What China becomes in 20 years?

The expert of the Moscow school of political researches, the chief executive of the Chinese center of research of foreign social and philosophical theories of Hairong Lai, having addressing to the listeners of school, has told about the present of China and that waits for our neighbor in the near future:

Whether a multi-party system will be in China?

Whether the new political parties appear in China is one of the key questions which the Chineses should answer within the next three decades. What occurs now? There is a mechanism of collective decision-making in communist party. The decisions are accepted now at level of standing committee of the Political bureau. It is different people, who have different careers; they differently talk to a society. And these people introduce the various points of view in decision-making process. We will see whether it is enough or not…

The Chinese Communist Party has developed the mechanism of rotation of these positions so that nobody stayed too long in this structure of more than 10 years. The new group will come in the decade and participate in decision-making at the highest level. The pluralism grows in the Chinese society and partially it is just reflected in the collective leadership fact.

While we don't have the general elections for this model, but we try to use other means, that this regular replacement has been connected, maybe, with politics change to adapt to a new situation which develops in China. And it changes very quickly – many things have occurred for 10 years…

We don't know, whether there will be any new institutes for acceptance of collective decisions, but the society becomes more pluralistic and various – and it seems to me that the political management understands it. And it is very important!

China won't be the leader for more 100 years …

I understand that China looks awful from the outside: economic and military power accrues. But if you appear in China now, you won't have a sensation for one minute that the XXI century is the Chinese century. At all isn't present! The income per one person is very low and the gross national product per capita too: it makes 3000 dollars per the person and in Germany, for example, 30000 dollars … And in Singapore it is 20 times more … The education and public health services in China are poor enough, the infrastructure is not so good. It is better than in India, but it is not enough. We have a lot of problems …

And who in China can assume, that China comes out on top?! Two authors, namely the experts of defence and economy, have written that China won't catch up with the USA within 30 years. Any Chinese doesn't think that Europe rots. The USA and Europe, of course, have difficulties, but they are at all! They say that Japan has lost 20 years, but unless it so? One percent of growth in Japan, of course, is less, than 11 in China, but the base is high!
The world can look at China as on the big country, but the Chineses so don't think. Perhaps, the time has come to think of a choice: authoritative China with growing military and economic power is one and another – growing economy and military force on the basis of liberal democracy. China should make this choice during 10-20 years: whether it wants to be threat to an external world or the friend?

China is not the leader in the world. It won't be for hundred years. And the economic growth after all won't proceed eternally too, as it happened with Japan in 90th years.

The economy is strong not by the state

The society demands more freedom, so it is. It becomes more and more active, for example, in disclosing of corruption, infringements of human rights. And this activity puts pressure upon political system. But the economic development of China occurs not because the state is strong, but because the state ceases to interfere with economy: doesn't regulate the pricing, isn't engaged in enterprise activity. In 1978 the state sector put 99, 1 % of all sum, in 1997 – 75 % and in 2006 – already 35 %! Look, what the dynamics is! That is, the Chinese economic growth explains not by the strong state, but that the state leaves aside from economic activities. Just the public sector is inefficient in the Chinese economy …

The demography defines a policy

There are regional distinctions in the country, but the worst phase of this phenomenon China has already passed in 80-90th years of last century. Now the work and land cost grows in the east and the central and the western China rise in economic sense. The central government spends certain financial and tax policy so that it was favourable to work in the western part. Therefore the distinction between rich and poor regions will be erased to a comfortable indicator. I think that it will occur within 10-20 years.

The main problem of China is not a problem of rich and poor regions, but a problem of poor and rich people. The rupture grows and it will decrease hardly probable.

As to the demographic changes, so the debate on internal policy is conducted within three years; many officials suggest it to change. If we can't allow to have the pension system owing to the current trends, so it will mean that we can't have cheap labor any more. And, it means, labor-consuming branches of the Chinese economy won't be viable most likely. And it will be the big problem!

There is a policy: one child in a family. However, there will be a process of refusal of such policy. It already occurs in four-five provinces. If one of the parents is from a family where there was an only child, such family is authorized to have two children. Therefore, in three-five years already any pair will acquire the right to have two children. It is a problem and it, most likely, can lead to political changes.

China and Russia give an example

China and Russia are now friendly located to each other. In China nobody is afraid that Russia can intrude … This is a great achievement that China and Russia, at last, have solved the disputes on frontier territories. Believe me, it was not easy. China has disputes concerning the territories with India, South Korea, Vietnam, with Japan because of a tiny island …. And the extent of border is more than 2000 kilometers with Russia, but we could finish successfully the disputes which were so long. I think that there is no parallel in the history when two countries could solve such problem!

We have turned the page of history and now profit from our decision.
Let's go forward!