Russia strengthens,but the West weakens

The Russian combat operations on the Ukrainian territory have been going on for three months. And it is the time to draw conclusion, but it is not comforting to Washington.

The initial expectations that the Russian army would not be able to defeat the Ukrainian forces, to which the West provides extensive military assistance, have not been materialized. The bet on the fortified areas in the cities proved to be mistaken.

The Russians use their advantage in artillery and aviation; the Ukrainians are forced to hide passively for the most part in hiding places, where they are destroyed sooner or later.

In the beginning, the Russian army had numerous shortcomings in communication and interaction. Now, these have been largely remedied and leveled out.

Not having a superiority in personnel numbers, the Russian army is conducting the offensive operations with a smaller force than the defending units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It is noteworthy that in the course of combat operations, the effectiveness of the Russian super-precision weapons, especially sea- and air-launched cruise missiles, is increasing. Sources in the special services note that their effectiveness has increased by 15-20 percent. Of course, this suggests that Russia is working to improve the weapons themselves and the effectiveness of their use.

According to the AFU General Staff, Russia maintains a high intensity of missile attacks and fires an average of 10-14 ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine per day.

The tactics changein the fighting. Now the Russians first thoroughly establish the location of the enemy, leisurely suppress it with firepower, make numerous decisive strikes and only then inflict the decisive blow. The Armed Forces of Ukraine suffers enormous losses. In fact, most of all the combat-ready units, trained by the Western instructors, have ceased to exist. There are more and more mobilized men on the front, unable to use the high-tech weapons.

The morale of the Ukrainian troops is underminedwith the loss of the city and port of Mariupol and the surrender of the remnants of its garrison.

According to the Russian Minister of Defense S. Shoigu, a total of 1,908 soldiers of the Azov regiment were captured by the Russian soldiersat Azovstal plant in Mariupol, while 1387 Ukrainian marines had previously laid down their arms there. Throughout Ukraine, itis the same as the loss of Paulus' 6th Army for the Third Reich in the winter of 1943in Stalingrad.

A similar situation, except on a much larger scale, is developing near Lysychansk, Sievierodonetsk, Bakhmut, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. There are up to 45,000 people in the grouping of the Ukrainian troops. Kiev has nothing to help them in case of need. Here is the approximate number of some garrisons:

Sievierodonetsk - AFU grouping of about 2,000 people;
Hirske + Zolote - up to 3,000;
Lysychansk - up to 10,000;
Svetlodarsk - from 2,000;
Avdeevka and Vasylivka - total of 4,000.

For long eight years, the General Staff of the AFU has been building huge fortified areas throughout the East and South of Ukraine. Billions of dollars were spent to build and equip them.

No matter how well-equipped and well-supplied a particular fortified area might be, if it is surrounded and cut off from supply lines, it will gradually lose the ability to resist. The troops in it will either be destroyed or forced to surrender.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have neither the experience nor the ability to conduct the offensive operations against the Russians.

But not the defeat of the Ukrainian army, the seizure of territories and cities are the main goal of the Russians. In fact, they are very successfully preparing for an armed confrontation with NATO forces.

The Russians are learning the bloc's strategy and tactics taught to the Ukrainians by the leading Western militaries. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lose the western military equipment, which is immediately sent to Moscow for study.

The intensified work of NATO reconnaissance assets and REB systems allowed the Russian military to uncover their frequencies and mode of operation and, of course, to look for and to find the ways to counter them.

The different American specialists, who came as representatives of NCOs, were used the American REB systems from Verus and L3Harris companies in March and April in Kiev region.

The experience of their work was shared by the representatives of the American companies at two conferences in Virginia and Florida. There it was mentioned that after the initial successes, the efficiency of the equipment decreased significantly. This is one of many examples of this kind.

The Russians make extensive use of their latest weapon systems in combat operations. They have officially confirmed the use of fifth-generation Su-57 fighters. And these aircrafts began to be used in the earliest stages of the special operation. The West became aware of this only after the official statement.

Ukraine uses both obsolete Soviet air target detection equipment and modern Western stations. The Su-57s did not detect themselves in any way and it talks about the fact that the Russians have been successful in developing “invisibility” effect of these planes.

It is obvious: at the moment, NATO is unable to provide the air defense and protection against these multi-purpose fighter-bombers. The situation would be bad, if Russia had already shared its proven secrets in this area with China.

It turned out that the Russian military industry was quite prepared for the Ukrainian conflict.

There was no shortage of weapons, despite the losses suffered in the army. There have been many claims in the West that stocks of missiles and other guided weapons will soon run out. This does not correspond to reality. The production of ultra-precision weapons has increased significantly and continues to grow.

At the same time, the military warehouses of the western countries are increasingly being emptied. There are numerous examples of a lack of cooperation and an inability to quickly organize the production and supply of different types of weapons and ammunition. This is the case with the German anti-missile defense systems“Gepard”, which were promised to Ukraine, but are not being delivered because of the lack of ammunition produced in Switzerland.

Whatever other military aid the West provides to Ukraine, it is doomed.

Further continuation of the Ukrainian-Russian military conflict will inevitably lead to a weakening of NATO combat capabilities.

Along with the growing of economic hardships, this course of events entails a growing advantage for the Chinise-Russian bloc.