Why the Russians leave Kyrgyzstan?

The UN published data according to which the Russian diaspora in Kyrgyzstan will be reduced almost twice by 2030 and will total be about 194 thousand people. These data were published by United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). According to its data, each five years the country will be left by about 50 thousand Russians …

However, the chairman of “Russian of United Union of Compatriots” in the republic Alexander Ivanov is confident that estimates of the UN sound too … optimistic:

- Data of the UN sounds very pessimistic, but your estimates are even more severe. Why?

- Unfavourable forecasts are under construction on knowledge of the political processes happening in Kyrgyzstan. Now people lay hopes on the resettlement program which is carried out by Russia. More regions now will participate in it – participation to 50 regions of the Russian Federation is expected! Conditions for the simplified obtaining the Russian nationality are created, a number of measures is accepted still. All this, naturally, pushes the Russian population of the republic to departure.

It is worth noticing that Kyrgyzstan, probably, is the only country, where the most large number of immigrants on a share of all population for all history of outflow of the population from the republics of the former USSR. We specially carried out the analysis and found out that the quantity moved out of borders of the country makes exactly a half from all Slavic population of the republic. Our forecast is as follows: within the next five years the population outflow considerably will grow.

- Is it somehow connected with policy?

- People expect that the period of political instability will come. We, as they say, live from spring to fall: we have any revolts, meetings, overlapping of roads … Shortly the parliamentary elections are expected: if not next year, but in 2015 exactly. They bear instability threat.

We look further: 2016 is hundred years from known events – national revolt. Nationalists plan to celebrate this date in a special way … And preparation for presidential election will already begin a trace. And we, naturally, believe that these political processes will influence the processes migratory. And it is a question not only of the Slavic population of the republic.

- That is, the statistics will be sad?

- The official statistics strongly differs from the informal. According to UN forecasts, for example, now the Slavic population totals 360 thousand people, and these are 6, 5% from all population of the country. But we consider that actually this figure today is other – 300 thousand … And in the next years it still will be decreased twice.

- Such rate of migration is a big minus for Kyrgyzstan?

- Certainly! But it won't be in a different way. Here, for example, recently the parliament adopted the law which allows to fine both citizens and legal entities for ignorance or insufficient knowledge of a state language! The president rejected this law because it is anti-constitutional. And I would tell, it is anti-moral!

No mechanisms of its functioning and interpretation were registered. If president Atambayev signed it, population outflow from the republic would become enormous. It would cause the strongest indignation of the population. And at the same time, the Kyrgyz population would suffer also who doesn't know a state language sufficiently.

- That is, the power sees a problem.

- We don't see cardinal measures that both to convince and to stimulate people to remain here. Perhaps, at any level such work also makes … President Atambayev tries to balance between various branches of the power. He, on the one hand, understands that it is impossible to sign the laws similar to about which I already spoke. But on the other hand we after all have a list towards the parliamentary form of government and the parliament presses on the president. Therefore, having rejected the law on language, he has to accept any other measures for strengthening of a role of the Kyrgyz language.

- It is clear. Are they going to develop the Russian language?

- No, any measures for strengthening of positions of the Russian aren’t carried out. We say many years that effectively working programs on development both Kyrgyz and Russian languages are necessary. There are any attempts concerning the Kyrgyz language, but are not undertaken any real measures to rescue and develop here the Russian at the state level. The state doesn’t undertake special measures because it seems to it that the Russian will never die here. And the time is so …

That is interesting: thus the tendency to studying of the Russian language goes up, but today to the state has no any not only material, but also human resources to rescue a situation and to develop the Russian in Kyrgyzstan.

- It turns out that there is no way out?

- Introduction of institute of a dual citizenship would be the only factor which can though a little keep people from departure. Only it will keep possibility of accommodation of the Russian population in Kyrgyzstan.