What has actually occurred on Fukushima?

The known researcher and the theorist of a fantasy and an alternative history, the sociologist and the military historian, the author of such sensational books as «tells the game “Self-instruction manual on a world chessboard” and “New cards of the future or Anti-Rand” Sergey Pereslegin tells.

He is known and as the participant of the Leningrad seminar of Boris Strugatsky, the compiler, editor, the author of comments of books of a series “Military and historical library”. Now he is the head of research groups “Future Designing”, “Saint-Petersburg School Staging”. Many forecasts made by him concerning the global development of the world have come true.

Recently representing the new book “Wild cards of the future” Sergey Pereslegin has stated an estimation to latest developments which excite if not everyone but many. From the kind permission of the historian we acquaint you with his reflections.

The first theme is what has actually occurred on Fukushima?

- On March, 11 there was an earthquake around the Japanese islands. But whether there was this earthquake really strong? Our mass-media persistently confuse the different characteristics of earthquakes and even manage to result them together, therefore the people have absolutely erroneous representation that occurs. There are two characteristics of earthquakes. One of them is magnitude which characterizes its general energy. And according to magnitude it was very strong earthquake, probably, the fourth or the fifth for all the history of supervision. But absolutely another characteristic is the force of earthquake which depends on distance, epicenter, ground condition and a lot of other factors. In this respect the earthquake was strong too but not excessive. Its magnitude was equal to 8 that is close to a limit because it doesn’t take place more than 8, 5 and the force, by different estimations, has made 9-9,5 points but there are also much stronger earthquakes at 11-12 points. Therefore, there is a certain share of true when they assert that it was the earthquake stroke of improbable force but in that place where there was a station, there wasn’t something improbably terrible. Almost all Japanese stations have easily enough stood this stroke of elements.

What happens particularly on Fukushima? As very tactless Koreans were expressed, it was impossible to build a station on 8 points in a zone where possibility of 10-points earthquakes is quite probable. According to seismicity, this zone actually concerns 11 points. But the station constructed 40 years ago calculated on 8 points, has perfectly sustained earthquake and hasn't received any damages!
Also, the Koreans have marked, that it is wrong to build a station near the water in a dangerous zone concerning a tsunami. It is simply forbidden according to the Russian laws. How it is authorized according to the Japanese laws is other question … Considering that the district rises upwards, so it wouldn't make any problems to take away the station from any possible wave of a tsunami. But the Japanese have put it directly on a coastal line! It is not clear why. And besides, it is impossible to build stations without passive system of safety. There were no such systems 40 years ago but then all stations have been obliged to establish such systems because it is not too expensive. The passive system of safety represents the big tank with water which falls on the reactor case, heats up, condensed and again falls. Technically it isn't difficult. For example, it was in Chernobyl but simply it has been accurately disconnected before experiment …

But it doesn't happen something terrible in spite of all that. There was an earthquake, as well as it is necessary, the system of emergency protection went off, the control rods have fallen and chain reaction has stopped. But there is one important thing – the cleavage products collect in any working station in slugs. And if a station work is stopped and the chain reaction is ceased, so the division process proceeds all the same. This is the usual occurrence. Therefore even when the station is muffled, the cooling system should work.

It also worked but the matter is that the Japanese, who managed to design station on 8 points, have put on the transmission line it on estimated on 6 points! And as a result of earthquake, the supply of electricity on station has completely stopped. But there was nothing terrible even in it. As the station has been designed by the Americans and the reactor was of 70th years of output which the Japanese have only collected. The station has been designed so that it could stand twenty-four hours without cooling absolutely easily. But for these twenty-four hours it was necessary to give the electric power to a station at any cost. If it happens in Russia, so someone would get the cable, would find something that will give the electric power and would start! The twenty-four hours is much time enough. According to technical regulations, each station has the generators which should give the energy in a similar case. So the established facts come to an end and we can assume only that has occurred actually.

The official Japanese version is that the diesel engines-generators have failed because of a tsunami wave. There are people who trust this version and there are people who don't trust absolutely because the diesel-generators of last level of protection are under construction so that to maintain a direct hit and a tsunami and a meteorite. When such things are projected, it is necessarily to assume that everything can be destroyed, including the reactor case but the diesel-generator should remain even among the fragments and work. The Japanese assert that the tsunami has put them out of action. If it so, it is necessary for General Electric to sue against engineers and they have to pay all 29 billions of losses with percent. But most likely actually all was much easier – the Japanese simply haven't checked up these generators for all time of existence of station and when it was necessary to start them, it was found out that the greasing has frozen, the fuel disappeared and there are no people who know how all it quickly to liquidate and force the generator to work … Anyway, the generators haven't been started and they couldn’t give the electric power on station for twenty-four hours.
All becomes bad enough from this moment but hasn't occurred something terrible yet. It was possible simply to start to cool quickly the case of the reactor with water, then it would leave out of work and the radioactive accident wouldn't occur. But then it would be necessary to move the water submitting technics from all ends of prefecture and the Japanese have tried to manage by unique fire-engine which they have at station. They could water the reactor with a spoon with the same success! And all is clear further – the warming up of reactor and alloying have begun, hit of elements of radioactive disintegration in cooling liquid has begun, water has boiled. That we name the radioactive leaks on Fukushima is simply constant emission of water sated with the products of radioactive disintegration in atmosphere.

There are three versions of an event. The first official version: dreadful horror, improbable act of nature, it was impossible to make something and the Japanese have made everything that they could.
The most part of community adhere to the second version – the total failure of the Japanese engineering and control system. It is known for a long time that Japan has big problems with engineering. For example, last summer they have managed to drop a pig in weight of 300 kg on one reactor, have rumpled its case, and, probably, have stopped it for a long time. And according the official version, the mechanism moving rods which, actually, is calculated on large-tonnage cargoes, instead of some 300 kg has ostensibly broken! Most likely, the engineer has simply pressed the button at the wrong time which has disconnected the electromagnets.

Practically the same happens on Fukushima according to the majority: the engineers couldn't solve a problem, have started to address to managers but not all works on command "on top", besides the communication because worked nasty of earthquake. All decisions were accepted with delay and because of it the situation gradually worsened … This is the opinion of the people well knowing a situation but not knowing Japan.

The third version is the following: What the citizens of Japan lose from this accident? The reactor, which is 40 years and which should be taken out of service all the same in the near future, 29 billions which to pay not by them but by company- owner and there are the quantity of small troubles connected with public opinion …

The reactor stands near the water and accordingly, all goes down in ocean and is carried away far from Japan. What do they win? Under such awful accident it is possible to refuse unnecessary restrictions at once. And Japan has already declared that it won't carry out the Kiotsky report. There is one more important thing – Japan basically can't refuse nuclear energy unlike Europe. This question isn't discussed at all there.

Now it is possible to tell precisely that the reactors of old type have shown the unreliability and it is necessary to build absolutely other reactors. Japan which has dropped out of nuclear race last year can return now to it because in today's conditions it is easily possible to spend through any parliament that they need the reactors of new type because the old have shown the unreliability and danger. The alternative position speaks about the following – if the Japanese have coped with a situation, so would show what remarkable engineering in Japan and if isn't, so that appears the possibility to reconstruct all nuclear industry of the country.

What will be further? Two reactors of four already never to restore and nobody will restore also the others in connection with the developed public opinion. The station will take out of service, will construct a sarcophagus, play on nerves at the whole world a little more, telling, how everything blows up there. There were the reactors of case type and it is necessary to try for a long time to destroy them so that as in Chernobyl the uranium with graphite rolled in the street. There are no such engineers who could normally destroy them. Therefore it won't occur something especially terrible.

Though there is one more very important moment – the Japanese go in gauze bandages all the time – at one moment they are afraid of pork flu, at another any epidemic … They go precisely so now but the people have bought up the dosimeters in the Far East. And the station is separated by the big island Hokkaido from Sakhalin, from Vladivostok –by the Japanese Alps and sea of Japan. The Ministry of Emergency Measures tried to explain for many times that there are no scenarios at which the deposits can get from there to Vladivostok, the people don’t listen simply. Even the most adverse variant, namely a wind can't transfer the deposits there! But it is somehow explainable and it is possible to doubt the intelligence of people when the devices at the price of 500 euro buy up in Germany at failure on Fukushima. If theoretically the radiation comes to Germany from Japan, it will already mean the world end when the probability to survive approximately will be equal both with a dosimeter and without.

By the way, the Japanese failure has crossed out the nuclear programs of Sweden, Switzerland, has sharply complicated a situation in Germany, Great Britain. In this sense, Fukushima in Japan is a serious failure and Fukushima in Europe is a dreadful accident.