Aleksey Gromyko: “In Catalonia will be not so as in Scotland”

The grandson of the well-known Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union Andrey Gromyko, 28 years holding this post, the Doctor of Political Sciences Alexey Gromyko now is the director of Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Naturally, he has an eye closely on political processes on the continent. Today it will be a question of two referenda and their influence on policy: the taken place in Scotland, and not taken place yet in Catalonia:

- Many had recently an impression that Scotland leaves structure of the United Kingdom. Somewhere half a year ago polls showed that separatism is supported by 35−37% of the population. For the last month — two the nationalists could make powerful breakthrough forward. And even in recent months two-three times came forward! But if to know this country, that, in general was clear that nationalists will lose.

But all the matter is that there are not two losses alike! It is possible to lose and lose everything, and it is possible to lose and something to receive. I think that the Scotch National Party which has lost on this referendum, in any way didn’t pass into the category of the lost. All the matter is that London already promised, regardless of results of a referendum, further transfer of new portions of powers, as rights, so, however, the duties to Edinburgh.

Everything began with that in 1997 the labourites came to the power in Great Britain. Then they were called as new labourites and the bright politician Tony Blair was at the head of them. And the popular concept of the third way was very fashionable then. This concept was realized by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, but not in everything, naturally. In 1998 the process under the name of devolution was started. In other words, it is power decentralization in Great Britain and delegation of a number of powers from the centre to regions.

England and Scotland are in the union since 1707, and since then the parliament in Edinburgh didn’t work. But it was recreated at the end of the decade before last. It was considered that reform on devolution which was carried out in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, will lead to that nationalist sentiments will begin to decline. It was staked on that the majority of inhabitants will understand that their regions acquired more rights.

Great Britain is still in a form of the unitary state, but actually is such quasi-federation, or the country which is in process of federating. It is possible to compare it to Spain in this sense. Spain under the constitution is the country of regions, but it is closer to the unitary device, than any other state. Now in Spain and Great Britain the regions began to demand more and more powers.

And, it is necessary to understand that separatism is many-sided. There are also those who asserted the rights with the arms in hands. Remember the story with Corsicans, with Basques, opposition in Ulster. But gradually the nationalism in these countries passes into the category civil and built in political structures of the respective countries. So it happened in Great Britain where the Scotch national party was considered marginal and radical in the 50th years. But then it turned into part of political system of the country and began to use lawful methods to come to the power.

Also it is necessary to tell that under the leadership of Alex Salmond this party made the almost impossible — on the previous regional elections it became ruling and created the government of the majority. But after all most of the population considers that Scotland as a part of Great Britain has the maximum chances to solve their problems. But nationalists dissembled in many respects. For example, when the population was frightened that Scotland as a part of the United Kingdom and the service of national health care will be threatened. But all the matter is that at this government about 400 million pounds sterling were invested in market mechanisms of health care …

What will be farther? The prime minister Cameron already declared that in January the bill of a further devolution in favour of Edinburgh will be introduced in parliament. The second hearing will be in the spring. During 2015 we will look what new prerogatives are received by the Scottish nationalists. Most likely, if ever there is a question of a new referendum or plebiscite, it will be in about 10 or 15 years. Already all political parties of the country and Scottish nationalists declared that this decision is for generation. If to consider 15−20 years on generation, the forecast is such that for the foreseeable period of time of such shake-up for the country doesn’t happen any more.

But in Catalonia it was declared that results of a referendum in Scotland won’t affect determination of Catalonia to carry out this referendum. It is necessary to tell that between Great Britain and Spain there is small, and, maybe, a big difference in this sense. Great Britain treats those countries which live under the unwritten constitution — they have no constitution as document in which all articles are written down on paper. And here in Spain there is such constitution. And according to the Spanish legislation any of regions of the country can’t hold a referendum in own borders about secession of Spain.

If there would be such referendum, it has to be carried out in the territory of all country as a whole. By the way, the same was in the constitution of the Soviet Union when any of its parts had the right for country secession but only in case such decision was made on an all-Union referendum. As we know, then this article was violated in the constitution of the USSR.

Madrid declares that it won’t allow holding this referendum. But it is clear that the nationalism in Catalonia already passes a certain side for which as it happened in Great Britain, there can be a question of territorial integrity of the country. But unlike Scotland, I think the majority of inhabitants of Catalonia, and the majority that is called absolute, supports independence.

When we say that the Russian children in the Baltic States and in Ukraine have scanty opportunities for education in the native language, in any sense this situation got very big scales in Catalonia. There training in Spanish for the last 15−20 years was narrowed very much. As far as I understand, not every Spaniard living in Catalonia, can educate the children in Spanish.

If the referendum would be forbidden, it is not the fact that the public won’t carry it out. But only it will be already accompanied by any forms of a protest. There can be collisions with police, street riots —those which was hardly constrained in Scotland. It is clear, that the referendum won’t solve a problem of Catalan separatism. And if in Scotland the question of independence is cleaned in a long box — at least on 10−15 years, so it seems to me, this year there will be a succession of events in Catalonia which will lead not to pacification, but to an aggravation.