What threatens the national security of Kazakhstan?

The social fund “The centre of the social and political researches “Strategy” which is headed by sociologist Gulmira Ileuova actively works in Kazakhstan since June, 2001. Quite recently the fund conducted the research “The analysis of threats of national security of the Republic of Kazakhstan on medium-term outlook” which caused a great interest in the republic.

At our request Gulmira Ileuova not only presented this research, but also told about “The centre of the social and political researches “Strategy”:

- We are the sociological organization, i.e. first of all we conduct the sociological researches with the use of various quantitative and qualitative techniques. Themes are all range which can be considered through a sociology prism – social and social and economic problems, everything that is carried to domestic policy (political moods and preferences, religious subject, electoral measurements, etc.).

Besides, one more of the directions of our work are the preparation of analytical materials (accounts, reviews, reports) on different subjects, including on the basis of the closed expert discussions carried out by us.

- What kind of experts work in the Fund?

- The professional sociologists, i.e. the people having the vocational education work in our Fund generally. I am the Candidate of Sociological Sciences. We have the prevalent group of adherents. By the way, there are also the political scientists in the staff. And in case of need we involve also other experts on various projects– economists, marketeers, specialists in international law or affairs.

- How the society, politicians react to your researches?

- As a whole, in Kazakhstan the level of interest to sociological researches, in my opinion, is insufficiently high, in any case, you can meet seldom the quoting of researches results in mass media. But it can be connected that the researches are carried out insufficiently or they often have the closed character.

However I am satisfied with the interest to researches of our organization: I see them in publications in mass media. Plus to that, the staff of Fund and I rather often are attracted by the journalists as the experts of preparation of the corresponding materials. As for government bodies, we participate in the projects which are carried out by the state, quite actively. We carry out some big projects in a year - for the separate ministries and departments and for administrations of regions. What is the level of relevance of our researches results in their administrative practice? It is difficult to say, but, in any case, we work for some clients annually during some years running and I hope, the effect is.

THE THREATS ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN IN MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK

Social fund “Centre of the social and political researches “Strategy”

EXTERNAL THREATS

New (non-traditional) security threats

Globalization increased the efficiency of non-governmental organizations. And the information revolution led to growth of number and strengthening of influence of network structures. The international crime is presented today generally by network structures, in fight with which the state institutes founded on the principles of hierarchy often lose.

Transnational criminal groups have today almost unlimited opportunities for bribery of civil servants and recruitment of supporters. While they are used only in insignificant degree, but if necessary the extent of impact on the state and its structure can sharply increase, up to the armed resistance organization to the authorities and attempts of overthrow of the government.

Drug traffic. According to the experts the UN, about 20% of the Afghan opiates goes on the world markets through the borders with Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (and then through Kazakhstan).

Thus Kazakhstan, as well as other countries of Central Asia, in recent years turned from the transit territory through which the drugs from Afghanistan were transported to Europe, in steadily growing market for sale of the Afghan drugs.

Category of threat: the constant, with very high extent of updating, remains a tendency to growth, including explosive, under the influence of external factors.

Illegal migration poses serious threat of public and economic stability of Kazakhstan, turning into a factor of complication of a criminogenic situation.

Illegal migrants from the Central Asia countries often are the part of the network structures occupied with illegal traffic in arms, people and drug traffic. In the conditions of transparency of borders the full overlapping of channels of illegal migration is represented impossible.

Category of threat: the constant, with seasonally changing intensity, transformation in risk of emergence in the territory of Kazakhstan of refugee camps and the beginning of process of “livanization” with the control loss over part of the territory of the country is possible.

Human traffic (slave trade). It is closely connected with illegal migration as the same transport corridors are often used. In process of growth of the income of the criminal groups occupied with a slave trade, the extent of decomposing impact on the state structures grows, including the law enforcement agencies without which the direct assistance of this business can't exist.
Category of threat: the constant, with a tendency to growth, thus high degree of reserve (latency) complicates both a threat assessment and work on its decrease.

International terrorism. It showed the possibility of commission of terrorism acts in any countries of the world. Though the international terrorist groups while have no opportunities for simultaneous work in all countries, threat of terrorism acts is used by them rather effectively, in particular, for impact on public opinion of the participating countries of ISAF in Afghanistan in favour of withdrawal of the armies from this country under the threat of commission of terrorism acts.

Category of threat: not shown yet, but potentially with high extent of destabilizing impact on society of traditional type with undeveloped civil institutes.

Traffic in arms. Today has no development prospects as the separate direction of criminal business in Kazakhstan, however at a combination of experience of cross-border criminal groups in other countries with the debugged channels on transportation of people, drugs and other illegal freights in Kazakhstan, has no serious barriers to emergence and development.

Category of threat: not shown yet, but fast updating in case of request for small arms and light weapons is possible.

Threat of the regional conflicts

Though Kazakhstan has no serious problems and the conflicts at regional level within the system of the interstate relations, the most part of external threats to national interests has regional character. Experience of interaction of the countries of Central Asia in the solution of ecological problems (Aral), economic (creation of a common market) or military-political (CICA support) showed that the countries of Central Asia are rather ready to obey friendly to “force centre” Moscow than to cooperate on an equal basis with each other.

The probability is great that the situation will change only in the direction of change of “big brother” and soon any regional conflicts of interests in Central Asia will be solved only after China will be connected to them as interested party having sufficient resources for construction of automobile and the railroads, power plants and pipelines. Certainly, proposed solutions will proceed from national interests of the People's Republic of China, but they will be supported by the region countries simply because even the bad solution will appear (or will seem) better, than any.

Today the most part of threats of regional character masks under the cooperation programs within various regional structures.

Hydro-electric dependence on neighbouring countries in many respects connected with specifics of use of the cross-border rivers therefore it can't be completely overcome at the expense of unilateral measures (construction of water-engineering systems, self-sufficiency by the electric power and gas of dependent territories).

Its consequences cause serious damage both economic, and ecological character. Shallowing and pollution of Irtysh is an example of destructive impact on economy, ecology and human health.

Power dependence turns into growth of economic and ecological costs for creation of infrastructure of much less effective, than that which would act in the conditions of regional cooperation.
Category of threat: the constant, with very high extent of updating, tends to growth.

Instability of political regimes in neighbouring states and the related possibility of social shocks up to civil war. The probability of the last is rather insignificant, but its destructive influence will be huge.

Growth of a mutual distrust in the relations between the region states, interfering implementation of joint economic projects and prevention of the general risks and threats can become a direct consequence of instability of regimes.

Category threat: not shown, being reflected in stability of all Eurasian system of safety, it is connected with interests of many centres of force.

The interstate conflicts on perimeter of the Kazakhstan borders can be connected as with strain of relations between neighbouring states (Uzbekistan – Tajikistan) and the conflict with the participation of one of great powers (Iran - the USA, Afghanistan – the countries of the block of NATO).

Influence on Kazakhstan is more probable mediated, through explosive updating of threats of emergence of the market of the weapon, refugee camps, etc.

Category of threat: not shown, with high level of probability of “domino effect”.

Separatist movements in neighbouring states. Real danger is constituted only by possibility of appearance of the Uigur separatists in SUAR. Attempt to use of cross-border criminal groups can be connected with it for creation in Kazakhstan bases of supply of fighters in SUAR People's Republic of China that will entail updating of a number of not shown risks.

Category of threat: not shown, hardly predicted, the assessment is complicated in connection with closeness of process.

Emergence of steady Chinese diaspora in Kazakhstan looks in medium-term outlook almost inevitable after emergence of “magnet” in the form of CNPC and other large Chinese companies. Experience of other countries says that Chinese still didn't leave somewhere, even in case of the negative attitude towards them from indigenous people (Indonesia).

At the same time the Chinese diasporas have the lowest conflict potential compared with other ethnic groups and the direct dependence between the sizes of diaspora and level of the Chinese influence (the Southeast Asian country– Burma, Thailand, Kampuchea) isn't obvious.

Category of threat: not shown, not the quite obvious.

Military-political safety

Kazakhstan in ensuring of military-political safety can rely today with big success on “the soft force” and economic expansion, especially in relation to neighbours in Central Asia.

Field narrowing for a cabal. Participation in military-political blocks where Russia and China dominate, bears in itself the threat of loss of opportunity to pursue multi-vector policy, field narrowing for maneuver. However today there is no alternative to participation in ODKB and SCO as the instruments of ensuring of regional security.

Category of the conflict: short-term, not shown.

Decrease in efficiency of bodies of protection of state safety (all types).

As the part of system of a state administration, the bodies of a state security and law and order experience on itself the action of the general for all system of processes, and in more expressed, concentrated look. In the conditions of falling of efficiency and progressing self-discredit of a state machinery, there is a distortion of motivation of employees of security service that leads to weakening of professional selection and, respectively, aggravates a tendency of decrease in professional competence. In these conditions the retaliatory function of data of bodies objectively necessary in the preventive plan was transformed to the effective corruption tool; interdepartmental “wars” became aggravated and gained nature of fight for access to nonfunctional control levers in political and economic interests of intra elite groups of influence.

Moreover, experiencing the influence of clan interests, characteristic for all system of the state administration, the created structure of security service and law and order isn't able to realize effectively the localization of external and internal risks and threats on early approaches, as the most effective measure for protection of state safety.

Category of threat: constant.

THREATS IN THE INTERNAL POLITICAL SPHERE

Threats of public administration crisis

They are the main for the considered period. In the base these risks are generated by incomplete process of the adaptation of political institutes to requirements and problems of economic and social development.

The main threats are the following.

Government inefficiency. Direct external expression of this inefficiency today are non-performance of state programs, inefficient use of the budgetary resources, the food inflation, increasing threat of tariffs increase, decrease in a standard of living of considerable part of the population.

All this takes place under objectively favourable conditions and a high international environment for goods of the Kazakhstan export, first of all hydrocarbons.

These processes are developed against remaining narrowness of the national market which interferes with creation of hi-tech large productions. As a result, noncompetitive product cost at a high transport component in costs of production, universal monopolism and lack of the real competition, pressure of the western, Chinese and Russian production.

Government corruption. It generates “corruption tax on economy” which accrues from top to down reaching by an assessment of experts more than 150 billion tenge. Laying down by the additional burden at a size of the prices, credits, payments, corruption in economic sense interferes with formation and development of market institutes in their original sense as undermines the competitiveness of agents of the market by noneconomic means. Law enforcement agencies, courts, customs, and other bodies are the most corrupted.

Decrease in level of competence and political loyalty of civil servants. As the main form of manifestation acts not only endured crisis, but also insufficiently high level of use of administrative opportunities. The real reasons are: a) fight of clans in the top management; b) insufficient efficiency of personnel policy at level as heads and performers; c) absence or insufficiency of material and career incentives for civil servants at all levels; d) closeness of process of adoption of personnel and administrative decisions for alternative opinions.

The Bolashak program didn't lead so far to emergence of new generation of managers on a number of the objective reasons. It is imparted by practice of the developed countries (especially the West) orientation to personal success, instead of efficiency of governing body; use of a conceptual framework and economic practice of the developed countries of the West; as a whole westernized orientation in respect of moral and political values. Thereby, “Bolashak” became the way of realization not so much to the state need for effective managers, as a form of realization of personal interests of participants of this program (with presence of an element of corruption at the mechanism of the program).

Category of threat: constant and situational at the same time.

Political extremism

The risk of manifestation of political extremism in the country is connected with growing political ambitions of intra elite groups and features of an internal political situation. The following circumstances are the preconditions for this:

Growth of level of stratification of the population on a social, ethnic and religious sign. As the world practice shows, these contradictions serve as favourable circumstances for extremism. In Kazakhstan already now the processes of social differentiation reached the critical level (if ten years ago the ratio of the minimum and maximum income of extreme, the so-called decile groups of the population (Gini coefficient) made 1 to 4, today – 1 to 10). As a result of ideological separation, the general moral decline and suspense of social problems, Kazakhstan society becomes vulnerable before negative impacts from the groups interested in destabilization.

Low efficiency of activity of security service of the country, their merging with criminal structures. As the experiment of previous years shows, the structures urged to ensure the safety of the country, are capable to work in interests of certain persons or groups, to the detriment of the state.

Arbitrariness and impunity of the highest bureaucracy. The developed political situation gives a free hand to the highest authorities, doing their powers boundless within the country. This circumstance is a constant source of internal political threat as the probability of emergence of the hidden opposition “close by” is high.

Eventually the threat of political extremism will accrue as the existing political system doesn't allow to conduct legitimate race for power.

Category of threat: constant, with very high extent of updating on the near-term outlook

Use of a religious factor in political goals. The phenomenon of politicization of religiousness coincided in Kazakhstan on time with revival of religious faiths and religious life as a whole. The purposeful policy of the state which proceeded from underestimation of relevance of this risk in comparison with problems of strengthening of the state identity was a driving impulse thus in many respects.

Now the development of faiths under the influence of external and internal factors approached to a boundary behind which the risk of loss of controllability by this process and emergence of threat of formation of alternative structures of the power, with own mechanisms of mobilization was designated. Thus the major factors are:

- lack of control over ideological (i.e. political) content of religious activity owing to an arrangement of the centres of the main religions outside the country;

- complication of a context of the ethnoconfessional relations with accumulation of potential of a protest behaviour and conflict;

- the found insufficiency of professionalism in the management of Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kyrgyzstan (SAMK) and political loyalty in activity of a number of new currents and sects;

- communication between the extent of religions activization and possibility of external impact on their development in connection with a problem of the international terrorism;

- prospect bows of nationalist opposition with the politicize religious trends;

- probability of use of separate religious groups by elite.

Category of threat: for all considered period if the necessary measures wouldn’t be taken.

New sounding of identity problems. The accelerated passing of transfer stage by Kazakhstan of the part of the western democratic institutes on the national ground sharply actualize the universal for developing countries a phenomenon of search and revival of own identity (in terms of S. Huntington – “Indigenization in the second generation”). It is characterized by paradox of transformation of the western democratic institutes in means of fight against the western cultural influence. As a rule, it is observed in the second generation of the leaders who are coming in change of the generation with the western education and it is embodied mainly in the average class.

This phenomenon not only coincides in historical time of the nation with religion revival as a new point of support of individuals and social groups in quickly changing world, but also sharply amplifies.

In the conditions of Kazakhstan there is all complex of problems of not only modern “collisions of civilizations”, but also left by previous colonial and totalitarian periods. So far it is counterbalanced first of all by unconditional authority of a figure of the leader of the country.

This risk means that the institute of the president faces a problem of neutralization of the additional potential threat generated by his own successes in consolidation of cultural and religious bases of the Kazakhstan statehood. The task becomes complicated by that circumstance that egoistically motivated elite didn't realize this threat while the protest against present generation of heads ripens on absolutely new basis.

Category of threat: the constant which is going beyond the period, at the same time giving in to adjustment in situational measurement.
THREATS IN THE ECONOMIC SPHERE

Inefficiency of economic institutes of management

Indistinctness of economic strategy is a consequence of preparation of strategic decisions in a narrow circle, without preliminary discussion neither at expert level, nor within administrative or enterprise elite. The formal consent with these decisions, accompanied by their actual sabotage becomes the result.

In the conditions of full integration of economy of Kazakhstan in the world markets it means the submission of natural, resource, intellectual opportunities of our country to interests of multinational corporations.

Category of threat: completely shown, masked by high prices of oil and metals in the world markets

Falling of the budgetary discipline. It became the universal phenomenon which is constantly fixed by the Audit Committee, the Ministry of Finance, Parliament. The main reason is decrease in control from government bodies in the centre and on the places, fed by growth of the budgetary opportunities. The psychology of the budgetary nihilism was created at the heart of which there is the representation that in the republic the money is more than its economy can digest. Since the Government and to regional akim, it was approved the indulgent relation to the facts of not development of budgetary funds and their wasting (inappropriate use). Besides that such practice was one of the additional sources of inflation, at the same time it allowed the corruption to turn into one of the main problems of Kazakhstan (violation of the law about purchases, practice of in advance predetermined tenders, weakness of the control and auditing device in local links of a state administration).

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Easing or lack of control over implementation of the state and governmental programs. Now tens programs with the corresponding financing are realized the performance results of which nobody control. Last examples: the space program is failed, the program of biofuel is stopped, the Clear Drinking Water program doesn't give in to check owing to its extent in time and separation of performers, Strategy of industrial and innovative development receives inconsistent estimates at official level, the program of 12-year school education is transferred, etc. Consequence is squandering of public funds. Tolerant in the period of a high environment, it threatens with social and economic instability in the period of the following wave of crisis.

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Rise in prices and tariffs. Need of increase of tariffs is dictated by a condition of life support systems of the population and economy. Rise in prices for food is the reflection of objective weakness of domestic agriculture and a world tendency of an agflation.

However the government never before didn't act with the developed, adapted for perception of the population, forecast of economic opportunities of the country which are capable to counterbalance tariff and price expenses for a general population in short-term and medium-term outlook.

Category of threat: at least, the forthcoming 2 years.

Maintenance of existence of “shadow economy”. By various estimates, it makes from 50 to 70 percent of legal economy.

Category of threat: constant.

The crisis phenomena in agriculture

They break up to some groups, each of which separately or in aggregate can cause the negative effect in society, with the corresponding political consequences for a regime.

Generated by processes of natural degradation. Here it is necessary to carry a condition of land fund of the country in which irreversible (at present level of managing) changes are gathered:

- salinity of soils as a result of a monoculture of cotton and rice, a lack of moisture, a condition of irrigating and drainage systems, an agrotechnics in regions of South-Kazakhstan Region and Kyzylordinsky area;

- exhaustion of an arable layer in areas of risky agriculture: Aktyubinsk, Ural, Karaganda, East-Kazakhstan Region (Semipalatinsk) and other areas;

- decrease in water content in the basin of the Syr Darya owing to cyclic climate changes;

- the lands which were in coverage of proving grounds (to 6% of the territory).

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Caused by a condition of the social sphere, a living environment. It is, first of all, the general conditions which have sharply worsened in recent years for accommodation, decline of the social sphere, being accompanied depopulation of the whole areas (Aral's region, the southern regions of the West Kazakhstan and Aktyubinsk areas), the former Semipalatinsk range.

They are characterized by the low density of objects of the welfare sphere (education, health care, culture, preschool institutions) and, on the contrary, by the increased percent living below the poverty line, self-occupied, receiving the address social help.

As a whole in the country the level of the income of inhabitants of rural areas is 30% lower than citizens.

Almost third part of the population is self-entertaining. The main part is the villagers who represent the “postponed” problem as aren't covered by system of social insurance, at the same time dropping out of official statistics and making considerable part of “shadow” economy.

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Consequences of a present condition of agricultural production and technologies in the country. It is a monoculture (cotton and rice in the south, wheat in the north), low level of an agrotechnics, selection, seed farming in plant growing. It is the low technological level of a forage production and processing in meat and dairy industry, practical absence of the last near a number of the regional centres, non-performance of tasks of an agrofood programme regarding the increase of breed and efficiency of cattle and a bird through the Ministry of Agriculture. Shortage or lack of opportunities of processing of rawhide, wool, invigoration of dairy cattle (brucellosis) is connected with it, etc. Low level of the development of veterinary service.
Category of threat: for all considered period.

Effects of participation of Kazakhstan in the international division of labour. Dependence on import of the main food from abroad was created. According to Council of association of customs brokers of the Republic of Kazakhstan, today to Kazakhstan about 20% of beef, 60% of fish, to 30% of dairy products, 80% of cheese, 50% of sunflower oil, to 50% of vegetables and fruit, 40% of potatoes are delivered in the country. At approximate equality of volumes of food import (1, 3 billion dollars) and export (1,6 billion dollars), the Kazakhstan export in 99% consists of grain and a flour.

The main part of producers (first of all, the wheat grains) is uncontrollable to government bodies regarding the production distribution owing to boundary situation with Russia, China, Uzbekistan. Dependence of akims from regional producers, land owners and owners of rural economic infrastructure (elevators, mills, points of a face of cattle and grain processing) forces them to act as a contracting party instead of the coordinator of actions necessary for the state.

Threat of prices rise for food is a constant factor: a) as compensation to producers for power support at especially critical moments, b) as a projection of problems of sale in the domestic market and production of the world market.

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Connected with prospect of the forthcoming accession to WTO. These risks bear in itself the threat, first of all, in connection with decrease in level of state support of agricultural producers of Kazakhstan (the price of fuels and lubricants, veterinary science and protection of plants, support of exporters, etc.) and decrease in level of the customs duties on production of member countries of the WTO.

Form of manifestation of this risk is generally political, as speculation of an agar lobby in parliament and the government on problems of the domestic agricultural producer. Thus a latifundizm is invariable in the land relations, lack of real cooperation of small producers, corruption squandering concerning funds allocated by the state on various industry programs.

Category of threat: from the moment of accession to WTO (2014)

Threat of deepening of regional disproportions

They are the derivative of a number of circumstances: distributions of productions during the Soviet period, existence/lack of hydrocarbons and minerals in the respective territories, quantities and qualities of the land areas and the population living on them, climatic conditions, level of representation in the power and the corresponding budgetary opportunities.

1. Differentiation of regions of Kazakhstan on level of economic development goes in several directions.

2. South Kazakhstan's fixing (Shymkent, Taraz, Kyzylorda) as the subsidized region with the greatest level of growth of the population and an increasing agrarian overpopulation, with all consequences for the republican budget and consciousness of the nation.

The processes of ethnodemographic changes connected with it mean fixing of title ethnos as absolutely prevailing quantitatively, but having lower level of quality of life as a whole.

Hence, the generating of the negative ethnoconfessional and social and cultural impulses influencing an internal political situation.

3. Strengthening of areas -donors, first of all of the Western Kazakhstan as the main productive region. One inhabitant of the Aktyubinsk area makes approximately in 7 times bigger share of gross domestic product of the country, than the inhabitant of the South Kazakhstan area. This proportion is even higher in Mangistausk and Atyrausk areas. The increasing aspiration of regional elite is connected with it, on the one hand, to defend the positions in the power (first of all, the southern areas) on the other – to win the level of representation in the power adequate to a present economic role (the Western Kazakhstan).

4. “Brigade” practice of updating of the management by areas when the new head takes the team of managers. It brings an element of the unnecessary competition and the conflicts in work of akimats, strengthening at the same time the psychology of favourites both at members of new team and among the administrative civil servants who haven't been protected from violations of the law about civil service.

5. The period of real implementation of the program of production diversification (as bases for alignment of the main disproportions between productive and consuming regions) is removed out of the limits of medium-term outlook. It means an aggravation of fight of regional elite for representation in the government, parliament, judicial system, power bodies, the corps of akims of areas.

Degree of this risk entirely depends on balance in system of personal and group arrangements and the unions in the power. This circumstance demands not only especially exact monitoring and anticipatory control, but also high degree of authoritativeness of the persons representing the president in daily work on this direction.

Category of threat: for all considered period and situational at the same time.

THREATS IN THE SOCIAL SPHERE

Threats of social infrastructure crisis

The system of preservation, reproduction and improvement of quality of the human capital in mind.

In education sphere

Proceeding decrease in quality of an education system and upbringing. In many respects it bears the impress of the period of the 90th years, characterized by compelled “optimization” of existing system of the Soviet sample. The present stage of development of Kazakhstan introduced the new moments in this process. Discrepancy between quantitative indices (financing, growth of number of material objects of system, adoption of the new laws, some increase of the material status of educators) and qualitative parameters of an education system and upbringing became aggravated. The sharp increase in number of higher education institutions led not to growth of professional qualification and civil culture of graduates, but to their decline. It is especially noticeable in the health care sphere. Less considerable, but it isn't less pernicious in education.

Rapid growth of corruption potential of the state monitoring system of quality of graduates knowledge (ENT), the Bolashak program is indicative. The decision of the Ministry of Education on introduction of practice of repeated examination at admission examinations in higher education institutions doesn't solve a problem, thus creating “the second circle” of the same problem.

The essential delay of programs implementation of competitiveness increase of Kazakhstan can be a practical consequence of such situation in every sense of this concept.

Category of threat: will remain until the end of the considered period.

Preservation of sources of deviating behaviour in the youth environment. Objective basis is a gap between socially necessary requirements and material resources of the country. During the considered period the level of 1990 year on a condition of children's preschool education and education won't be reached yet, with the corresponding consequences for children's domestic and school collectives.

The official statistics of crimes fixes the steady growth of a share of minors’ crimes. Hooligan manifestations not fixed by official statistics on a residence, youth leisure and that is especially important, in establishments of education have much more mass character. One more aspect of deviating behaviour is the prompt growth of drug addiction. In the youth environment the drug addiction becomes prestigious, ceasing to be destiny of outcasts, and it additionally complicates the fight against it.

The insufficient social status of teachers, level of their material support by the state, weak communication of administrative structures of an education system with the parental organizations significantly reduce the motivation of work of teachers as representatives of the state and society. Thereby potentially the most important (because it is the first after a family) channel of socialization of the personality remains a resource of the state not used fully.

Category of threat: constant within the considered period.

In the health care sphere

Here the similar situation takes place: the amounts of financing didn't lead yet to adequate lifting of quality of work of healthcare institutions. The health care sphere didn't reach yet the public acceptable balance of paid and free medicine.

Low qualitative level of health care. It represents a difficult complex of problems, from quantity of health care facilities and quality of used medicines and the equipment to level of preparation of teachers of medical schools and, respectively, graduates. Many organizational and methodical problems aren't solved, general preventive inspection of the population isn't adjusted as the base of system of medical care. Growth of number of diseases, including social diseases takes place.

As show the last sociological measurements, the situation with quality of medical care got to number of the factors, potentially capable to cause protest moods, both in society and among the medical workers.

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Threat to sanitary and epidemiologic wellbeing of the country. They appeared already boldly enough. In recent years the quantity of HIV-infected exceeded 10000 people for March, 2008, (by expert estimates – 14000), the indicator of infections with syphilis remains at the level of 8-9 thousand. High level of diseases of hepatitis, meningitis, dysentery, salmonellosis, other infectious diseases remains.

The main reason is in non-performance of the state and industry programs in full, first of all “Clear drinking water” which lasts for years. The situation on tuberculosis became a subject of already international concern: 150 people on 100 thousand of population (for comparison, in the Baltic States - 9 people). The menacing situation on HIV infection, venereal diseases, children's infections, child and maternal mortality directly influences the development of a demographic situation in Kazakhstan.

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Low quantitative parameters of health system in rural areas. Absence of necessary medical institutions in the village transfers a problem from social in economic as it acts as a factor of amplifying migration of country people to the city and increasing marginalization of urban population.

Category of threat: for all considered period.

Risk of mass outbreak of infectious diseases. Can take place in the conditions of a seasonal aggravation of problems with water, first of all in the south of Kazakhstan, with the corresponding political consequences.

Category threat: force majeure, in the presence of all preconditions to it.

THREATS IN THE INFORMATION SPHERE

Information security. Serious threat, along with monopolization of information market of the country, its separate sectors of domestic and foreign information structures, is the low efficiency of information support of a state policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan owing to deficiency of qualified personnel, lack of system of formation and realization of the state information policy, insufficient coordination of activity of republican public authorities and also local authorities on formation and realization of a united state policy in the field of ensuring information security of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Category of threat: constant.

Backwardness of internal information space. As the sociological researches show, the Russian and foreign mass media are the main source of information for the majority of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Domination of the foreign information content especially noticeable in the television sphere.

In process of distribution of digital technologies to mass media, the problem of filling of an information field by the maintenance of a domestic production will gain the character not only creative, but also technological. Local mass media remain noncompetitive in information space of the country. Already all manifestations of external information and ideological expansion are now observed. There is an import of foreign (American, Russian) ideologies, the population of the country is poorly informed on events within the country. The situation is aggravated still with that the official mass media owing to unpopularity and low level of trust from the population aren't capable to carry out the main function – carrying out the state information and ideological policy.

Category of threat: the constant which is quickly accruing in process of distribution of information technologies.

Lack of system of feedback. In the information sphere a potential source of serious threats of national security is inadequacy of activity of the state structures, disorder of systems of collecting and information analysis and also adoption of administrative decisions, availability of levers of the government to representatives of financial and industrial groups.

Attempts to increase efficiency of a state administration had no success, the reforms were focused on use of new information and communication technologies without structural change of bodies of a state administration.

Information exchange in the state society format faces serious hindrances and distortions at the level of ideas, ideologies, values, myths, norms, rules and rituals. The gap between a modernizing charge of the strategy offered by the president, both archaic and paternalistic inquiries and society expectations grows.

The state and political institutes are not only capable to act as effective conductors of presidential ideas, but also tightened in a funnel of social degradation. They are inclined to follow the tastes rather of moods and the inquiries which are forming in marginal sectors of society.

Category of threat: constant.

THREATS IN TECHNO AND ECOLOGICAL SPHERES

The threats generated by a condition of housing and communal services

Treat the old category, but tending to a sudden aggravation.

Large-scale failures in work of systems water, heat, power and gas supply. Objective preconditions are present in the form of high degree of wear of systems of housing and communal services, including, first of all, both capitals and the regional centres. In the most successful municipal economy of Almaty the wear of water pipes reaches 70%, there are more than 3000 accidents in a year, but no more than 6 km of pipes are under repair (decrease in 10 times with former indicators). At the same time, Gorvodokanal's main production assets weren't updated for the last 15 years and the main treatment facilities are from 1940th years.

Thus the high concentration of urban population is the precondition of a negative political resonance in case of large-scale accidents. In other cities the situation is even more difficult.

Category of threat: constant.

Increasing decay of housing stock and inefficiency of efforts on its repair and maintenance. It is one of the most probable items of the budget which are the subject to postponement for the uncertain future in the conditions of crisis. Especially the risk in the regions of the country subject to an earthquake is great. Including Almaty, the largest city of the country.

Now the satisfactory solution of this problem isn't proposed by the government, because of huge cost intensity of necessary amount of works.

Category of threat: force majeure.

Threats of technogenic catastrophes

Are close to noted above, but concentrate mainly in zones of industrial production.

The main precondition is the high degree of wear of fixed assets in national economy. As a whole in the country i- 40, 6%. The greatest wear in Atyrausk (57,7%), Kyzylordinsk (48,4%), North-Kazakhstan (46,2%). More than 40% of wear of fixed assets also in Almaty, East-Kazakhstan Region, Zhambylsk, Karaganda, Pavlodar areas.

The precondition second for the importance is decrease in a skill level of the service personnel and direct neglect of the safety regulations, noted, in particular, during the investigation of accidents on coal mines of Karaganda.

Category of threat: it is probable during the whole considered period.

By the results of the carried-out analysis it is necessary to state the following highlights.

There were essential changes in hierarchy of threats of national security of the country. As the role of Kazakhstan increased as the subject of the international relations, its positions on the international scene and weight in system of the international economic relations were consolidated, degree of its involvement into the development and the solution of the main actual geopolitical and economic processes increased. It promoted objectively caused “turning” of hierarchy of threats in the direction of increase in specific weight of external threats and the corresponding substantial filling of threats internal, adjoining or affected from external threats.

Geopolitical position of Kazakhstan defined the importance of the country as transit and intermediary link in the most important spheres of the international cooperation. Along with indisputable advantages of the new situation, Kazakhstan faced the need of new judgment of necessary balance of integration initiatives and the strategic directions of an independent sustainable development.

The crisis phenomena endured by the country in economy showed the need of accumulation of internal margin of safety for overcoming of fluctuations of an economic environment, first of all concerning the efficiency of state bodies of all levels. It is crucial for full use of the objective preconditions created in the country for a sustainable development on foreseeable prospect.

It especially necessary that the today's condition of moods in society on many parameters came nearer or coincides with a situation of the beginning of the 2000th years when the paradigm of moods of a survival prevailed instead of the development. The rooting which has occurred since then of public psychology of consumption and development on the basis of formation of domestic middle class will make return to the past by a detonator of social and political instability.

The tasks of purposeful work of further institutional strengthening of development mechanisms, finding of an optimum in the ratio strategic and current tasks in economy, to formation of a personnel resource on prospect, to stimulation of statist motivation of the administrative case move forward on the foreground in a difficult complex of problems of strengthening of public administration.