Victor Yushchenko: “That’s your stinking gas”...

Yushchenko's phrase “about this stinking gas” endured the author. And though the semi-gone wrong political corpse of the ex-president persistently creeps in the power, all understand that he simply was mistaken the road. He needs to creep to a cemetery where he should rest his soul, having hammered a wooden stake into a grave just to make sure.

But all fairy tales about gas, born at his time, live and are retold by new presidents, prime ministers, ministers and experts of Ukraine. Heating by straw and the branches collected on the neighboring woods, transfer of power plants of the country (including nuclear) on coal, terminal construction for reception of the liquefied gas from Azerbaijan, reverse supply of gas from Western Europe, connection to mythical Kazakhstan-Azerbaijani-Georgian-Turkish gas pipeline, production of shale gas, at last.

In Ukraine the officials at last found time to make that it was necessary to make from the very beginning - before beating the pots with Russia and to begin the gas wars. If Yushchenko didn’t begin it, so the gas contract for delivery on 50 dollars would act for some more years, which was signed 8 years ago. The continued efforts of Ukraine have risen the price ten times. And now they reached the calculation of losses from transit of the Russian gas as a result of start of the Nord Stream gas pipeline which connects Russia and Germany directly on a bottom of the Baltic Sea. Prime minister Azarov estimated the loss while at 15 %. Probably, it is from 3 billion annual payment for transit. Prime minister Azarov declared about it in interview to the German newspaper Handelsblatt. However, in the autumn the figure will be already 50-60 % (the second clue of a stream completely will work).

According to him, Moscow pays to Kiev “only a half of that, how much is a transit” (it is the lie and rough lie – it pays nearly 3 dollars). Besides, he called the situation as “absurd” when the Russian gas for Ukraine is more expensive twice, than for Germany (and it is the lie. Gas costs $452, 52 for Germany in April). Azarov also stated the offer that Russia, Ukraine and the European Union should (though we should nothing to somebody. Who wants – that agrees) to sign the tripartite gas contract for a period of 10 years. Thus, in his opinion, the parties will supervise the transit ways in common.

Before, Azarov declared that the gas-transport system (GTS) of Ukraine remains the most reliable and cheap transit way of transportation of the Russian gas to Europe. According to him, the construction of new Russian gas pipelines slightly will lower the profits of the Ukrainian gas-transport system. It is precisely. Won't lower so much. To a zero. Totally Southern and Northern streams are capable to transit to Europe at least 118 billion cubic meters and it is less than hundred already pumped through Ukraine long ago.

Following the results of the first four months of 2012 the transit of the Russian gas through Ukraine fell to 20, 18 % in comparison with the similar period of the last year. From January to April 32, 12 billion cubic meters of the Russian fuel were exported through the country, from which 30,8 billion - to countries of Western Europe. The transit falls because Russia redirects the transit in “Nord Stream” and the Belarusian gas-transport system.

Now the average cost of the Russian gas for Ukraine makes 416 dollars. In total Ukraine plans to buy 27 billion cubic meters of gas in Russia. It is necessary to allocate about 12 billion dollars for these purposes. Actually it is obliged to buy more – up to 40. Also will buy, there's nothing it can do especially. As the real needs of the country at level of 55 from which the own production covers 18-20 billion cubic meters.

Ukraine tries to achieve the next discount for gas from Moscow already more than a year, but negotiations didn't bring and won't bring the results. Though Kiev hopes for something and at all doesn't make the pumping of gas in gas storages in April and May (as did annually, preparing since spring for winter). Actually it is ridiculous to carry on negotiations, when there is no a subject for them. It is obvious what the parties want. One party wants to terminate the existing contract and to pay less. Other party wants to carry out the effective one. There is only problem that the current prices are signed already by Yanukovych, but not by “standing-lying" Julia. Two years ago he “achieved” a discount in 100 dollars in Kharkov and was happy. Now also carry out the own arrangements.

And wishing to receive cheaper, enter the Customs Union and Common Free Market Zone of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. There are no duties there and the price is lower in times. 164 dollars - as for Kazakhstan, so for Belarus. The rest is an internal affair of Ukraine. What more to be pleasant, let does it.

In the spring of 2012 Kiev began negotiations on gas purchases not from Russia. However, a word “began” is not absolutely true. Similar negotiations go constantly with different partners for nearly 10 years. Also it was repeatedly reported about unknown successes. Do you remember the fairy tales on oil supply from Venezuela? What it ended? With several ships from far America and a couple from Azerbaijan. Then the project silently died because of unprofitability. That was known initially. But it didn’t reach that in supply of gas – only conversations and intentions. They call Germany, Turkey and Austria among potential suppliers. Experts laugh, the people swear, and regionals wash and spend money on deadly conceived projects.

Only all these projects are announced for 2020-2030. It is better not to talk about how many all this costs and how feasible. Ukraine has no such billions and isn't expected. But it is very interesting that nobody in Europe down the Ukrainian visionaries on the earth and even signs (for the Ukrainian money, certainly) noncommittal contracts. As it was made recently by the Germans, having signed the contract without the indication of volumes of deliveries and without the price (actually the contract of intent) which caused the pig-delight at Yanukovych and Company and widely advertized in Ukraine. Also the contracts on geological exploration are concluded. Besides, for the Ukrainian money and in hope on light the day after tomorrow. Though there are the sad examples of similar investigation already. The contract signed by Yushchenko with the American company “Prikerchenskaya” was dissolved with scandal and without results, the money failed and now the company continues researches on that territories already in favor of Romania. Which Ukraine conceded this site of a shelf voluntarily. I emphasize – voluntarily. For the case examination in the European court (which Ukraine lost), the consent of the governments of both countries to the case examination and performance of judgments is necessary at first. Ukraine gave such consent.

It is abundantly clear what actually is covered behind all these plans and contracts, taking into account the foregoing, especially looking at real steps of the European Union and Russia in the gas sphere. For example:

“Gazprom” made the decision on construction expediency of two additional branches of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. One of these branches can reach Great Britain. It was declared by the chairman of the board of “Gazprom” Miller (RIA Novosti). If the first two branches (one works, the second will begin this autumn) drive 55 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, two additional will take the volume to 110. It is more than was pumped over ever by transit through Ukraine. Well, at such succession of events, the reverse deliveries are possible from Europe to Ukraine. It is logical - Russia stops transit in EU through the Ukrainian territory and Ukraine buys the Russian gas in the West and downloads it to itself in unique gas storages in total volume of 31 billion cubic meters in a reverse regime. It is cheaper bypassing, than directly. Especially, if to buy at second hand (logic of the Ukrainian authorities). And all are happy.

And if it is serious, the Ukrainian authorities compare two absolutely different prices since the time of Yushchenko. One is which Ukraine pays monthly AFTER supply of gas on a formula “take and pay”. The second is the price of spot platforms where the price can to be lower on a third, simply because the buyer will pay today for gas which will receive only in some months. A good way, but Ukraine has no money on it. Never.

Miller added that the structure of shareholders for this fourth (British) branch can change. Now “Gazprom” possesses 51 % of shares in the Nord Stream AG Company which is carrying out the laying and operation of “Nord Stream”. The German concerns BASF/Wintershall and E.ON Ruhrgas own on 15, 5 % of shares and the Dutch Gasunie and the French GDF - on 9 %.

It is easy to guess that all European shareholders will be interested not in the Ukrainian gas pipeline where they didn't put money. Namely, in filling and maximum load of “Nord” and then “South” streams.



REFERENCE. The first branch of “Nord Stream” was started in November, 2011. Its capacity makes 27 billion cubic meters of gas per year. On April 18, 2012 Nord Stream reported about the early completion of laying of the second gas pipeline. It is planned that supply of fuel on the second branch will begin in October of this year and then the capacity of “Nord Stream” will double and make 55 billion cubic meters per year.

Gazprom” declared about that the capacity of the gas pipeline can be increased twice in December of last year. Then Miller noted that the gas concern will begin the development of the feasibility study of the third and fourth branches of “Nord Stream”.

Great Britain is one of the leaders on gas production in Europe. However London is compelled to buy more and more fuel abroad in connection with exhaustion of the traditional fields in the North Sea and unsuccessful search of new one.