Military exercise «Sea Breeze 2019». Ukraine is aimed.

In July 2019 in the north-western part of the Black Sea ,in Nikolayev , Kherson and Odessa regions there will be held the largest for the recent years Ukrainian – American exercises “Sea Breeze 2019”. Innovative part of the current exercises will be training of the river tactics.

According to the exercise script the enemy will try to block the exit to the sea on the part of the largest river of the Europe which is Danube. Petr Poroshenko actively supported and promoted annual exercises with the NATO countries. Are they necessary for the modern Ukraine?

In February of 2019 Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine voted for the draft of the law about the permission of the participation on the territory of Ukraine of units of the Armed forces of foreign states. This year six military exercises have been planned(the previous years there were five). As well the Armed forces of Ukraine will take part in 20 military exercises in other countries. Besides, as it was reported earlier, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold almost 250 events and 2000 training exercises (command and staff and tactical exercises and tactical flight training). The Exercises are designed so, that the units of NATO will be present on the territory of Ukraine practically the whole year.

Such permanent military exercises fitted with logics of action of Petr Poroshenko aimed at maintaining permanent mobilizing readiness of the Ukrainian society. However, the latest presidential elections showed that the population were tired to get up and go to bed expecting the war with its eastern neighbor. A great number of if not all voters of Vladimir Zelenskiy voted for the adequate power which won’t be in hysterics and muscle-flexing. Endless military exercises with NATO countries were needed by Petr Poroshenko to demonstrate military support and raise the rating, are they needed by the modern Ukraine? Do the advantages from such a kind of cooperation with the West outweigh the risks this cooperation brings?

Nowadays thousands of ISIL rebels return to Europe. For these fighters of caliphate the war has not been finished. It has changed the form. Now the peaceful population of the countries, which supported NATO during operations in Syria and Iraq, are targeted. To reach American, English and French cities for rebels is difficult. It is simpler to strike where no one expects , but there are hundreds, thousands of American and European military. Taking into account the corruption of the customs officers and border guards, will there the ISIL rebels target Nikolayev, Odessa, Kherson? The western military personnel will have a spare time in the intervals of military exercises in the streets of these cities. Who will deprive the terrorists of the chance to strike there? And of course triggering a warhead a rebel won’t give a thought that under the rubble of the cinema , café or bar there will be not only American , English, French, German but simple citizens of Ukraine.

The other factor is deterioration of the still tense relations with Russia. The louder the words about “the most large scale Ukrainian American exercises “, the more nervous is Moscow , and the stronger its desire to interfere with. Under the conditions of growth of political tension inside Russia , the Kremlin favors to redirect the discontent of the population to the external source. One should not be deceived that the major source of irritation is the American and the Ukrainian. Political and military conflict will strengthen the position of the national leader among the citizens of the country. The Chief of the US Command in Central and Southern America Kreig Faller recently labeled the Russian Federation as bear, who is injured and weakened, as a result of which it can attack. Whom this injured bear could attack? Rhetoric question… Consecutive crisis in relations with Russia will be in favor of Poroshenko team but will it be necessary for Ukraine.Will it need to heat the conflict in Donbass? Will hundreds and thousands of Ukrainian solders perish in the East of the country and their mothers receive “killed in battle” notices?

And at last the major question. Are the joint military exercises with NATO countries guarantor of the security of the country of the post Soviet era? To answer this question one should address to the experience of Georgia. The level of cooperation of the latter was more than Ukrainian. The officers of NATO not only participated in joint military exercises but instructed the military. The Georgian Army was reformed according to the western standards. Besides to Georgia in great quantities the European and American military equipment were supplied. In their turn, the Georgian officers and soldiers participated in military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, where they died for the interests of the World community. It seemed that Mikhail Saakashvili received military and political guarantees. It gave him false hopes of safety and simultaneously infuriated Moscow. What is the result? When it turned to an open military conflict, no western country supported openly Georgia. When Russian tanks rushed to georgian town Gori, the western elites pretended as nothing happened. No political leaders of the first row from the USA and Europe said in favor of military involvement into the conflict. Georgia was defeated and degraded.

Taking into consideration this experience it is foolish to hope that in case of the open conflict with Russia the West will decide to fight on the side of Ukraine. The country is interesting for American as a military base as an eastern vanguard. However as the events of recent years show to invest significant means in the Ukrainian infrastructure, Armed forces and fleet they are not ready. According to Petr Poroshenko joint military exercises were logical sequence of Kyev policy , which always declared about its desire to enter NATO. By the by no one expects Ukraine there – the western countries skillfully use Kyev interests in order to occupy the Black Sea and not more than that.

In geopolitical context the USA and European countries get advantage from conflict of Kyev and Moscow to solve their tasks. However they are not ready to side seriously with Ukraine. The same will be in the future. Ukrainian soldiers and officers could heroically fight but these sacrifices under conditions of total corruption and collapse of power could be vain. If for Petr Poroshenko the war with Putin was the major element of political existence then Vladimir Zelenskiy has unique chance to rectify the external political agenda. The example of the former president of Ukraine is indicative of the more you actively embrace with the West the more reserved it relates to you. May be it is worth of showing that Ukraine has its own interests and own pride.