Arms export: view from Belarus

Experts from Republic of Belarus considered the main tendencies of the development of arms export and military equipment and influence of military expenses on it at the present stage. The deputy chief of the department of social sciences of Military Academy of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Leonovich and the senior teacher of the department of the economic theory of the Belarusian State University Natalya Tikhonovich have analysed the current trends and noted the countries, being leaders in export of arms and military equipment of willows military expenses and also considered the reasons of military expenses growth.
Ensuring national security and defence capability in the conditions of an aggravation of competitive fight and interstate rivalry on the world scene demands from any member of the world community to pay a close attention to equipment the Armed forces by modern arms and military equipment (VVT). The Military Industrial Complexes (MIC) of the majority of the countries of the world aren’t able to satisfy all needs of national armies in arms and military equipment and the demand for them becomes covered by means of import. Besides, the military production created in many countries at the previous stages of development and low capacity of domestic market do necessary export of part of the made arms and military equipment. Realization of exporters and importers' interests of arms and military equipment is realized in the world market of VVT. The enter into the world markets of VVT is carried out through system of the international military-economic relations (IMER).
The main forms of the international military-economic relations are: help to the foreign states; trade in arms and military equipment; license production of VVT; joint development of arms and military equipment; joint venture for production of VVT; international strategic alliance of producers of VVT; merges and absorption, including the transnational.
However, the main place in IMER is taken by trade in arms and military equipment. The peak of traffic in arms was in 1987 and made 40,6 billion dollars. But since 1988 almost continuous recession of world deliveries of VVT began. In 1994 it was realized military products for 19,7 billion dollars in the world, i. e. it is nearly 2,1 times less than in 1987. It was caused by sharp reduction of world military expenses after the end of cold war.
At the beginning of the XXI century the sale of VVT gradually began to increase. According to the centre of world weapon trade in 2005 — 2012 the annual volume of world export of arms and military equipment steadily increased till 2008 inclusive. However because of a world economic crisis in 2008 which began in the fall the growth of world export in 2008 almost stopped in comparison with 2007. The world economic crisis had the most essential impact on world trade by the weapon in 2009 when the world volume of military export decreased to 45,148 billion dollars. However in 2010 the world military export significantly increased and in 2012 the maximum for the 8-year period was recorded — 62,264 billion dollars. In general for the 8-year period (2005−2012) the volume of world export of VVT is estimated at the sum of 384,352 billion dollars.
The first place (by results of the centre of world weapon trade) from 68 countries which were carrying out VVT export on the actual export of VVT is occupied by the USA which during the period from 2005 to 2012 sold arms and military equipment for the sum of 146,675 billion dollars that makes 38,16% of all world export of VVT. The second place was taken by Russia — 57,252 billion dollars (14,9%), the third place took France — 32,248 billion dollars (8,4%), the fourth place was taken by Germany — 25,585 billion dollars; the fifth — Great Britain — 20,036 billion dollars.

Export of arms and military equipment in 2005 — 2012

73,3% of all deliveries of VVT for the sum of 281,796 billion dollars were the share of five largest suppliers of VVT (the USA, Russia, Germany, France, Great Britain) and 88,5% (340,31 billion dollars) were the share of ten suppliers of VVT in these years.

Rating of the export countries on the VVT actual export
in 2005 — 2012 (in million dollars)

The great demand on military production of the USA is caused by the following reasons: firstly, a high technological level of the offered military production; secondly, complexity of conditions of transactions and reliability of an after sales service of VVT; thirdly, constantly amplifying state support; fourthly, reorganization of activity of the military-industrial companies with orientation to foreign markets.
By results of the centre of world weapon trade rating VVT world import is presented by 159 countries. Five leading importers (India, the USA, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, South Korea) got arms and military equipment for the sum of 111730,9 million dollars that makes 29,1% of all acquisitions, ten countries — for the sum of 173253 million dollars or 45,1%.

Rating of the import countries on the VVT actual volume
import in 2005 — 2012 (million dollars in current prices)

Development of world export of arms and military equipment is predetermined by the sizes of military expenses. The history testifies that significant growth in military allocations happens during preparation and conducting the wars. All its participants spent 208,1 billion dollars for financing of World War I. In the years of World War I. I. military expenses reached 1 trillion 117 billion dollars. World military expenses reached the greatest sizes during «cold war», only from 1960 till 1986 they increased from 345 billion to 825 billion dollars (in the prices of 1984).
In the nineties years of the XX century the tendency of military expenses reduction was observed in many states. It was caused by the end of «cold war» and nuclear opposition of the USA and the USSR; collapse of the USSR. As a result the universal expenses on military needs during the considered period were cut down for 26%, including military expenses of the USA were cut for 29%, Great Britain — for 23%, France — for 13%, Germany — for 26%. The Russian military expenses were cut down by fifteen times — from 203 billion dollars in 1989 to 13,6 billion dollars in 1998.
At the beginning of the XXI century the military expenses started increasing. According to the centre of world weapon trade, they increased from 888345 million dollars in 2003 to 1554284 million dollars in 2012.

World military expenses in 2005 — 2012 (million dollars)

In the last four years the tendency of growth rate reduction of world military expenses was outlined. Growth rate of world military expenses after crisis of 2008−2009 significantly decreased though in absolute values the military expenses in 2010 and 2011 reached the maximum values for the last 8-year period, respectively 1598,091 billion dollars and 1617,912 billion dollars (in the current prices).
The major factors which caused the growth of military expenses are the following: the increase in military expenses in the USA connected with actions for fight against terrorism after attacks of terrorists on September 11, 2001; increase of military expenses in other economically developed countries (Great Britain, Japan); increase in military expenses in those countries which apply for a role of «regional» leaders (China, India, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria); increase of military expenses in the countries seeking to provide military parity with neighbouring states (for example, in South Korea, Azerbaijan, Armenia); growth of military expenses in the countries representing regions, unstable from the military-political point of view (The Middle East and North Africa).
However, in 2012 for the first time the world military expenses were cut for 3,93% in comparison with previous year and made 1554,284 billion dollars. And the most essential contribution of the universal military expenses decrease was made by reduction of the military budget of the USA.
At the same time the analysis of military expenses during the considered period allows to allocate two opposite tendencies which were outlined in world military expenses in the period of a world economic crisis. The first tendency consists that a number of the countries unambiguously declared the planned reductions of military budgets. The second opposite tendency is in military expenses increase.
Growth of military expenses is connected first of all by that support of national military industrial complex is very important for any country. In many developed countries the production of military industrial complex is serious export item and any military production is hi-tech goods the characteristics of which are defined by an appropriate level of technologies in civil industries of the industry. It means that the policy of the countries during the crisis period consists in that to keep war industry in the maximum degree as the most hi-tech sector of national economy. There are two solutions of this task — increase in the internal order for national military industrial complex and advance of production to the world market.
The USA is the leader in military expenses. From 2003 to 2012 it increased the military expenses from 415,223 million dollars to 656,207million dollars and won first place on military expenses in the world, having spent 5306,336 billion dollars for these purposes from 2005 till 2012. As data testify, for period of 2005 — 2012, the subsequent places are taken by China, Great Britain, Japan, Germany, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Italy and India after the USA.

Military expenses of the leading countries (billion dollars)

Indicators of military expenses testify to the real level of scales of military construction in this or that country and allow to estimate the level of attention of this or that country to military construction. For example, China rose from 7th to 2nd place on military expenses since 2003, Russia rose from 11th to 5th place in a rating for the same period. India, despite very large defensive programs, practically didn’t change the position in a rating.
Summing up the result of the aforesaid, it is possible to allocate the main tendencies connected with VVT export and world military expenses: after decrease of world military expenses at the end of the XX century as a result of the end of «cold war» there was their intensive growth at the beginning of the XXI century; thanks to growth of world military expenses the realization of arms and military equipment increased in the world markets of VVT at the beginning of the XXI century after sharp decrease at the end of the XX century; despite the world economic crisis which captured all countries of the world community, the increase of world military expenses proceeded in general.