Ukraine - EU association – the Ukrainian people isn't considered in this “scheme”

The director of Institute of the Political Analysis and International Researches Sergey Valerianovich Tolstov tells about consequences of signing of the Contract on association of Ukraine and EU in interview to «The world and we».

— Why, in your opinion, despite indisputable advantages of integration into the Customs Union, the Ukrainian power steadily continues to seek for European integration and signing of the Contract on association with EU?

The aspiration to the European integration occurs proceeding from that political concept which was established since Kuchma, continued by Yushchenko and Yanukovych. This concept is entered into the legislation and enjoys essential support in the Ukrainian society.

One more reason is that economic aspects of European integration weren’t well counted, and those cautions which expressed, aren’t absolutely recognized.

One more factor: recognizing that the West is still stronger than Russia, the accession to the West is accompanied by a guarantee of the rights and opportunities of the Ukrainian oligarchy — the first thousand families possessing assets of the Ukrainian economy.

And one more reason is that the Russian side didn’t offer the accurate, clear plan which would allow society and the power well to understand how accession to the Customs Union can be provided and what benefits will be for the Ukrainian economy and society. This complex of four reasons also creates the corresponding effect.

— You have told that accession to more strength provides certain advantages to oligarchies. And does this accession provide any advantages to simple citizens, to the general state of the economy of Ukraine?

When it happened that, solving the problems, the upper crust cared of those who is below? Such isn’t present — it is the socialist ideals. In the world today while there is no state which declares or realizes the doctrine of a Christian socialism.

— In this case, will this stronger partner more operate the Ukrainian economy especially in the interests that will cause the extremely negative consequences for the population of Ukraine?

In general, the consequences for citizens are badly considered in this scheme, practically aren’t taken into account as the top solves their problems. Naturally, they are disturbed by destiny of their Ukrainian assets, but it prefers to postpone these questions for later.

— In the light of Yanukovych’s last visit to Moscow, the results of which became public, in your opinion, does the Russian side have any additional ways of influence because of which the Contract on association won’t be signed?

Minister of Foreign Affairs Leonid Kozhara made the statement a few days ago that Ukraine satisfied all conditions which concern the association of Ukraine and EU and the Ukrainian side won’t focus soon attention on other questions which are beyond already taken measures. That is, if the representatives of EU arrive to Vilnius with intention to sign the Agreement on association, it, most likely, will be signed. But if the European party continues to lay down additional or new conditions, to insist on a question of Tymoshenko, Kiev simply «will shrug shoulders».

— Is the recent meeting of parliament «concerning Tymoshenko» ended with nothing, any signal of intentions of the Ukrainian party?

It shows that the power doesn’t intend to go on any additional requirements from the European Union, and wants to understand, what position is occupied by Europe on the eve of the Vilnius summit.

— Recently the meeting of the Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Businessmen took place at which it was offered to president Yanukovych to postpone the signing of the Contract on association for a year. It is obvious that similar action and the statement couldn’t happen casually, without an initiative from the power. Is it the mediated declaration of plans of the Ukrainian authorities?

Still E. U. exposes a huge number of requirements to Ukraine and it increases in process of approach of the Vilnius summit. Now the Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Businessmen and Federation of Labour Unions of Ukraine makes the demands to the power. I think that at the Vilnius summit, it is less probable that the Ukrainian party also will declare the interests.

— Will the signing of the Contract on association with EU if it takes place, have obvious negative consequences for Ukraine in the most short-term prospect?

It won’t have the next economic consequences as to costitute the agreement on the free trade zone a certain period is necessary for adoption of the relevant decisions. Such decisions won’t be made before summer. Respectively, coming into force of these agreements will begin only since summer, a certain procedural period will be necessary. That is, any consequences can appear only by the end of 2014.

Thus they won’t have landslide character, and will depend considerably on solvency of the Ukrainian domestic market. Therefore, most likely, these consequences won’t have serious impact on presidential election of 2015. Rather an influence will be emotional, but not economic. All the rest will depend on a power position, on opportunity to correct the economic relations with Europe in the current regime.

In this situation a lot of things depend on that it will manage to the power to solve economic problems and contradictions in the relations with Russia. It has even bigger value, than economic consequences from the Agreement on association with EU as the suspense of this question really makes serious destructive impact on the Ukrainian economy.

Today we speak about prospects of deterioration of the economic relations with Russia, and falling of export renders, and will have more serious impact on the Ukrainian economy, than expected consequences from free trade zone action with EU, at least, in the next 3−4 years.