Vasily Koltashov: “And crisis didn't come to an end!”

Vasily Koltashov is the head of the Centre of Economic Researches of Institute of globalization and social movements, the author of a number of researches on economic and social problems, political science, psychology, acts as the economic analyst. Lives and works in Athens. The analyst told to our portal what is “European crisis” today and how it influences other countries.

- The European Union which is in the centre of problems of world economy now, there are two factors of destabilization. The first is the crisis development in real economy and the second – the crisis displayed in the financial and raw markets. These two planes disperse very strongly as it was not observed till 2008. Now the problems in real economy directly influence the raw and stock market in much smaller degree. Financial institutions of Europe influence much more.

If we look at the last half a year, the euro strengthening came to the end in the autumn of last year. Then serious problems in a number of the European economy, first of all the southern were bared. Problems in Italy were designated, problems in France got out. And these problems compelled the European Central bank to print a large consignment of money – it was estimated in 700 billion euro. They, first of all, are directed on maintenance of financial institutions, banks.

There were the problems between France and Germany: France supported the South countries. Split of the French-German block was shown on the basis of which the European zone keeps. And, respectively, that scenario that France and Germany will expel all sick economy and thus will keep a strong kernel is almost destroyed. Because France had big problems in own economy while the indicators of Germany remained positive.

That is, it became clear that European zone has not any centres of an illness which call Greek or Spanish, but actually infected with crisis. This crisis develops, amplifies, there is its movement to the north. From the South to the north! And a formula extending in mass media that Germany and France rescue the South countries, doesn't represent the facts, as everything occurs on the contrary! There is a redistribution of means from the South to the North that provides the best provision of economy of the North of the European zone.

The modern European policy is a policy of rigid economy which is under construction of several main directions. The first is the radical reduction of expenses in the social sphere, the second – increase of tax load of the population, the third – reduction of taxes for business waiting for its growth. This is the rigid neoliberal model.

For example, in Greece simply fantastic and absurd decision is made – the tax of this kind is imposed: if someone owns the housing, he should pay quite considerable tax. And it led to that the market of housing and the construction market in the country is killed finally. Many people in the construction sphere left their job, emigrants left Eastern Europe to home and unqualified emigrants try to run away quickly from Greece. They try to move on the north, but their considerable part is not against the home deportation…

Problems in Europe should simply begin owing to that crisis in Europe lagged behind in development the USA. All that was considerably passable in the USA in 2008-09, begins in Europe now. An economic crisis if to take the real indicators, developed for all these years and wasn't in the faded condition at all.

It is possible to expect the reduction of real sector in the north. In Spain the recession of industrial production proceeds for several months and the growth of unemployment reached fantastic level – 25 %! In my opinion, “Great depression” didn't see such indicators at all … The same processes will occur in France. The matter is how rigid will the policy of the new French government appear. If it will appear very rigid, they will worsen a macroeconomic situation in France quickly enough, but financial stability will proceed.

There is a constant fight for firm euro. And if euro goes down now, 8-9 months precisely, so it is a compulsory measure and this step makes with a big reluctance. Both the USA and the European Union have a need for preservation of firm money. In relation to gold and euro, and dollar fell approximately twice since 2008, but the dollar becomes stronger recently just because the republicans could twist the hands to Obama. The dollar rose in price and euro, on the contrary, weakened.
The middle class simply promptly disappears both in Europe and in the USA. The superrich, poor appear and that layer of consumers, who was before, disappears. Mortgage problems in the USA and Western Europe were considerably connected with that this layer overstrained.

And the duty of Greece increases because it is in the interests of the European financial circles which actually receive the money redistributed from consumers of real sector. It is model of periodic stabilization of crisis which is realized in Europe, represents serious danger for the Russian economy. There is today that it is possible to call the stepped descent in crisis.

What will occur if Europe would be released from Greece? Let's say Greece writes off a duty. Up to this moment Greece spent 50 billion euro for repayment of duty and percents. And the revenues of the budget of Greece just make 50 billion! That is, it turns out that 100 % of state revenue should leave on different payments on debts! As a result the duty was doomed to the growth. Its write-off is a necessary condition of rescue of the Greek economy. If Greece writes off a duty and passes to drachma, so in this case the situation can be improved there. It is real! But then it will be a bad example for other European zone …

The European crisis creates big problems for China because both Europeans and Americans complain more and more that the Chinese goods are expensive. Till 2008 all said that the Chinese goods are very cheap and now they say that it is very expensive. If Europe undertakes the efforts on maintenance of the financial sphere, so the same public expenditures are directed on industry maintenance in China.

The vector of development of China didn't change – it remains export oriented. China grows with high speed and this growth can be justifiable only if there will be a demand for the Chinese goods. In summary China very strongly increased a public debt for last year; the Chinese industry has big problems; the Chinese regional banks have difficulties. And as a result there is a situation that the Chinese economy hangs on the state support more and more. It is clear, that in such form that it is carried out, it can't exist for long time.

And sociologists note that if China won't grow with speed not less than 7 % a year, so the acute socio-political crisis begin in the country. Why?! Because the huge army of the low-qualified labour is involved and the slightest changes in its participation in economy are connected with that people simply will have nothing to eat … The system is very fragile because China tries to compensate the growth of cost of the Chinese labour for the cost of working conditions. Let's say there is a work without days off and extremely long working day becomes … And the refusal of such policy will mean that the prime cost of the Chinese goods will increase. China should endure certain political and social and economic shocks in order that it changed.

Last crop failure of 2010 generated actually the Arab revolution! Grain didn't come to Egypt – the prices for the food rose there. Everything appeared on the verge and people suddenly understood that the board system is unfair and that they have no political rights … There is the well-known expression of Engels that the person thinks with the help of stomach. As soon as it became clear that people sustain serious monetary losses, that the situation worsens for them and there is a survival question, the relation to political system changed so instantly. Instantly!

We live already in absolutely other society. There can be a gap and if the situation leaves on this level, so we and other countries, I think Kazakhstan, first of all, will have the political shocks. I have a firm confidence about Kazakhstan because a lot of things are just ready. Nazarbayev's administration managed to lose the face. Let's remember the well-known events in Zhanaozen when the strike was shot and actually there was a crash of regime promotion. Nazarbayev made the decision to forbid the corporate New Year's holidays that the people will not gather on workplaces and will not discuss …

That is, it is already one of powerlessness signs. And it is clear that the regime has no other mechanisms except violence. And the most important is that all understand that it lost the face!

All understand that the system keeps on violence and the system is unfair. And thus, when the Customs Union was created, such words sounded that there the most favourable conditions for business there, everything is good! But actually the situation has a reverse side. And this reverse side just about will blow up in Kazakhstan. It can happen there. Often they ask a question how they will live without Nazarbayev? I think that they will normally live, simply the chaos will begin at first.