as the oracle is more expensive to yourself. And, nevertheless, I will try to make one forecast.

Literally the other day the leader of the neo-fascist All-Ukrainian association “Svoboda” Oleh Tyahnybok declared that the present structure of the Verkhovna Rada can't work and won't work. So, in the nearest future we are expected by early parliamentary elections.

One more member of “Svoboda” Ruslan Koshulinsky, the vice speaker of parliament from the same political force hurried to assent to Tyahnybok. It seems, “Integrated Opposition”, blocking a parliamentary tribune, achieves the re-elections. On the other hand, some deputies from ruling Party of Regions started talking about a high probability of dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada. That is, it is possible to draw a conclusion, apparently: the ghost of early parliamentary elections wanders about Ukraine.

And so, I will dare to assume that the ghost remains a ghost and won't be embodied in reality. No early election happens in the near future. At once I will emphasize: exactly in the near future. Because in few months the situation can cardinally exchange. But today everything is so.

Desire of the Ukrainian fascists quicker to arrange re-elections is quite explainable. The conceived turn out – “Svoboda” will increase its representation in parliament. In the fall of the past year (when the last elections passed) the political prospects of the members of “Svoboda” were very foggy. Many doubted that Nazis will manage to break a five-percentage barrier generally and to get to parliament. Because of these doubts the considerable part of in opposition adjusted electorate preferred to make secure (that the voice wasn't gone!) and voted for other opponents of the power - |Integrated Opposition” or Vitaly Klitschko's party “Udar”.

But after neo-fascists broke the specified barrier with a double stock of voices, the doubts didn't remain in their political solvency. And in case of new elections, the considerably bigger number of voters will vote for them than in the fall. So, at present, the re-elections to “Svoboda” are extremely desirable. And the sooner, the better. However, the problem is that from all forces presented in the present Verkhovna Rada, the elections now are useful only for the Ukrainian fascists.

Re-elections are absolutely not favourable to “Integrated Opposition”. Well at least for the reason that the members of “Svoboda” will improve the results first of all at its expense.
Having started the blocking of a parliamentary tribune, the fraction of “two zero” (it is so called in the people) again, not in time first already, figuratively speaking, got into a mess. Objectively working for dissolution of parliament, “Integrated Opposition” works to the detriment. And, as usual, they thought of it too late. Their called leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk (in common language – “Senya –rabbit”) won't get rid in any way of persuasive aspiration to look like “cool guy”. Thus, that for “coolness” he doesn't suffice neither qualities of character, nor external data.

Both the members of “Svoboda” and “Udar” had the time to block a tribune of the supreme legislative body of the country for short term of work of parliament of present convocation. Both those and others made it effectively.

Apparently, having envied the rival allies, Senya decided to show “the powerful force” too. As it became clear, not to the point.

Now the members of “Integrated Opposition” feverishly look for opportunity to stop blocking without a considerable loss for political reputation. And it is a difficult task.

I will notice in passing, that a formal reason for blocking “Integrated Opposition” chose the very improper. Deprivation of deputy powers of Sergey Vlasenko, the member of “Integrated Opposition” fraction and the part-time lawyer of Yulia Tymoshenko is not so burning topic which excites the country. Especially as he was deprived of the mandate just for the specified combining jobs that is forbidden by the Constitution of Ukraine by the way. They deprived according to the decision of the Supreme Administrative Court.

It is possible to speak about political motivation of this decision as much as necessary. But so it is, probably. If Vlasenko was the lawyer of any ordinary swindler, instead of Tymoshenko, nobody would notice the violation. But, whatever one may do, the judgment is made in full accordance with the law.

I think the society will consider the verdict of the Supreme Administrative Court fair. Especially after the size of the fee, monthly received by Vlasenko for rendering legal services of the well-known client, became the property of publicity. 250 (two hundred fifty) thousand Euros! I repeat: per month! Citizens of Ukraine, in the majority, saw such money unless in the movie. The plain people can’t earn such sum for all life. Also it will be extremely problematic to convince these people that at such fees Vlasenko needs also a deputy salary (by the way, very big too) with all surcharges and privileges. It is unlikely this “victim of an arbitrariness” will cause the general sympathy in relation to himself. And this story won't add popularity to the fraction which undertaken to protect him.

Under such circumstances, early election for “Integrated Opposition” if not similar to death, but is fraught with serious electoral losses.

Fast elections aren't favourable to the members of “Udar” too. Apparently, Vitaly Klitschko and his party are tried for a role of the strong contender of the Party of Regions in race for power. Probably, the West will rely on Klitschko on presidential election coming through three years. The boxer approaches in all respects: westernized, moderately anti-Russian, predicted, having authority at part of voters and thus not burdened by reputation of the fascist. But meanwhile, to throw down a challenge to a present regime, the members of “Udar” haven't enough forces. It is more reasonable to them to increase the political power gradually, instead of to be involved in premature pre-election fights.

Unambiguously the early election isn't favourable to communists. Last year's election campaign became their swan song.

Successfully worked slogan “Let's return the country to the people!” the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) doesn't embody in life, doesn't try to embody and, probably, wasn't going to do it. Voters don't forgive such. Respectively, the communists aren't able to repeat last year's success on the following elections. Their interest is in procrastination of term of new national will, instead of its approach.

The members of the Party of Regions aren't interested in early election in the same way. Not because they are afraid to lose. At all the defects, the Party of Regions is the strongest party in Ukraine today. And the main thing is the party possessing a leverage by means of which will manage “to correct” the results of vote if necessary, especially in majority districts. But the embers of majority districts from the Party of Regions gave all the best on recent elections again to call in question the won mandates not without effort.

To put it briefly, nobody is interested in early election now, except the fascists. And the last have no enough opportunities to impose the will to other political players. Though Tyahnybok with companions already actually advertised new elections, now it is necessary to give up. And that it is essential to damage the reputation. The members of “Svoboda” rested that will achieve everything, all will change, “hand won't tremble”, etc. The statement of the Ukrainian fascists leaders provided in the beginning of the article was, to put it mildly, hasty, having put their authors in position of gas-bags. Probably, insufficient political experience of the members of “Svoboda” affected. To be exact their intellectual wretchedness, the poverty, which is permanently follow the shine of the beautiful phrase.

However, it is not the tragedy for “Svoboda”. They still will have time to restore the reputation. Very much it can be that the Party of Regions will help them with the short-sighted policy. But, maybe, won't help if the policy of the members of the Party of Regions would be far-sighted. Everything is in their hands. As yet.