The cataclysms shouldn't be in Kazakhstan …

One of the leading independent political analysts of the republic Yaroslav Krasiyenko told about a modern political situation in Kazakhstan to our portal. He was the first journalist who has shown the Azgirsk nuclear test site and the last who wrote down the interview with Yury Senkevich. Now he is the director of JSC Commercial Television Channel Bureau in the city of Astana.

The news that activity of one of political parties is forbidden in Kazakhstan was the reason for our conversation:

- Alga party is forbidden in Kazakhstan. What it is possible to tell about the reasons of this decision?

- The political association “Alga” (Forward) originates in the beginning -middle of the 2000th years, to so-called “revolt of Young Turks” - to the intra elite conflict which in fact was typical dismantling of “fathers and children”. A number of young politicians and businessmen of Kazakhstan then openly opposed excessive centralization of the power and started conducting the active public work under the standard democratic slogans.

Any time later the intestine strife began in the group of adherents and the race for power began which naturally led to splits and emergence of new parties and movements. On the basis of one of them, “People's party “Democratic choice of Kazakhstan”, which was closed by the authorities for political extremism and kindling of social discord later “People's party of “Alga” was created. All this time the skeleton of activists and sponsors of party remained invariable - to 90 percent of financial requirements of the organization was provided by Mukhtar Ablyazov, the known Kazakhstan oligarch stayed in prison for creation of an organized criminal group and pardoned by president Nursultan Nazarbayev.

After Ablyazov was released, he was engaged in bank activity and formally left the policy. Actually he never stopped Alga party financing, at the same time creating own mediaempire from newspapers, an Internet site and satellite TV channel. At the end of the 2000th years the investigative authorities of Kazakhstan revealed large plunders in bank which Mukhtar Ablyazov directed; moreover, the charge of fraud to the banker was showed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. It wasn't succeeded to detain Ablyazov - he managed to hide in Great Britain from which as practice shows, it is almost impossible to extradite the criminal.

Approximately since that time the mass media belonging to the banker, sharply toughened the rhetoric to the power operating in Kazakhstan, having developed the real information war as a matter of fact. At the same time, the Alga party which was under control of Ablyazov strengthened the work in regions - later this activity absolutely fairly was called as “kindling of social discord”. The association set before itself the purpose of power overthrow and the revolution organization in Kazakhstan about what the party members, without being thawed, spoke at the meetings, including the Internet conferences with Mukhtar Ablyazov. Actually the party turned into the tool of personal fight of the disgraced oligarch with the incumbent president of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev.

The activists of party played a special role in tragic events of the end of the 2011th year in Zhanaozen - they rendered the information and financial support to the striking staff of the oil companies, incited them to radical actions. However even it didn't become the reason of a ban of activity of “Alga” - the unregistered party worked about a year more, all this time by means of friendly mass media, supporting the high degree of intensity in society and creating opposition to any state initiatives.

It is necessary to pay attention to the official program - it occupies only seven pages (for the comparison, the similar basic document of ruling party occupies three times bigger volume). In Alga program we practically won't see any reality, it is the program from the series “for all good against all bad”, consisting of populist slogans and “universal” democratic demagogy. Thus, a number of offers of party which it is possible to call constructive, are so realized - for example, point on akims electivity.

- Were any other similar precedents for 20-year history?

- As I’ve already told, earlier the court closed “People's party “Democratic choice of Kazakhstan” for political extremism. Alga party in its current form is actually a clone of “People's party “Democratic choice of Kazakhstan”. Besides, the activity of one and a half tens various organizations recognized as extremist or terrorist, such, for example, as “Hizb ut-Tahrir” and “Society of social reforms” is forbidden in Kazakhstan.

I don't think that their activists and heads agree with such statement of a question and a position of the authorities and they will be absolutely united with the party members of “Alga”. Both those and others call a ban of their activity as political repressions and dissent suppression. Thus both “Alga” and other forbidden organizations proclaim their purpose as “freedom, equality and a brotherhood”. However, so philanthropic declarations aren't indulgences for the illegal actions conducting to destruction of the state and society.

- If to characterize a party range of the republic, is it possible to reduce it to a formula: “Nur Otan” and the others...

- “Nur Otan” certainly dominates on a political field of the country, approximately the same as the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, ruling practically without breaks more than half a century or “elephants” and “donkeys” in the USA, being two parties of the same medal in fact – the American corporatocratia.

In this respect the party activity in Kazakhstan differs a little from other countries, even with much more developed democratic system. That is, there is the “kernel” which is regularly reproducing the ruling elite (it can be one, two, three parties at most) and there is a mass of small semiassociations – the extremely not self-sufficient and not having a little broad support among the population. Including because of lack of funds for promotional campaigns and vigorous activity in principle.

The main players on a political field of the country now are those parties which are presented in parliament. They are three. This is already mentioned “Nur Otan” which occupies the majority of deputy chairs and also Ak Zhol party (positions itself as association of the national bourgeoisie and the spokesman of interests of businessmen) and the Communist People's party of Kazakhstan standing on unforgettable ideals of Marxism-Leninism. In strategic questions both Ak Zhol and the Communist People's party of Kazakhstan are the allies of “Nur Otan” that only profits both the policy and national economy – the parliament plays a role of really working body providing the legislative support of the chosen course of the country, instead of clownish buffoonery into which it turned, say, in Ukraine.

Thus the presence of two more party fractions at parliament doesn't allow “Nur Otan” to become numb and become covered by a mold – the spirit of the healthy competition takes place anyway.

- How the opposition looks today? What are its prospects and viability now?

- By and large, the Kazakhstan opposition, but to be exact that cut of politicians and public figures which usurped the right to call themselves thus, turned into puppet formation long ago - the tool of personal fight of fluent oligarchs with Nursultan Nazarbayev.

But even in this situation, it is just that is accepted to call “not system opposition” - a number of associations clashing among themselves who are connected only by the general hatred to authorities in power and any its initiatives. That is, any in general… It isn't important, whether there is a speech about interstate integration or pension reform. And this hatred is caused, as a rule, by the different reasons.

Someone removed from “feeding” and he passionately dreams to return there, someone simply has no other political prospects, except as in a niche of total denial of everything that is connected with an existing state of affairs, someone is banal earns money and cheap glory. It is known that it is the easiest to earn the popularity bringing any dividends on populist slogans, passing reason, which beat on emotions at once. The similar line of conduct is the main for the Kazakhstan opposition which “comes to life” only during the electoral period.

By itself that isn't a secret for “wide mass” who in Kazakhstan are politically very competent. It becomes more difficult to oppositionists to collect a little significant quantity of the people on the meetings. Two hundred-three hundred people – here is their limit above which it is impossible to rise, simply for the reason that people feel falseness and see what was in those countries where the population who listened to the demagogues. Therefore this part of a political range in Kazakhstan has no prospects and they can't be. Fresh example – the other day the oppositionists declared about the transfer of the referendum concerning an exit from the Customs Union. The reason is that they can't collect the necessary number of signatures in regions.

- Are any political organizations at Islamists?

- If to consider as the political organization that which expresses any political will, so there are no such organizations in Kazakhstan. In different years in regions of the republic there were structures like “Jamaat of mujahedins of Central Asia” which, in addition, declared aspiration to creation of the Caliphate, however these organizations were smallest and their activity was quickly enough stopped by competent authorities.

And the activists of such structures as “Islamic movement of Uzbekistan”, “Islamic party of East Turkestan”, “Brothers Muslims”, “The organization of liberation of East Turkestan” fell into hands of security officers. However, it isn't necessary to speak about their full political (and any other) activity in the territory of Kazakhstan. Yes, they have own supporters, own “flock”, but they are separated and have no opportunity to expand and strengthen the organizational structures.

- What are the main political events of political year in Kazakhstan?

- In Kazakhstan now there is the next reformatting of system of controls and counterbalances which some even call as operation preparation “Successor”. It is quite obvious that the whole next year will pass under the sign of this reformatting – there will be some “grindings” of elements of a new configuration, easy splashes in the intra elite conflicts are possible – they seldom manage to be avoided when it is a question of change of spheres of influence and redrawing of internal political and economic maps.

There are no bases to expect any cataclysms. Another thing is that in connection with obvious successes of integration processes, the interested forces will provoke all phobias in Kazakhstan. And, first of all, Russophobia and Sinophobia. The relations between the states of region develop too dynamically that, by itself, is not pleasant for all.

First of all, of course, to our transatlantic partners who directly declared that will diligently throw a monkey-wrench into the works of any integration processes, in the second turn – to a certain part of local, homebrew elite. And it is clear too - close (and the main thing honest!) cooperation with neighbours, the work as a part of powerful economic association spells the death of ambitious plans of the regional tsars and dishonest dealers - both businessmen and civil servants. Therefore we, no doubt, will shortly see the real information wars on this soil.