Ukraine loses Europe because of court over Timoshenko

What obstacles see the Ukrainian management at the introduction into the Customs Union, how the court over Yulia Timoshenko will affect the prospects of the European integration of Ukraine — the scientific director of political analytics school of the National university “Kiev-Mogilyansk academy” Alexey Vasilevich Garan answers these and other questions to an Internet portal “The World and we”.

- Many experts, both Russian and Ukrainian, give the results of the researches according to which Ukraine can get considerable advantages, thanks to the introduction into the Customs Union. What arethe main causes of a failure of the Ukrainian management to be integrated into this structure?

I think that the main thing is that now we are the member of WTO through which 95 % of all world trade goes. Neither Russia, nor Belarus and Kazakhstan aren't while the members of WTO. Therefore from the formal point of view if we go to the Customs Union, it means that it is necessary to reconsider all our agreements with WTO. I think, it wasn’t such in the practice of WTO – it is very bulky and clumsy. It can lead to complication of relations of Ukraine with the member countries of this organization. The requirements which are now put forward to Ukraine from the Russian management “or go to us, or not” aren't simply realistic. And here is not absolutely clear, why the Russian side so anxious by the entry of Ukraine in Free Trade Zone. After all the entry to the Customs Union just blocks the possibilities of Free Trade Zone with European Union because we are separated from Europe. And Free Trade Zone doesn't interfere with other associations at all, including with Russia and other CIS countries. Therefore the fears of the Russian side that Free Trade Zone can lead to deterioration of relations with other CIS countries aren't proved. Free Trade Zone and the Agreement on association don't mean the entry of Ukraine into the European Union at all. This question isn't necessary on the agenda. It is economic integration, but it is not the entry into the European Union. And the fears of the Russians here are unnecessary. Free Trade Zone and the European Union leave the possibilities for maintenance of good-neighbourly relations with other countries, including with Russia. The Customs Union simply cuts us off from other countries, considering that we are already in WTO.

Don’t the advantages of the Customs Union, including the development of technological branches of manufacture and simplification of access of Ukraine to traditional commodity markets block those advantages which are at entry in WTO and Free Trade Zone?

We have the examples of the same Belarus which tried to maintain the profound, allied relations with Russia and what? It compelled to give the pipe, oil refining factories and etc. Actually the advantages appear to be short-term. All the same the Customs Union is a supranational structure where Ukraine won't have enough of voices to defend the positions. Here there are also political moments. There is a story and the story of the relations with Russia is not so easy enough — they always promised much but then it appeared that took away the rights from Ukraine.

- But the European Union makes extremely unprofitable demands to Ukraine at discussion of conditions of the entry to Free Trade Zone — enters the quotas on that production which could be exported, puts forward a number of other rigid restrictions.

In this case the matter is compromises — these are compromise agreements. The huge market opens for the Ukrainian goods. Moreover, the procedures and rules will be coordinated under the European standards and Ukraine will start to live according to the European rules. It is very important. Certainly, some branches will lose. For example, the motor industry can lose the positions. But many branches will win.

- How the situation which now occurs to Timoshenko will affect the possibilities under the entry to Free Trade Zone? The more and more rigid statements in connection with these litigation sound from the European Union.

I think regardless of the dependence from a position of the European Union and Timoshenko's arrest was the big nonsense. Because the power proved to be not in the best light, first of all before the Ukrainian citizens and then already before the international community. Therefore, certainly, in a context of negotiations I would tell about association that is the factor which directly interferes with successful end of negotiations about association. And ironically enough, one country wins only which speaks that Ukraine wouldn’t enter the Free Trade Zone but will enter the Customs Union. The paradox turns out again here that the present management has accompanied a position of Moscow with this arrest and has weakened the positions at negotiations with Russia. It is difficult to say who has whispered such as it seems to me, the erroneous decision to the President of Ukraine. I think that now they try to leave this situation, having saved the face.

- What are the prospects of Ukraine in the current gas conflict with Russia? Can the Ukrainian management defend the requirements or the current price for gas will force to meet the Russian offers?

It would like for me as the citizen, that the price for gas was less. After all what has turned out — Yanukovich has made huge concessions to Russia right at the beginning. Also has made in those areas which always were very sensitive for Russia — Sevastopol, a course on approximation with NATO, Golodomor as a genocide, heroization of Bandera. Yanukovich has gone on a meeting with Russia in all these areas, but in exchange hasn't received that he wanted — that is really real reduction of gas prices. It seems to me that if Russia says that it the strategic partner, it could meet the wishes.

The reference of “The World and We”: the deputy of the European Parliament of Poland Marek Sivets has commented a situation with blocking of the introduction of Ukraine in Free Trade Zone because of Timoshenko's business in the following way: “The time frame is very important. If we initial the contract in December, so we can ratify it in this convocation of the European Parliament. The transfer process takes longest time in ratification procedures — year or one and a half. If we would late in December, so we lose not a month or two months, but three years. Nobody knows that can occur then... And the third party Moscow will celebrate the victory”.