Wait for the news from Kirghizia ….

There are the changes in Kirghizia. The country has found the new president, the new prime minister is already appointed also. How the situation in republic changes? What can be expected? The known analyst and journalist Grigory Mikhaylov (Bishkek) has expressed on this theme under our request.

- The winner of presidential election in republic is known, but is it possible to say, that course for the future is chosen as well?

- No, it is impossible to say so. The course isn't chosen yet. Moreover, many and different promises are peculiar to the Kirghiz politics, but it doesn't mean that they will be executed. The politicians continue to maneuver. Let us suppose that if the elected president Almazbek Atambaev has declared that the American base should be deduced from republic territory, it doesn't mean that it will happen. I think that most likely the base will be left.
That is, the course isn't defined. And first of all that the country is at the crossroads as a whole …

- And already for long time enough!

- Yes, for long time. Actually the course wasn’t chosen in normal way from the moment of independence finding. There are many serious internal problems in the country now over which they work simply in a fire-fighting crew regime. And the strategic approach both wasn't and isn't present.

- And what is the difference between Almazbek Atambaev who has headed the republic and the time president Roza Otunbaeva who has put the power?

- The difference that Otunbaeva was the big wig as a matter of fact. She was in the status of the English queen, as it is possible to say: she ruled, but didn't dispose. She had little authority; she has been compelled to manoeuvre between various groupings to keep something at least. Atambaev is more ambitious and it is very important that he is a man: this means much in the East. He is capable to control a situation, to get the opponents under and to achieve much.
Otunbaeva was, really, the compromise figure. Also she was necessary only for the certain period of time… She was directed towards the USA more and Atambaev can already choose more independent course and can even ignore any political groups. He has the party and there are allies in other parties. He has quite good financial resources, because he is the businessman. He could collect a quite good command during elections and the Russian PR managers worked on him. In general, the new president of Kirghizia has shown certain level of capacity and now conducts a policy on strengthening of the positions, removing the competitors aside.

- Is it possible to say, that Moscow didn't put openly on somebody on the presidential elections?

- Yes, it is so. If Moscow starts to put openly on someone, so it is seen in programs on the Russian state channels very well. Suddenly they begin to show someone often and in different occasions … And now there is the impression that the theme of the Kirghiz elections was simply ignored. This time, probably, Russia has decided to act wisely: not to put all eggs in one basket. Both Atambaev and some of his competitors have got the support and approval in Moscow...

- And is the anti-Russian policy in republic? If to formulate directly, without any equivoques.

- I will say so: there are people, who oriented on the support of Europe and America. There is a weight of the non-governmental structures supported by the State Department of the USA and its structures. Some thousand of the scientific production associations are in the five-million country, at least, 500 of them operate very actively. But we won't find the openly anti-Russian among them.
The question is why? Because from 500 to 700 thousand Kirghiz work in Russia. They bring the earned money home and double thereby the gross product. And these people feed two-three-four more relatives. That is, it turns out that the citizens of Kirghizia working in Russia feed about half of population of the country. Thanks to this, the people can buy houses, cars, even simply to escape for hunger. I speak about hunger not for effect - about 20 % of the population in Kirghizia goes hungry according to the World Food Organization.
The pro-Russian moods here are stronger, than in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The Russian influence and respect for Russia have remained in Kirghizia from the Soviet period. But this influence gradually decreases, and, it means, the role of Russia will fall too. The relevant Russian structures practically don't work with the young generation of Kirgizstan. They practically don’t work – the rate still becomes on the senior generation. The consequences of such approach are quite obvious.

- In conclusion I would like to ask a question on prospects of the development of the political situation in republic. It is possible to say easier: will be silent in the country unlike the time of the big shocks?

- Now it is very difficult to say what will occur. The situation is changeable very much. But, seemingly, that in the near future it will be really silent and the meetings and protests can begin again with the beginning of spring as it has happened. In reality it is very difficult to put things in order. We have a terrorism threat, separatism threat; the situation is uneasy in the religious plan too. There are complexities in economy – the default threat exists and it is not a secret.

Therefore, I believe that it won't be absolutely quiet in the near future. So, you can wait for the news about the events in Kirghizia. It is possible not about revolution, but abo