Zurab Todua: the Westerners won't stop before extreme measures if necessary!

The parliamentary elections in Moldova will pass soon. Already now much attention is paid to them: all understand that the future of the republic depends on an outcome of these elections. The historian and the political scientist Zurab Todua who is the deputy of parliament of RM commented the situation for our portal.

— In your opinion why do the present parliamentary elections in RM draw such close attention in many countries?

- The matter is that Moldova, together with Georgia and Ukraine, is among the states which the West intended to pull out from the sphere of traditional influence of Russia throughout several centuries. Within five years Washington and Brussels were fostered carefully by the westernized regime in Moldova and now their main goal is to hold this group in power after elections which are planned for November 30.

— How does the election campaign take place?

- While it is quite enough, without serious scandals and it is surprising. However, there are one and a half months before completion of campaign, most likely, the main events will be developed in November and pre-election fight will become more intense and rigid. The first signs of it already appeared — threats from representatives of ruling group to repeat the events on April 7, 2009 (then the many thousands crowd of supporters of the parties which are nowadays in power set fire to buildings of parliament and the presidential apparatus).

— There is a point of view that the same parties which are presented in it will go to parliament. In your opinion, can other political force appear there?

- The Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, Liberal Democratic Party, Democratic Party and the Liberal Party most likely will go to parliament. From new forces a Party of Socialists and party which was led by the businessman Renato Usatii («Patria») most likely will be there. Emergence on a political field of the country of R. Usatii, the person who was known by very few people else at the beginning of a year is the evidence of that the number of people who were disappointed both in power and in opposition grows in Moldova.

-Is it possible to create the pre-election coalitions?

- The elective legislation allows the creation of the coalitions. The pre-election coalition «For Customs Union» which is headed by bashkan (head) of the Gagauz autonomy Mikhail Formuzal and the chairman of Social Democratic Party Victor Shelin take part in campaign. However under the law, the pre-election coalition has to break a barrier in 9 percent of votes (for parties — 6 percent). It isn’t enough chances to break such high barrier. Therefore, as a rule, all parties prefer to create the coalitions after elections.

- Will the alignment of forces change the ruling Alliance? What is the difference of parties, its components?

- The present coalition consisting of three parties — Liberal Democratic Party, Democratic Party and the Liberal Party — most likely will cease to exist after elections. It will be succeeded by other coalition. What it will be is difficult to predict. Any options including the left and left-centrist coalition are theoretically possible. Differences between the parties making the Coalition of the Pro-European Policy are insignificant.

The Democratic Party positions itself as the party which is standing up for social justice, support of the unprotected segments of the population etc. In practice it is ordinary right party, defending interests of the oligarchic capital. Liberal Party adheres the unionist positions. All three parties encourage Russophobia in this or that form and support the European vector of integration though its price is destruction of economy and loss of the sovereignty.

- Is the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova the main rival of Alliance? Is it capable to unite national and patriotic forces round itself?

- Protest potential is quite high. The course of the present power in domestic and foreign policy is opposed by more than a half of the population of Moldova. In particular, sociological polls testify that about 55−60% of citizens of the country are the supporters of the entry of Moldova in the Customs Union. At the same time the political forces supporting rapprochement with Russia and the entry of Moldova in Customs Union and then in the Eurasian Union are shattered. National and patriotic forces go on elections by several «columns». However, there is no unity on the right flank also.

- Does the unionism exist in pre-election subject?

- In Moldova there are some parties which openly support elimination of the Moldavian statehood and accession of the country to Romania. The most known of them is the Liberal Party. On elections of 2010 LPM got 10 percent of votes. In general the unionism subject is unpopular in the country. Since 1991 the number of supporters of Moldova absorption by Romania increased slightly from 5−7% approximately to 12−15%, despite huge efforts and expenses which were made by Bucharest. Moreover, for the period of elections the Liberal Party tries not to focus attention on the unionism subject in order not to irritate the people. The tendency of the last years is to mask the unionist idea of «European integration». As a rule, the frankly unionist parties receive the 100-th shares of percent on elections.

-Are any forecasts about a probable outcome of elections?

- Parties of ruling coalition — Coalition of the Pro-European Policy are — are capable to get about 40−45 percent of votes. At the expense of an administrative resource, manipulations with bulletins on foreign polling stations and also frauds with passport data of those who left on earnings, they can add still 5−7 percent to themselves.

The Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova will take about 30−35 percent. The Party of Socialists and the party of Usatii can receive on 7 — 10 percent. Though it must be kept in mind that the ruling coalition still didn’t lose hope to remove the socialists or R. Usatii from a distance under any pretext. Thus, the deal between the right-wing and left-wing parties in future parliament will be approximately equal in structure and character of future coalition will become clear during secret negotiations in December.

The most comfortable conditions were created before elections by the main sponsor of Democratic Party, the oligarch with ambiguous reputation (a mistrust rating according to polls is about 80%) Vlad Plakhotnyuk. He providently brought supporters to himself (hidden and open) practically in all parties which have chances to go to parliament.

In general, having analyzing the course of election campaign in Moldova it is necessary to understand that the USA and the EU will make all possible efforts in order that future coalition would be westernized. In case something goes not as they would like, they have an opportunity to start the scenario of dissolution of parliament by means of absolutely puppet figure of the president of RM N. Timofti. Also the scenario of «Maidan» under the pretext of preservation of «pro-European course» isn’t excluded. The example of Ukraine and many other states which couldn’t show resistance to external intervention shows that the Westerners don’t stop before extreme methods and means for achievement of the purposes if necessary.