Who goes which way, but “Yanukovych to Moscow?”

The leading Ukrainian political scientists Rostislav Ishchenko, Mikhail Pogrebinsky and Vladimir Kornilov answered the questions what waits for Victor Yanukovych in Moscow on March 4: in their opinion, Russia won't make concessions...

- The prime minister of Ukraine Nikolay Azarov in the Shuster LIVE broadcast declared on March 2 that receiving the next credit from EU requires the rise in prices for gas for the population. And performance of this task in turn possibly if to persuade Russia to reduce the gas price. Does the Ukrainian management really think that Russia will pay the European Integration of Ukraine at own expense?

Vladimir Vladimirovich Kornilov is the political scientist, the director of the Ukrainian branch of Institute of CIS countries:

- The stabilization of the Ukrainian budget is really necessary for the credit of IMF. And in this respect it is known that the IMF considered the possibility of the credit long ago in a binding to balancing of this budget and insisted on a number of measures, in particular, on rise in prices for gas for the population. Really, the decrease in the Russian gas price will help the balancing of the budget and, respectively, will make more probable the credits not only of IMF, but also increase of a credit rating of Ukraine. But it is only the technical part of a question.

It is much more important, as far as the receiving of these credits is reasonable for Ukraine in general taking into account the prospects opening at the introduction in the Customs Union.


Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky is the political scientist, the director of the Kiev Centre of political researches and conflictology:

- I don't think that the Ukrainian management thinks that Russia will pay the European integration of Ukraine at own expense. Simply Russia has own interests, in particular, connected with control over Ukrainian “pipe”. It seems that making decision on consortium creation approaches in this direction. It is a question of consortium which will receive in GTS rent. It won't be sold as Belarusian “pipe”, but would be leased.

And in reply to it Russia can reduce the gas price. And it is possible even in case of no advance on the issue of participation of Ukraine in the Customs Union.

Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko is the political scientist, the president of the Centre of the system analysis and forecasting:

- I think that in this case Nikolay Yanovich’s statement is so logical, as well as his statement that the Ukrainian roads are bad because were built according to other technologies in the Soviet Union. But if Ukraine is independent for 22 years and during this time the roads had to pass overhaul at least two times, it means that after all the Ukrainian government didn't repair the roads. I will remind that Odessa highway which causes the tears of Nikolay Yanovich, was under construction already at the independent power and, nevertheless, collapsed completely.

Nikolay Yanovich’s statement is logical in the same way that it is necessary to raise the gas prices in order to obtain the credit. And in order that not to raise them, it is necessary to receive a discount for gas from Russia. There is no logic here as if to agree with Russia, so neither the IMF credit, nor EU is favourable to Ukraine in that case. Because in that case it will earn itself. Beginning with a reduced price for gas and finishing that in case of the introduction in the Customs Union Ukraine gets some more sources profits which are measured by billion dollars a year - by different estimates about 9 billion dollars. And it is so much, how many Ukraine has to pay this year on the credits already now. Also I will remind that Ukraine wanted to take 15 billion dollars from IMF.

I think that at net income of the budget in 9 billion it is possible to agree with Russia also about additional crediting. It wouldn't be difficult if the negotiations were carried on really structurally.

As for the rise for gas prices for the population, so this is the requirement of IMF. And, really, the credit from IMF can be obtained only if the gas prices would be raised. There are some more requirements of reduction of social expenses.

Naturally, the government doesn't want to go on it because in 2015 presidential election will take place and it will be very difficult to explain why the social expenses were cut down sharply. Thus money is necessary to the government not to reduce the social expenses before elections. And it turns out that they are suggested to strike blow to “social sphere” in the beginning - to take away on 100 dollars from us in the beginning and then to return, maybe, on 25 dollars. Besides, so far as concerns EU credit. This credit is possible in 600 million Euro and it is attached to the IMF credit. EU told that is ready to give out this credit in case the IMF allocates the credit. And therefore EU credit, naturally, is attached to gas price increase too.

But if Russia reduces the gas price, there is no sense to raise it for the population. Besides, Nikolay Yanovich puts a cart ahead of a horse. I.e. he considers that Russia is obliged to finance the Ukrainian problems at own expense. Thus that Ukraine isn't going to go Russia on a meeting in one question.

- During the same broadcast “Shuster LIVE” Azarov stated the confidence that on March 4, during the visit of the president of Ukraine to Moscow it will be possible to agree about the reduction of gas price. In your opinion, with what offers the Ukrainian delegation goes to Moscow, what result of negotiations plans and what, most likely, will receive?

Vladimir Vladimirovich Kornilov is the political scientist, the director of the Ukrainian branch of Institute of CIS countries:

I think that the period of promotion of counter offers already passed. In the last two years Ukraine and Russia exchanged very large number of offers, ideas, projects. Therefore, I think, nobody would be able already to offer something new. Russia offered Ukraine a number of options how it is possible to reduce the gas price. Ukraine long put the price for itself, long doubted something. It is known that Putin long ago let know to Ukraine and Yanukovych that there is no sense to come to Russia with the next discussions of details. Key parameters of all arrangements were coordinated one and a half years ago. And, respectively, Moscow waits when Ukraine will put the price to itself as a result.

Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky is the political scientist, the director of the Kiev Centre of political researches and conflictology:

- I can say that two key subjects will be the main. It is destiny of the gas transmission system where, seemingly, that a line out of the contract on consortium creation already is and, probably, the intermediate, important point in coordination of all these subtleties on “pipe” will be the first important result of visit.

As for interaction with the Customs Union, here to Ukraine no options of partial participation if they don't aim at final, full memberships in the Customs Union are interesting to Russia. For Ukraine it is interesting to receive the partial membership which wouldn't exclude advance on the way of Free Trade Zone with EU. But if Ukraine enters the Customs Union, it won't be able to conclude the agreement on Free Trade Zone with EU. Therefore here the situation while is similar to the deadlock. I think that the exit here is possible if Ukraine signs the certain “road map” the final point of which is the full membership in the Customs Union in the long term through about ten years. And before the consecutive introduction in the Customs Union, not contradicting the Free Trade Zone with EU is provided at the first stages. I don't know technically is it probable or not.

But it seems to me that a certain euphemism is to sit on two chairs. And the variant that Ukraine has to refuse to sit on two chairs seems not realistic to me – we simply aren't able to make it.

Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko is the political scientist, the president of the Centre of the system analysis and forecasting:

- Besides the statement of Nikolay Yanovich who promises for the third year that exactly during the following visit of the president will agree about reduction of gas price and whose forecasts never justify, there is a statement of the Russian management, including the statement of the Russian President's Press Secretary that signing of any documents isn't planned because the Ukrainian party isn't ready to signing yet. If the documents weren't ready as of Thursday, it means that if something will be signed there, so actually Yanukovych will sign a clean sheet of paper. Because during this time it is impossible to work the documents qualitatively. I think that no documents will be signed. There will be any joint statement, the communique or something else like that.

Besides, there is a position sounded by the president of Ukraine that on the one hand Ukraine, it seems, agrees about bilateral consortium with Russia. On the other hand that it wants to lease the GTS to “Gazprom”. And on the third hand it agrees about tripartite consortium with the Europeans at the same time, but it isn't clear with what. I think that such position is deeply destructive. It can't lead to any result. Unless, during negotiations such improbable documents will be put on table before the president of Ukraine that he will close eyes and will sign besides the agreement on consortium, on anything, but actually without getting a grasp of the concrete text of the document at all. Because for today the documents aren't ready to signing according to the statement of both parties.

And there is one more important point. Gas prices are determined not by the presidents. Presidents can agree in principle after that to give an assignment, respectively, to “Gazprom” and “Naftogaz” and those in turn have to issue the worked documents and to sign them. It is the process which has to take any time - while the presidents will talk, while they give an assignment. And even if immediately the representatives of the relevant structures being in structure of delegation leave and will start working over documents, I very strongly doubt that they will manage to make them within March 4. Unless that the Ukrainian party will sign a blank clean sheet and will tell – write on it what you want.

Therefore I think that this visit if will bring something, so can bring only Yanukovych's any basic statement – yes, we agree to such conditions. In my opinion, Yanukovych isn't ready to such statement yet. And if it appears that he is ready, it will mean that negotiations moved off the dead point in principle and that it is possible to expect any results by the end of April, the beginning of May.