Hayk Babukhanyan: conflict in the Caucasus is favourable to Americans!

The famous Armenian geopolitician, the deputy of National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, the chairman of the «Constitutional Law» Union Hayk Babukhanyan told to our portal about are the reasons of a sharp aggravation of a situation on borders of Nagorno-Karabakh which was followed by death of the military personnel of NKR and Azerbaijan.
— Who needed the new war? What the succession of such events could bring to Armenia?
- The war isn’t necessary to Armenia. Unless it is possible to release Nakhichevan and to open the railway communication of Yerevan with the South of the country and Iran. In the economic respect the benefit will be repeated as it isn’t necessary to build the very expensive railroad to Iran through Syunik mountains. But Nakhichevan’s release possible if the territory of the last would be used for a rocket shelling of the Ararat valley and the southern suburbs of Yerevan. But hardly Azerbaijanians will go for such large-scale conflict since understand that not only the border Ganzak and Mingechaur, but also Baku will be in ruins.
Not in vain the president of Armenia reminded of our ballistic missiles with a radius of defeat over 300 km. Besides, the oil and gas transmission infrastructure of Azerbaijan where serious western investments are enclosed will be completely destroyed.
— That is, the war could affect Azerbaijan very seriously?
- In Baku understand that in case of full-scale war also Turkey and NATO, Russia and the CSTO and possibly Iran will be involved in it. Therefore, most likely Baku won’t do more than boundary skirmishes and destabilization of Baku, though these skirmishes don’t bring to Baku serious dividends neither in negotiation process, nor in the solution of internal political tasks. Why do ten corpses of the soldiers and demonstration of own feebleness after long-term bragging about repeated superiority of their military budget necessary to Aliyev? That is, by and large, the war is not necessary to Azerbaijan now.
- But then there is a question: to whom is it necessary?
- And who needs to destabilize a situation in the region with involvement of a set of the parties in the conflict? If Azerbaijan and Turkey don’t get into serious war, but on the other hand Azerbaijan is the initiator of forcing of intensity, so they do it under pressing. Whose pressing? It is clear that not Russia’s. Not for nothing usually haughty Aliyev ran on steps to Putin who explained to him that it is necessary to be patient in a question of the solution of the Karabakh conflict and that the decision can be only peace and no other.
And still he reminded that this conflict got in inheritance from the Soviet Union. When this truth is told by lips of the president of Russia, naturally, there are associations with other «hereditary» conflicts: Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea. In a word, in Sochi Aliyev was let know that he shouldn’t hurry with change of the status quo.
Also it turns out that the only party interested even at the price of war to change the status quo is the USA. In any case, their ambassador in Armenia declared recently that further he doesn’t intend to suffer the status quo and threatened Armenians with war.
— It occurs because the USA don’t wish to be reconciled with change of a world order, loss of the leadership?
- In 2004 Zbigniew Brzeziński published the book «Choice. World supremacy or global leadership» following which the American policy puts the concept of a world disorder into practice. In this book the new world order appears as a global disorder and is the defining factor of a modern geostrategic landscape.
The author calls such American geostrategy as the world supremacy at which the USA actively use the armed force for advance of the interests in various regions of the planet, for a resolution of conflicts, change of the regimes. The USA experience difficulty and further keeps order in the world, favorable to them. At the same time they don’t wish to be reconciled with emergence of new poles of a world order and intend to keep leadership, using thinner tools for this purpose.
The USA seeks to abstain from direct participation in the large-scale conflicts. At the same time they will continue to kindle such conflicts, supporting the different fighting parties and stand thus aside. The purpose of such actions is maintenance of intensity in key regions of the world to cause instability on borders of new poles of world politics — Russia and China, to keep territories with necessary natural resources under control and not to allow the going of the European Union out of control which turns into the economic giant on clay political feet.
In the light of new policy of the USA it is necessary to perceive also the latest events in the Middle East where the zone of a global disorder and loss of the sovereignty of the countries stretches from Tunisia to borders of Iran, including Libya, Egypt (though here the situation gives hope for improvement), Israel, Palestine, Syria, Iraq.
— What is the scenario concerning the Caucasus?
- The position of Georgia doesn’t cause fear at transatlantic strategists as it (though over certain territories) actively associated with loss of the sovereignty in the European Union. And Azerbaijan though tries to pursue more or less independent policy, but is completely focused on NATO Turkey and is in big economic dependence on the West. Armenia is in military alliance with Russia and is going to enter the economic block with it: this fact is direct threat for realization of the American policy of global leadership in Transcaucasia.
All attempts to destabilize Armenia from within by creation of so-called civil society, and actually — networks of secret-service and under control structures, failed. The huge money pumped by the West for a brainwash and establishment of the necessary political regime in Armenia didn’t yield the results. Therefore, all hope for creation of the operated chaos in Transcaucasia at Americans remains on escalation of the Karabakh conflict and immense ambitions of Aliyev. The USA solves certain problems and receives dividends in case of military escalation of the border conflict with prevention of its development into full-scale war.
— What does the implementation of such scenario give them?
- It is possible to note a number of factors. There is a possibility of active intervention in the region up to input of forwarding forces as peacekeepers and creation of post-conflict structures in the region. Russia will be compelled to allocate part of military, political, diplomatic, economic forces for suppression of again broken out conflict in a zone of the vital interests.
Besides, the USA receives the strategic base at northern borders of Iran and a new leverage to Armenia for the purpose of preventing of its accession to the Eurasian union.
The USA receives also additional leverage to Azerbaijan for the purpose of its full involvement in the course of the American policy and use for transportation both its own and the Central Asian energy resources bypassing Russia to the west. Forwarding forces of NATO under the guise of peacekeepers will be able to take all infrastructure of pumping of the Azerbaijani and Central Asian energy resources to Europe under the control and to reduce volatility of the last one from Russia.
Well and it is possible to expect deterioration of rather stable relations of Russia with Turkey with full involvement of the last one in the course of anti-Russian policy of the West.
— What actions can be in such difficult situation? What is your forecast?
- For receiving so big political prizes the USA will put the various pressure upon Aliyev and to accompany his unlimited appetite and ambitions to provoke him to change the status quo by military methods. On the other hand, Aliyev is made sober by both a position of Moscow and reminiscence of a sad fate of the spiritual and ideological brother Saakashvili who was provoked to solve South Ossetia conflict in the military way.
Anyway you won’t envy Aliyev. He appeared between Washington and Moscow, between pressure of the first to begin military escalation and the requirement of the second to keep stability. As he won’t manage to vary between the devil and the deep sea long and as the opposition between Washington and Moscow, apparently, is tightened for many years, therefore, time will play against Aliyev.
As for Armenia, in this situation we should continue to strengthen army, to strengthen economy, to consolidate society, to keep and develop values of our people and consequently, to build the national and democratic and constitutional state.
We have to strengthen political, economic and military connections with our only strategic ally Russia, to be the active participant of the Eurasian integration, entering into Customs and Eurasian alliances. As recently the Minister of Defence Seyran Oganyan told in one of the performances: «It is obvious that in the near future the military-political environment created round Armenia won’t become safer. Therefore, Armenia will continue to multiply consistently the potential for coercion to the peace».
— How did the Armenian society behave in a hard time?
- Society understood the danger of current situation, saw that further succession of events can lead to a tragic outcome. For this reason it was consolidated round the president who is the Supreme Commander. Many people, especially young, were ready to go immediately to areas of military actions, they declared the desire to register in volunteers. Veterans of military operations in Karabakh told the word too.
It is very indicative that these days the structures in which our transatlantic «partners» invested money fell silent and who according to them sought to promote construction of civil society in our country. And actually the network of agents and the antinational and anti-state organizations was created. Firstly, they tried to spread panic, to accuse the leaders of the republic and even Russia, undertook to criticize idea of the national state. It was direct provocations! Even certain «march of the world» was tried to be organized. In fact, this is simply the open treachery!
And here that is characteristic: usually all their «initiatives» are discussed long in social networks. And they were forgotten somehow at once. They became interesting to nobody except a small group of the accomplices. It occurred just because we observe the powerful consolidation of patriotic forces in Armenia today.