Islamic state is uncontrollable geopolitical weapon

An Islamic state’s attempts to extend the influence on the North Caucasus are doomed to a failure — there are interests, traditions, heads who don’t want to share the power with someone else. The political scientist, the president of the Centre of System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko answers the questions of «World and We».
— What is the influence of the Islamic state’s ideology on Muslims of Russia and what do they think of this movement?
They have the extremely moderate impact on Muslims of Russia. It is clear they know about this ideology, but, it is obvious this ideology gains the greatest distribution in the destroyed states where there are no opportunities for normal life where there is a civil war and the machine gun is an instrument of labour and mean of production.
Part of the radical Russian Muslims go to be at war on the party of ISIL. But it belongs not only to the Russian Muslims — almost the radical fighters around the world, the separate Islamic organizations go there to be at war. Therefore I wouldn’t tell today the Islamic state’s ideology has some serious impact on Muslims of Russia.
But thus it is necessary to consider rather close location of the conflict centre where the IS and its obvious orientation affects the Russian territory. Islamic state advanced a plan of an exit both to the Caucasus and to Central Asia and even not only statements, but also attempts of implementation already were. Therefore the matter demands continuous monitoring and supervision.
— Not so long ago the Islamic state declared about the province creation, «vilayet» in the territory of the Caucasus. What consequences can have such statements?
It has only one consequence — FSB has to show consideration for it. This organization has enough forces and means not to allow the implementation of these plans.
In the North Caucasus the situation is rather stabilized. There is some number of irreconcilable fighters who are caught and killed, there is some Islamic underground. But it is not always close to ideology of the Islamic state, they have interests, traditions, heads who don’t want to share the power with someone else.
Besides, it is already an agonizing underground therefore FSB has enough forces and means not to allow the implementation of the Islamic state’s plans in the North Caucasus.
— Often ISIL is designated as the geopolitical weapon, first of all directed against Russia in the long term and now. Do you agree with that point of view?
I don’t think it can be qualified as the geopolitical weapon directed against Russia. Any weapon is two-edged. Once Al-Qaeda was directed against Russia, and then started being at war generally against the USA though didn’t forget about Russia too.
Besides, the Islamic state is structure which is very difficult to control, especially after it expanded, received own sources of the income.
It is known the Islamic state’s operations are performed not so much against Russia, as rather than in the territory of the Big Middle East states. Actions of ISIL are directed against Iraq occupied with Americans, against the pro-American government of this country, against the pro-Russian government of Syria, against quite independent government of Iran and against absolutely pro-American government of Turkey.
In this situation they are at war with everyone. Therefore it is impossible to claim that the Islamic state can’t be exploited by someone. They have own, absolutely accurate problem of creation of the world Islamic caliphate. But ISIL can be blocked with various forces to exploit them.
— What is the relationship between pan-Turkic policy of Turkey and the Islamic state’s activities for distribution of the influence on the same territories of the North Caucasus and Central Asia?
There is no relationship between these directions. The Islamic state is an obvious attempt of creation of the world Islamic state on the basis of ideology of radical Islam, the beginning of war for Islamization of the whole world. And the ideology of pan-Turkism was used by Turkey in the mid-nineties for the purpose of penetration attempt into Central Asia, to the Caucasus and even Great Turan creation. But Turkey wasn’t able to offer these states neither the economically profitable plan, nor serious economic support, nor to provide them serious military protection.
Therefore all these states remained in a sphere of influence of Russia after creation of SCO where all of them entered and where there is a distinct Russian-Chinese domination, all ideas of a pan-Turkism can become isolated only on the territory of Turkey actually.
For this reason it is impossible to speak about equal influence of these two directions on this region. They have absolutely different history, purposes and ways of influence. But also they have no chances for realization in connection with the growing influence of Russia in this region.