Transit of foolishness from Saakashvili or much ado about nothing

The president of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili has made the offer in parliament of republic to denounce the contract between Russia and Georgia about transit of the Russian military cargoes on the territory of Georgia. It has been signed in 2006. The parties have agreed about the following then: Russia closes the military bases in Akhalkalaki and Batumi and in exchange has an opportunity to take military cargoes free through the Georgian territory to Armenia where in the city of Gyumri there is the 102d Russian military base. This base has appeared in 1995. The well-known complexes S-300 and the fighters MIG-29 are on it.

This base has strategic value, both for Russia and for Armenia. For this reason, last year the term of its functioning has been prolonged till 2044. The parliament of Armenia ratified the report on prolongation of stay term of the Russian military base. It is interesting that the decision was supported by 80 deputies, only one has voted “against” and one more has abstained. The constitutional court of Armenia recognized the new contract corresponding to the country constitution. We will remind that also the ambassador of Armenia in Russia Oleg Esayan has already expressed about it, “Why the military base of Russia is in the territory of Russia? Because Armenia needs it. It corresponds both to interests of Russia and interests of Armenia. The military base together with the armed forces of Armenia carries out the functions of protection of the Russian interests and state security of the Republic of Armenia on all perimeter of its frontiers”.

The decision of the Georgian party to denounce the contract has caused the set of various questions. For example, last time Russia carried out the transit of the military cargoes through Georgia to Armenia in July, 2008. That is till the armed conflict. And after it there weren’t any similar actions in general. It is known that the contract period of validity expires in November, but Mikhail Saakashvili has insisted, that the parliament denounced it. And after all he could make it at any moment after August, 2008 … It is especially funny, according to the experts, the attempts of the Georgian management ostensibly to follow the international law – thus all remember the aggression of Georgia against South Ossetia which wasn't entered any canons of this right.

So, the purpose of Saakashvili is absolutely other, namely political one. Once again to declare that small democratic Georgia resists to the big aggressive Russia and acts thus as civilized country!

What the consequences has the decision of Georgia to denounce the contract for functioning of the Russian military base in Armenia and how it will affect a political situation on the Caucasus?

Firstly about base. It is quite clear that the position of Georgia won't affect its supply in any way. The Yerevan independent political newspaper “New time” has published the article in which this plot was investigated in detail. For example, there is a route through the Caspian Sea and the Iranian cities. Besides, in due time the armies from the Georgian bases were deduced to Armenia, so “stocks in 102d base should suffice still for a long time”. In turn, the former Minister of Defence of Armenia Vagarshak Arutyunyan has declared that the decision of Georgia can't affect the activity of the Russian base in any way which is provided by military technology for functioning in any conditions, even in the conditions of war.
Arutyunyan's conclusion is similar to opinion of journalists, “There are the alternative ways of deliveries – that is a way through Iran, the air space, besides, Russia has its levers which it can use for the decision of similar questions”.

And here is one more opinion. The Armenian political scientist Levon Melik-Shakhnazaryan has formulated the problem in the following way, “I badly imagine that Georgia can try to bring down the Russian planes flying by over its territory even if Tbilisi will precisely know what quantity of the weapon and ammunition is onboard of the Russian or Armenian liner. The similar decision is an open call and the act of war not only in relation to Russia, but also Armenia. And I am simply assured that Georgia will simply disagree to that step, whatever the members of parliament would solve”.

There are also the official comments. The press secretary of the Minister of Defence of Armenia David Karapetyan has underlined that the decision of Georgia “isn't led to change of the environment of Armenia safety … It can't affect the battle readiness of armed forces of Armenia in any way”.

Certainly the decision of Georgia to denounce the contract with Russia about military transit caused the reaction in neighboring countries. For example, in Azerbaijan. The vice-president of committee on safety and defence of Mejlis– republic parliament – Aydin Mirzezade has publicly declared, “the decision of parliament of Georgia will create a new situation on the Caucasus. One who wishes to transfer the ammunition to Armenia should consider the new realities”. And the Georgian expert Pata Zakareishvili has directly declared that, making the decision, the president Saakashvili wanted to please the president of Azerbaijan Ilkham Aliyev. The essence is clear: any problems arising at Armenia should weaken its positions in Karabakh. Therefore Zakareishvili does a conclusion, “The decision is dictated by improving relations with Azerbaijan. Perhaps the Azerbaijanians asked about it. That is the first that occurs”.

The Armenian party, certainly, has immediately reacted. Already mentioned expert Melik-Shakhnazaryan even has given the advice, “I can advise to Aydin Mirzezade and other Azerbaijan politicians who were inspired by the news about M.Saakashvili's initiative to look at the political world map or region”. Sources of "the Russian newspaper" in Georgia have informed that the president Saakashvili “has a grudge against Armenia that recently Yerevan has publicly declared that Moscow is the main strategic partner for him”. “The president of Georgia was literally driven out of his wits by the decision of the Armenian authorities to prolong the term of stay of the Russian armies on base in Gyumri", marks the informed edition.

It is obvious that should change the relations of Georgia and Armenia. Again we will return to the words of the former Minister of Defence of Armenia Arutyunyan. His conclusion is simple and logical, “As the activity of the Russian military base is directed on the safety of the Republic of Armenia, so all steps directed against the Russian military base, are accordingly directed against Armenia”.

The political scientists in Armenia notice that Georgia has contracts about the military-political cooperation with Azerbaijan and they aren't concluded with Armenia... It is characteristic that only the legal questions were discussed during the visit of the Minister of Defence of Georgia to Armenia.

David Petrosyan, the political analyst, considers that the situation on the Caucasus won't improve at all because of the decision of the Georgian party. Firstly, he believes, “The refusal of prolongation of the agreement with Russia on military transit in Armenia will put new problems in a question of military safety for Armenia and ipso facto it doesn't promote the improvement of the Armenian-Georgian relations. Level of mutual trust of Tbilisi won't heighten after that step”.

And secondly, according to Petrosyan's remark, Georgia tries to present itself as the regional leader in vain. Such representations are deprived the bases and moreover, according to the remark of the political scientist, “it is possible to tell with some confidence that Baku and Ankara will use the best efforts not to admit the regional leadership of Georgia”.

The Georgian party, certainly, tries “to sweeten a pill”. The proposal is made to the Armenian party to send the employees on trainings in the Georgian military bases and to direct the youth to the military centers and educational institutions in the territory of Georgia. It is no more than dodge in the big game. And the representatives of opposition to Saakashvili's regime perfectly understand it. For example, the former chairman of parliament of Georgia, the leader of “Democratic movement – unified Georgia”, the known politician Nino Burjanadze has noticed in recent interview, “Saakashvili stands on anti-Russian hysteria. At the expense of it he wants to get support of certain circles outside of Georgia”.

In general it was always so. And after the shattering defeat of the praised army, Saakashvili will invent “all new and new initiatives”. Certainly, it will be a question not only of the politics but also military and strategic questions.
It will be pertinent to give a fragment from Nino Burjanadze's interview:
“Saakashvili asks the defensive arms from the USA and other countries of the West on a case of new war with Russia. How do you think, are such further developments possible?

— All is possible while Saakashvili is in power. The former US State Secretary Colin Powell said in 2008 that Saakashvili and his command are capable to strike matches at a powder keg. It is absolutely exact.

— Will the Americans give such weapon to Georgia?

- No. There are serious people there. They won't want to push Saakashvili to that he again will start to think that can win the Russian army”.

Once Saakashvili already has thought … It is well-known the ending of it. And it is quite clear that history with denouncement of the contract on transit of the Russian military cargoes to Armenia is from the same opera. As they say, much ado about nothing. Meawhile, the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev has signed the law on ratification of the report on prolongation of stay of military base of the Russian Federation in Armenia till 2044 …