Why China and Japan have quarreled?

Unexpectedly for many people the relations between China and Japan sharply worsen. Senkaku Islands became a stumbling block in the bilateral relations which each of the countries considers as own. But, if earlier they argued only on tribunes and newspaper pages, now opposition passed to other plane …

At our request the situation was commented by Peter Podalko, the professor of Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, one of the oldest private universities in Japan, which recently celebrated the 140 anniversary. He teaches at faculty of international policy, economy and communications the disciplines connected with cultural history of Russia and countries of Eastern Europe, Eurasia, teaches special courses on history, philology and geography. He has defended two dissertations in Japan in the Japanese language. He is the author of books “Japan in destinies of the Russians. Sketches of the history of the Russian diplomacy and diaspora in the Far East in the XIX beginning of the XX centuries” and “The Russian White-Guard émigré and Japan”.

- Today only the lazy man doesn't discuss the strain of relations between China and Japan because of the conflict round accessory of Senkaku Islands. It was known about this collision long ago, but the clamour was set up right now …

- The matter is in the policy. A few years ago Minsyuto Democratic Party came to power in Japan which interrupted the long-term hegemony of Liberal Democratic Party. The Democratic Party was in opposition for many years, but to be the professional oppositionist is not the same as to head the country! Very many slogans, appeals and promises which this party gave, being in opposition, appeared not quite realized.

This remark concerns the foreign policy. Absence of experience in similar affairs and not so good knowledge of possible reaction from partners have the impact. Current situation is the result of unreasoned actions of government officials concerning the neighbouring countries. The long-term experience of cooperation and not cooperation with Russia on the same questions has the impact too.

- But what is the difference of positions of leading parties on a political scene of Japan?

- The Democratic Party was allocated from the Liberal and Democratic Party in due time, that is, all its present functionaries once were the liberal democrats. And that is the case when people didn't want to wait. They had a chance to hold the highest party posts, but they hastened to cash own political ambitions by creation of new party.

Absence of experience and aspiration unusual to Japan to jump out forward, without waiting, while veterans of a political scene will descend, led to that we observe. Besides, Japan has territorial debate with Russia since the Soviet Union. But the absence of any extremist feeble efforts, concerning those islands, lulled the present Japanese political elite in any sense.

Nobody waited in China that on the eve of the next congress of communist party there will be similar events. The Japanese society was simply shocked with all this. And today there is no consensus in the country as occurs …

- But the subject is discussed actively?

- Certainly. The Japanese are simply dumbfounded by break-in of the Japanese shops and restaurants in China, destruction of the Japanese goods. The citizens of Japan are officially recommended by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to refrain from trips to China. The mass of the most different projects in many fields of activity is stopped. All celebrations of the 40 anniversary of restoration of the relations between two countries are cancelled. Programs of an delegations exchange are called off…

But the most interesting is that Senkaku Islands about which there is a speech, formally belong to the Japanese in a private order. That is, the owner of islands is one Japanese family, but not the state. These islands are quite far from the main islands, all known and never had strategic value. Nobody considered them as the territory over which the Japanese flag surely should flutter.

However, the situation changed when nationalistically adjusted governor of the Tokyo prefecture mister Isikhara started to propagandize the idea of purchase of these islands from owners that was made in result. It is necessary to say that earlier this politician veteran suggested to buy the Kuriles from Russia. Then it seemed to him that at the time of economic wellbeing Japan is so rich that can buy islands and, thereby, close a problem. Well, and when the words concerning Senkaku Islands began to turn into actions, it simply should burn down the Chinese vanity.

- And nevertheless such sharp reaction wasn’t waited from China.

- As far as I can judge, now one of the main problems for China is the need of ideological justification of world expansion of China. Earlier China never was engaged in it. They invented China towns exactly for the reason that it is always comfortable for the normal Chinese in the Chinese environment. Other people have no similar communities further than the third generation and in a case with China towns everything can be reproduced somehow long at the Chinese!

But now it is necessary to prove somehow a task for China, first of all for itself, of strengthening of the Chinese presence in the world. And in this situation the idea of purchase of any islands by Japan which territorially could belong to China, but don't belong, caused a huge wave of indignation.

- There is such point of view that a problem essence is natural gas which is found on a shelf of these islands.

- They write that it is possible to begin the development of a shelf. And so there is nothing: neither production, nor tourist industry. Nobody lives there, but now there is one interesting moment: the Japanese are ready to be registered exactly there! Precedent is already created – 88 citizens of Japan declared the desire to be considered living in this place. They submitted the corresponding demands which were satisfied. Of course, it doesn't mean that they will really live there, but to be as aborigines, so to say.

- Already the incidents began …

- There was nothing serious. Japanese and Chinese vessels watered each other from water-cannons. They did without victims.

- Some experts already seriously argue on armed conflict possibility because of Senkaku Islands. Is such succession of events real?

- No! All the matter is that this territory gets to a zone which should be protected by the American armies deployed on Japanese islands. There is an agreement in this respect. And just at the height of the conflict the additional agreement on strengthening of the American presence at the region was signed. The Americans don't want to create the additional centre of intensity and both parties urge to settle the conflict at a negotiating table. But all know that the representative of the American state department signed the next document with the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirming that if suddenly there will be an armed conflict, America will protect Japan.

- What is it possible to say about reaction of public opinion? Nobody suggests to give islands to China?

- No, but, notice, nobody urges to give … Actually I would call the relation to a problem as inert. There was only one case of the anti-Chinese manifestations. Even not in Tokyo! Any young and intemperate person tried to throw a bottle with an incendiary mix into a building of the Chinese consulate in the city of Fukuoka. He was disarmed by policemen right there … But there were no mass meetings or demonstrations in Japan.

- But why? In China the statements had mass character …

- You know, probably, the matter is that in Japan there is no this sort of actions. The most surprising, that even the right-wing ultranationalist groups which are in the country and which always act as the leaders of meetings initiators before our embassy in day of fight release of northern territories, desist from any statements.

And after all the Japanese companies incurred real losses in China. Car sales fell, TVs began to buy on a third less! Travel companies very suffered. The matter is that three years ago Japan removed all restrictions on country visit by individuals from the People's Republic of China, and earlier Chinese could visit the country only as a part of groups. And just now in China there is the vacation in China – the Japanese travel agencies counted on the good income, but remained with nothing.

- Will the anti-Japanese statements in China proceed, in your opinion?

- It is very likely that all this campaign was inspired by the authorities of China. Because somehow everything began at once and somehow ended in one stage… But, if everything spontaneously begins and somehow suddenly, as if on command, comes to an end, it suggests that everything was prepared in advance.

For example, all posters, banners which were born by demonstrators, were made in the factory way, but not in a hurry. The question in this case is only one: did everything was prepared for a concrete action or was stored on a case when it would be useful?

- What is the forecast for situation development?

- To give a forecast in this case is very difficult, as the situation is influenced by one more factor. The matter is that at the same time with dispute because of Senkaku Islands with the People's Republic of China, Japan had difficulties with South Korea. And because of islands too which, generally, don't represent something.

However, in this case the situation differs. The president of Korea Lee Myung-bak made a trip to Takeshima Islands (in the Korean – Tokto). And in this case everything was inspired by the Korean, instead of the Japanese party. All the matter is that Lee Myung-bak, whose term of office comes to an end, was going to propose the candidature on presidential elections again. Serious charges are brought against him and his immediate environment in the country therefore the Korean president solved to raise the rating in such way …

But this is possible to tell definitely – In Korea the events won't develop as in China absolutely precisely. As both South Korea and Japan are the allies of the USA, the American armies are deployed in both countries. The Americans are obliged to protect both of them under available agreements if suddenly someone attacks them. So, in my opinion, the conflict possibility is excluded here. Even the hypothetical.